Cooling Off

The cold front came through today with no real impact. Some rain and wind but nothing severe. This will be the first of two cool nights so there will be plenty to enjoy.

Cold Front Approaching

Going to bed in a minute so a very quick update. Cold front is moving across the state and a tornado watch is in effect for parts north of Orlando.

Will do quick updates on Twitter tomorrow with a more complete update tomorrow night.

Olga Now an Open Wave

As of 10PM Olga is now an open wave. This should now conclude the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I will put out a recap in the over the weekend. Just for fun though here is one last model map for Olga.

The weekend's weather is looking very interesting at this point. Tomorrow and Friday we will see an increase in moisture due to an inverted trough associated with Olga coming over us. This will be followed by a fairly strong cold front brining the coldest weather so far in December for south Florida. Lows on Sunday and Monday night I am forecasting to be in the upper 50s.

Tomorrow I will post on the chances for some stronger weather in connection with the cold front on Saturday/Sunday.

Olga is Weakening and Possible Interesting Weather

Olga is looking pretty weak right now and may be downgraded later today. Also looking like we may coold down on Sunday but not before some interesting Weather sweeps across on Saturday. I will have more pneumonia both of these topics later today. Stay tuned.

Olga Now a Tropical Storm and an Interesting Model Map

A recon aircraft checked out Olga this evening and found that she has acquired tropical characteristics with winds of 60 MPH.

I posted tonight's model map to watch the evolution of the track of Olga. The dynamical models continue with the west to WSW path while the other models now indicate a gradual recurvature. Though the official forecast still indicates weakening it would not be impossible for Olga to get caught up in a frontal passage this weekend and track towards the northeast.

It is too early to count Florida out of this equation so check back tomorrow for more updates.

Make that Subtropical Storm Olga

At 10PM located at 18.5N and 65.3W which is about 55 miles east of San Juan. Olga is moving towards the west at 15mph with maximum winds of 40mph. Minimum pressure is estimated at 1006mb.

The future track of Olga is generally west then WSW over Haiti, there will not be much a chance to strengthen.

I will update more in the morning or sooner if there is anything else to add.

Have a great night.

Olga is Born

Tropical storm Olga will be announce later this evening. This is the first December named storm since 2005 when we had Epsilon that carried over from November and Zeta. More details to follow.

Not Over Yet

Ok, for the past two weeks I have been meaning to sit down and write one last blog for the 2007 season. Not so quick I guess since for the past 24 hours I have been watching a very interesting area of weather near the Virgin Islands.

The NHC is issuing statements and the latest satellite imagery is showing the low-level center coming closer to the convection. I would even say it is starting to wrap a little.

We will have to wait a couple more hours tonight to see if the NHC agrees.

Stay tuned, it is not over yet.

Cool Down Coming

We have another cold front that will be moving through the area late tomorrow into Friday morning. This front will give us lows into the upper 50s and highs in the mid 70s through Saturday. So a very refreshing couple of days ahead of us.

A few waterspouts were offshore late this morning into the early afternoon. Here is an article from the Sun-Sentinel.

Finally tonight I added a weather sticker to the blog here. This is information from the home weather station and is updated about once every ten minutes. You can click the sticker to get more detailed information and past data.

Have a great night!

Noel Moving Erratically

As of 11PM Noel is still over Cuba and has slowed down to almost a crawl. Over the past couple of hours Noel has been moving erratically but an overall average motion is towards the NW near 5 mph. At this time it seems the westward motion has ended.

With this current motion and the jet stream preparing to dip into the Gulf of Mexico this should end Noel's westward march and allow the storm to be picked up and taken out to see. For this reason I am forecasting Noel not to come ashore in Florida. The main impacts from Noel should be coastal flooding, windy conditions and very quick moving scattered showers on Halloween. At this moment I do not think that Halloween will be a washout :) But it will be windy.

Since the storm is still to our south we must continue to watch Noel and make sure the forecast verifies, so please check back here and at twitter.com/howpomp

Also for those of you wondering about school on Wednesday, at this time all school systems will be open.

Have a nice night.

No Watches Yet

At 11PM Noel was located at 21.2/75.0 moving NW near 13 mph. Max winds are 50mph with a minimum pressure of 1000mb.

Tropical storm watch could be issued tomorrow morning depending how Noel behaves overnight.

