Felix Images and Models

As category five hurricane Felix continues to move east near 18mph the storm continues its symmetrical presentation on satellite as seen below, a classic hurricane.



At this point Felix will have fluctuations in intensity, as all major hurricanes do, caused by eye wall replacement cycles. These cycles are not really predictable but are signaled usually by concentric eye walls, with the inner one "collapsing" and the outer wall taking over. As the new eye starts to contract that is when you will see a decrease in barometric pressure followed by an increase in wind speed. Below is the latest graph on what the intensity models are predicting. (Graphic from University of Colorado)


As far as the future path, models are very consistent for the next three days but after that there is a pretty good spread. Tomorrow we will look at the later forecast in greater detail. Below is the latest track guidance from the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD).


One other area of interest is the system called 98L. Though thunderstorm activity is very minimal there is a distinct low center. If this holds together for another couple of days this could become our next depression as environmental condition may improve for development.