Currently there is about a 30% chance of tropical storm force winds to affect southeast Florida.

There have been no dramatic changes in any of the available models so as I go to bed tonight my previous forecast stands. In the morning there may be some adjusting of this though.

Have a good night.

Latest Models

Here is the latest model plat from the SFWMD. As you can see the is good agreement about Noel approaching Florida, how close? Based on the available data we will see Noel come within 30 miles of the coast before turning away. This is certainly close enough to bring tropical storm force winds over the tri-county area. As I get more data I will post it here.

Twitter Activated

During the threat of Noel I will be posting quick messages on Twitter. You can find the posts at

http://twitter.com/howpomp

From the page you can sign up to receive updates via email or text message.

Possible Tropical Storm Watches for south Florida

This is the first of a couple of updates for tonight and tropical storm Noel. In the 8PM advisory the NHC mentioned that tropical storm watches may be required for southeast Florida. The trend over the past six hours is that Noel may become a bigger threat than previously stated. During the next hour new model data will become available and I will expand from there.

Please stay tuned.

Noel and this Week

TD16 was upgraded to Tropical storm Noel this afternoon in a special advisory at 2PM. Currently winds are up to 60mph as the system moves NNW at 4mph. Minimum pressure is estimated at 996mb.

The future of the storm is very uncertain. There are two main possibilities. The first follows the official forecast and brings the storm through the Bahamas out into the open Atlantic. The second possibility is that Noel meanders around Cuba for the next five days.

There will be a recon flight reaching Noel around 2am and hopefully the overnight model runs may bring some clarity to the eventual track of Noel.

Guess we will see you tomorrow.

Updated Local Forecast

Tropical storm conditions are now forecasted for the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Much more tomorrow as this system evolves.

Tropical Depression #16

TD16 will be announce at 11PM tonight. This is the system south of the Dominican Republic and the one that brought the rain to Puerto Rico Thursday and Friday. It is a bit early to relay on the longer term output of the models but there is a trend starting to bring this storm towards the northwest then north, then possible northeast. This system could affect the Bahamas and/or south Florida the middle to late this coming week. I would not be surprised if we are in the cone by tonight or tomorrow.

Though we are late in the season, we are still in the season so please remain prepared and check for further updates.

This Morning's Rain

This morning for the 7am report to CoCoRaHS we reported 3.72 inches of rain. Most of that came between 2:30am and 6am. It did start to rain around 10pm last night and we had at least two thunderstorms pass through, the first of which was about 2:30am. Road were slightly flooded at 6:45 am but rain drained pretty well.

It is late now but I will be back in the morning for an update on the tropics.

Thursday Severe Weather

Just a quick recap from yesterday's severe weather, 29 tornadoes, 93 hail reports and 167 wind reports. One of the tornadoes was in Pensacola and one of the wind reports were from Brevard county. Near Rockledge an USAF wind tower recorded a 51kt (59mph) wind gust. Here is a map from the SPC showing where the reports came from.

Flood Watch until 6am for Palm Beach County

As mentioned before, Flood watch until 6am and an Urban Flood Advisory for Palm Beach county. Some areas have seen more than two inches of rain tonight with more to come.

More details in the morning.

Flood Watch for Palm Beach County

Flood Watch will be issued shortly for continuing showers over eastern portions of Palm Beach county. A low pressure system has formed off the coast of northern Broward county and is causing the shower activity going on now.

Note that the rainfall total from the weather station might be off a bit, there was no data coming in for the first hour of rain we had. Since then data has resumed and currently we are reading .75 inches for the night. I will report in the morning what is in the manual gauge.

Stay dry ;-)

Rainy Weekend?

TD 15 weakened to an open wave this afternoon and is nearly dissipated. Not much left to talk about on this one.

I think we might see more rain than we expected this weekend. There is a large area of showers to our south over Cuba and extending to Mexico. The cold front I mentioned yesterday is not really visible on satellite and there is some dryer air over central and northern Florida. I do expect a fairly strong easterly breeze over the weekend and think this is what we will need to generate some rain over the weekend. Not a wash out, but most of us will see some rain from time to time.

TD 15

TD 15 formed late this afternoon in the open Atlantic. The official forecast does not call for this system to last very long not strengthen, and I would have to agree with this.

For those of us in Florida it looks like we will have a "cold front " pass over us tomorrow. It really will not have a big effect on us and will probably stall to our south. Breezy conditions will exist due to high pressure building in, so not a bad weekend weather wise coming up.

Rain and a bit More Rain

After being in a Flood Watch for most of the day we have seen the rain abate a bit tonight. Looks like tonight will not be as rainy as we have seen over the past two nights.

The mass of clouds to our east has been labeled system 90L. This area of disturbed weather will likely become our next depression once it crosses the state and emerges in the Gulf of Mexico.

Flood Watch has just been extended until 10am on Tuesday for the tri-county area.

Home weather station went down just after 12 noon due to a power outage so I do not have an accurate rainfall total for today. Try again tomorrow.

Stay dry!

Gabrielle Heading Back Into the Atlantic

As of 11pm all watches and warnings are discontinued for the US. No major damage reported at this time, so on to the rest of the tropics.

There are now three areas to watch as we head into the new week. The most interesting one is well east of Puerto Rico. Some of the models develop and bring this system into the Bahamas later this week. I will be watching this closely so check back tomorrow for an update (or two).

The next area is in the Gulf of Mexico and if this system were to develop it would probably head into Texas. The other area is in the central Atlantic and poses no immediate threat to land.

Subtropical Storm Gabrielle

Slight correction to the previous post. The system is not TD7 but Subtropical Storm Gabrielle with winds of 45mph and a pressure of 1011mb. Tropical storm watches are now issued for portions of the coasts of North and South Carolina.

TD7 Forms

After almost five days of expected development, the area of disturbed weather that has been meandering in the western Atlantic has now been upgraded to tropical depression #7. This will be announced at 11PM for its first advisory.

Tropical storm watches will be issued for areas of the mid-Atlantic coast.

Here is the latest IR image.

Felix Images and Models

As category five hurricane Felix continues to move east near 18mph the storm continues its symmetrical presentation on satellite as seen below, a classic hurricane.



At this point Felix will have fluctuations in intensity, as all major hurricanes do, caused by eye wall replacement cycles. These cycles are not really predictable but are signaled usually by concentric eye walls, with the inner one "collapsing" and the outer wall taking over. As the new eye starts to contract that is when you will see a decrease in barometric pressure followed by an increase in wind speed. Below is the latest graph on what the intensity models are predicting. (Graphic from University of Colorado)


As far as the future path, models are very consistent for the next three days but after that there is a pretty good spread. Tomorrow we will look at the later forecast in greater detail. Below is the latest track guidance from the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD).


One other area of interest is the system called 98L. Though thunderstorm activity is very minimal there is a distinct low center. If this holds together for another couple of days this could become our next depression as environmental condition may improve for development.

No More Recon Data Tonight

There will be no more data tonight from the recon plane since it aborted its mission due to severe turbulence and grouple (ice chunks). I will still have another update in about an hour or so.

Felix Now a Category 5 Storm

At 8PM the NHC issued a special advisory to update the location and intensity of Felix. Winds are now 165mph and the pressure is 934mb. That is a 59mb drop in 21 hours, 46mb in the last 9 hours. This makes Felix the second category five storm this season.

I will have another update when the next recon report comes out.

Felix Image

Not much new in the 11PM advisory. Pressure is 993mb and maximum winds are estimated at 75mph but may be higher. The next recon trip will confirm this. Here is the latest IR image of Felix from 10:15pm tonight.

Hurricane Felix

Tonight at the 8PM advisory the NHC upgraded Felix to a hurricane. Track models are unanimous in taking Felix towards the west and into the Yucatan Peninsula. Intensity models are all over the place. The GFNI and HWFI weaken the storm to a minimal tropical storm over the next few days while the LGEM and SHIPS takes it a mjor hurricane in three days.

Conditions appear very favorable for strengthening and the official forecast brings Felix up to a major hurricane in four days. Some of the last visible images indicated that an eye feature was becoming present.

Elsewhere there is another system I am watching in the mid-Atlantic. This system was looking better this afternoon but the latest IR images are not very impressive so we will see what happens overnight.

Tropical Depression #6

A quick post and I will be back in the morning. TD6 formed late this afternoon east of the Windward Islands. Official forecast has the storm moving generally towards the west for the next five days. This is somewhat on the same path as Dean. TD6 should be upgraded tomorrow to Tropical Storm Felix tomorrow.

Almost all the models depict the same path, but one model to keep an eye on is the HWRF which stalls the storm south of Cuba in four days. We will see what the next run generates and go from there.

Be back in September! (Amazing how fast August past us by.)

Dean Goes South of Jamaica

Jamaica is spared the worst of Dean but is certainly lashing out at the island. At this time Dean is speeding away from the island about 20mph. The latest data from the recon plane indicates the pressure is at 926mb and the highest winds found at this time are 143mph at flight level so that would translate to about 120mph at the surface. Of course that is just a sample of what the aircraft can measure. When the National Hurricane Center announce the wind speed for any storm that also take into account satellite images and surface readings and they come up with the maximum winds for a storm. I would expect the winds to be maintained at 145mph for the 11pm advisory.

Due to work I will not be able to post again until tomorrow night. More then...

Dean from San Juan Radar

Here is Dean from the San Juan radar at 11:18pm EDT.

Category Four Dean

Dean is now a category four hurricane. At 9:30pm tonight the NHC issued a special statement announcing the the recon plane out there now had measured winds estimated at the surface of 145mph. This measurement was used for the 11pm advisory.

The pressure has dropped about 25mb over the past six hours as well as the wind radii expanding in all quadrants.

Jamaica is the next land mass in the forecast track. The official forecast maintains category four status. As far as US landfall it is too early to tell, but at this time there are no expectations of any direct impact from Dean on Florida.

Could South Florida be in the Clear?

At this point it looks like it. The models have been extremely consistent and very agreeable with one another on Dean. Usually over a 24 hour period at least one of the major models will give some doubt to the others but in this case this has not happened. The GFDL did have a run that brought the center out of the consensus but it came back in line on the next run.

So we should see a category two hurricane strike the Lesser Antilles tonight and tomorrow and a category four hurricane near Jamaica on Sunday.

Please remember anytime we have a storm to our east and/or south we must always keep an eye on it. Actually that goes for any storm out there.

Dean is Intensifying

As of 5PM Dean's winds have increased to 65mph and looks as if it is well on its way to become a hurricane by tomorrow. It has trended more to the WNW this afternoon and I will have a further discussion tonight after the 11PM advisory.

Images from Tonight

Here are the latest images of Dean and TD5.

TD5 To Be Announced at 11PM, Dean Update

The NHC will upgrade the system in the Gulf of Mexico to TD5 at 11PM. This should become tropical storm Erin tomorrow. This will pose a threat to southern Texas over the next 72 hours.

Meanwhile tropical storm Dean did not look impressive at all this afternoon may be getting its act together and I am expecting Dean to strengthen overnight and throughout tomorrow. This is also supported by the models. In fact the HWFI takes it to a category five storm in five days.

I am posting this now and will get a couple pictures up in a few minutes.

Tropics Are Now Acting Up

There are two items I am watching at this time. The first is TD4 which formed this morning in the eastern Atlantic. Models are insisting that this system will continue to strengthen and become a hurricane by the end of the week. This system will bar watching as it continues to move mostly in a westward direction. At 11PM TD4 was at 12.0N, 35.0W, winds at 35mph and minimum pressure is at 1005mb. The NHC stated that there has not been much change in organization tonight.

Another area I am watching is in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This area looks like it is becoming organized and could be a depression by tomorrow if this trend continues. Current models take this system into southern Texas or northern Mexico.

Check back tomorrow for further updates, especially on Dean.

NOAA Lowers Forecast for 2007 Hurricane Season

Today NOAA issued their forecast for the remainder of this hurricane season and they have lowered the storm count to 13 to 16 named storms from the initial forecast of 13 to 17 storms.

Not much of a change but if this or Dr. Gray's forecasts were to materialize we are looking at a very busy second half of the season.

Here is a link to the story from the Sun-Sentinel about the new forecast. And here is the official statement from NOAA.

Let's keep in mind that these forecasts are still calling for an above normal active season.

Hot is South Florida/Tropical Update

This weekend south Florida has been under a dome of high pressure that has dried out our air and minimize any normal land/sea breezes that normally form. Today Miami had a record high of 97F and it looks like Pompano topped out at 93F. This mixed with our humidity has given us heat index value between 101F and 107F. Though low 90s is not unusual for the area but anything in the mid and upper 90s is unusual.

Tropics remain somewhat quiet, a couple things I am watching out there but nothing to mention at this moment.

As I stated in my previous post Dr. Gray has reduced his prediction of storms slightly. Here is a link to a story about his new report from the Palm Beach Post.

Dr. Gray Updated Forecast

Dr. Gray will issue an updated forecast tomorrow. According to news reports the new numbers will be revised slightly downward with a total of 15 names storms. That is from 17 his team predicted early this season. More on this tomorrow.

I may also need to look at the Caribbean system again, some data suggests that the area that it is headed into may not be as hostile as I first thought. We will look at this again in the morning.

Tropics Not Very Active

The two tropical waves I have been watching are not growing and are becoming less of a concern. The wave west of the Windward Islands has lost most of its deep convection that it had this morning and is moving into an area less favorable for development. A reconnaissance plane this afternoon did not find a closed circulation so we should not have to worry about this one.

The area of cloudiness in the Gulf of Mexico has not become any better organized and the cloud pattern is not impressive at this time. I will continue to monitor for any flare-ups from both systems.

Also wanted to take a moment to wish Kalie a very happy fifth birthday on Friday!!!

Chantel Becoming Extratropical, The Other Disturbance

Chantel was upgraded to a tropical storm this morning and tonight is becoming extratropical over the open north Atlantic waters. The 11pm advisory is the last advisory issued by them. That was quick.

About 500 miles east of the Windward islands is an area of concern, though nothing immediate for south Florida. This system is moving into an area the appears to favor development, so I will continue to watch it. Models are forecasting this to develop and head towards the west, well south of Florida. Here is an IR image of this system from tonight.

Image of TD3

Here is TD3 in the Atlantic tonight.

Tropical Depression #3

Quick post, TD3 will be announced at 11PM. Initial coordinates will be 35.5N/66.5W max winds 35mph. Minimum pressure 1007mb.

This system poses no threat to Florida or the east coast of the United States.

More Storms on Sunday

Very active weather day this afternoon. One tornado in Miami-Dade county and a funnel cloud over Boca Raton near the intersection of Palmetto Park Road and Powerline Road around 3:35pm. As of now it looks like more thunderstorms will be around tomorrow afternoon so we will have to look at the morning upper air parameters to get an idea of what kind of severe threat we may have. So please check back in the morning.

Also we are watching the area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas. Upper air conditions are starting to become a bit more favorable for development so I will be monitoring this area very closely, again more on this in the morning.

Low Over South Florida

The low that is currently over south Florida is producing some showers over Glades county and not much else at the moment. We had 1.57 inches of rain today, most of which fell before 7am from this system. Due to it being over land and some hostile wind shear development is not expected during the next 24 hours. But as th system moves over the Atlantic waters the shear should relax some and there is some possibility that it could get its act together.

I will have another update in the morning.

Rainy Future

We have been getting some very nice rainfall over the past week. On Tuesday here at Weather Central we had a rainfall rate of 12 inches an hour at 4:40pm. Overall that storm dropped over 2 inches of rain.

As far as tomorrow and Saturday go I think we will see some more heavy rain events. Currently the QPF for south Florida peaks around 2 inches. The system that may bring the heavy rain is being watched by the Hurricane Center and they may send a plane out tomorrow if there is any sign of development. Models have been run on this area and I will continue to monitor. Here is an image of the system from tonight.

Atlantic System Fizzles

The system I mentioned last night has fizzled and will not pose a threat to much of anything. Please check back tomorrow night for an update on this week's forecast, could be interesting if one model ends up being correct. The NAM is indicating possible tropical development by mid-week. This is not likely but will be watched. So please come back tomorrow night for a more complete update.

System Off the Coast of Africa

A very well defined area of low pressure has developed about 600 miles off the west coast of Africa. This system has the potential to develope for the next 48 hours before encountering cooler waters. It is very unusual to have this type of system with this organization for the second week of June.

The GFDL output of this system that ran tonight has it dissipating in the next 6 hours, we will see what happens to this system on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Barry

On the first day of Hurricane Season we get our second named storm, Barry. As of this writing we are having our strongest cell of this system pass over. Winds have been in the 20-25mph range and as of last hour a little over 1.73 inches of rain. That will be higher by the time I get the next update from the station here at Weather Central.

Barry looked so much better this afternoon when the center became visible on satellite and a burst of convection popped up. Tonight on infrared you can see how most of the rain is now removed from the center due to strong southwesterly shear being caused by a trough in the northern Gulf.

My forecast for Barry is right on with the NHC, coming ashore Saturday afternoon north of Tampa. No further strengthening is expected due to the storm structure.

The rain for SE Florida should start to move out by tomorrow afternoon and at this moment Sunday may not be too bad weather wise around here.

Also of note, Lake Okeechobee depth fell .05 feet to 8.89 feet. Rain from Barry should reverse this trend tomorrow.

Just a report of a tornado earlier in Cutler Ridge, power lines down in the area. This occurred around 9:50pm.

Lake Okee Record Low. Low to the Southeast

Just a couple quick notes...Lake Okeechobee hit a record low water level today with a depth of 8.94 feet. This is after tying the low yesterday at 8.97 feet.

Watching the area of disturbed weather to our southeast that will bring some much needed rain to the area. After looking at all the available model data tonight looks like the system will not become very potent. The actual track of the system appears to be towards the central west coast of Florida, this is after a some relocation of where the center of the system is supposed to be towards the east. This gives the impression that the area is heading more towards us. By tomorrow morning we will see rain in the area and will also know how much the storm will strengthen (if any at all) and a better guess of the future location of the weather.

Florida Hurricane Tax-Free Shopping

Here is an article about the tax-free shopping for hurricane supplies in Florida:

Link

June 1 through June 12 are the dates. Be prepared!!

Almost There

Just a few days to go before hurricane season 2007 will be underway. Hopefully by now I was to have had a new web site up, that has not happened. Do not worry I will be posting all the information here. From my personal analysis to model data I will publish here when there is something going on. In between you find almost anything else. Please check back.

Home weather station is back to normal with wind data not being uploaded again. I had to reset the weather station and it came right back up. Nice easy fix this time around. I will also have a link to the home weather data shortly here on the blog.

Have a good night.

A Bit of Rain

I am still getting the blog and a site set up for hurricane season so postings may still be sporadic at best, but I am here.

We did have a thunderstorm overnight around 3am, a very nice surprise. Also saw some scattered showers during the morning and some severe weather out west over the Everglades. Next best chance of rain will be Monday with the passing of a cold front, but at this time it looks somewhat light.

I will leave it at that for now and keep checking for updates over the next few weeks.

Active Weather Sunday

Still trying to get the sites back up but we do have some activity affecting the area on Sunday. A Wind Advisory will be in effect from 11AM through the afternoon for sustained winds above 25mph.

At this time thunderstorms will be around tomorrow with some of them severe. Overnight a squall line may for over the Gulf. By morning we should have an idea of how severe some of the storms may get. Stay tuned...

update

It has been a bit since the last real post. The hows-the-weather website is down and the host service has not responded to my emails. The future is kind of cloudy as to whether this will be resolved.

I have also changed mobile devices, so I am still in the process of switching the settings over. Also I am looking for an email provided that supports direct push.

Finally as I was leaving for a short get away the weather server stopped communicating with the router so updates from the home station are not occuring.

I will update as I get things fixed.

test

This is only a test post.

Wx test

Hi therein

Red Flag Warning for Monday

Due to low humidity and breezy conditions most of southeast Florida is under a Red Flag Warning. This is in effect from 11am through 7pm when relative humidities will be under 35% for four or more consecutive hours.

We will have a cool night tonight with lows around 53F and a slightly cooler night tomorrow night. Warming trend will begin on Tuesday.

Record Highs on Saturday

We did have a couple of record highs on Saturday. FLL hit 89F and MIA
reached a record 90F.

22 Tornadoes and Still Counting

A very tragic weather day as we have seen 22 tornadoes and at least seven deaths throughout the southeast today. The Storm Prediction Center has done a fantastic job today getting the watches out. This morning they had issued a public severe weather outlook to warn of today's weather dangers.

Even at this point of the night there are still three tornado watches in effect for parts of north Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina. At this moment three counties in Georgia are under tornado warnings.

As far as south Florida we may see some showers overnight before a very warm Friday. Some areas may even see record highs as temperatures will be in the upper 80's to about 90F.

And for those checking the home weather data, the temperature sensor is not reporting so there is no temperature, humidity or dew point data. I will try to get this fixed in the morning. That is after I mow the lawn :)

All Warnings Have Expired or Have Been Cancelled

Broward is now clear of all warnings. Still a chance of more storms this afternoon.

Moving Off Shore

A few storm reports have come in already with an official sighting of a tornado in Tamarac and a good amount of hail reports. Below is the list so far this afternoon from the NWS:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
           ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             FORT LAUDERDALE         26.12N 80.15W
02/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

           QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED NEAR INTERSECTION OF
           COMMERCIAL BLVD AND US 441.

0155 PM     TORNADO          TAMARAC                 26.21N 80.27W
02/28/2007                   BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

           REPORTED BY SPOTTER ID PB50609. SPOTTER SAW THE TORNADO
           OUTSIDE THE WINDOW NEAR PLEASANT HILL LANE.

0200 PM     HAIL             LAUDERDALE LAKES        26.16N 80.20W
02/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       BROWARD            FL   PUBLIC

           REPORTED NEAR US 441 AND OAKLAND PARK BLVD.

0202 PM     HAIL             FORT LAUDERDALE         26.12N 80.15W
02/28/2007  E1.00 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

           SPOTTER ID BR166 REPORTED HAIL COVERING THE GROUND AT THE
           GOVERNMENT CENTER AT BROWARD AND ANDREWS.

0205 PM     HAIL             FORT LAUDERDALE         26.12N 80.15W
02/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

           HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE
           AIRPORT.

0206 PM     HAIL             FORT LAUDERDALE         26.12N 80.15W
02/28/2007  E0.88 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

           REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN FORT LAUDERDALE BY SPOTTER BR220.

0210 PM     HAIL             FORT LAUDERDALE         26.12N 80.15W
02/28/2007  E1.75 INCH       BROWARD            FL   TRAINED SPOTTER

           REPORTED AT A1A AND SUNRISE BLVD.

0213 PM     HAIL             FORT LAUDERDALE         26.12N 80.15W
02/28/2007  E1.50 INCH       BROWARD            FL   PUBLIC

           REPORTED NEAR DAVIE BLVD EAST OF I-95.

Update from NWS

WWUS52 KMFL 281913
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
210 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

FLC011-281930-
/O.CON.KMFL.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070228T1930Z/
BROWARD FL-
210 PM EST WED FEB 28 2007

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EST FOR
NORTHEASTERN BROWARD COUNTY...

AT 206 PM EST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A TORNADO IN
TAMARAC AROUND 2 PM. THE STORM THAT REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PORT EVERGLADES...OR ABOUT NEAR FORT
LAUDERDALE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

LAT...LON 2628 8034 2634 8027 2631 8021 2631 8007
2625 8011 2607 8011 2601 8024 2628 8037

$$

TINGLER

2:10PM

The rotation has returned, this is why we do not let our guard down. Waiting on reports from Ft. Lauderdale.

2:06PM Radar Update

Radar is now indicating the rotation has diminished BUT that does not mean the situation is over. Warning is in effect until 2:30PM.

Golf Ball Size Hail

.75 inch hail has been reported west of Ft. Lauderdale. Radar at 2:02PM indicates the rotation near the intersection of I-95 and I-595.

Tornado Warning

Currently severe weather heading for downtown Ft. Lauderdale. There is a Tornado Warning in effect until 2:30pm. Hail has been reported west of Ft. Lauderdale.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Broward

In effect now for eastern Broward until 2:45pm.

Not Much

There seems to have been only one report of severe weather this afternoon and that was of half-inch hail in Boca. The atmosphere stabilized due to the cloud cover so besides a few thunderstorms there was not too much out of the ordinary today.

There could be a few thunderstorms overnight so keep the NOAA weather radios active.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch Until 7PM

We are in middle of a Severe thunderstorm Watch at this time. I did send a few updates to the blog via email this morning and they have not yet posted. Showers and thunderstorms are now popping up over NE Broward and SE Palm Beach counties.

We did have one Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Broward this afternoon. The next couple of hours we will see the activity peak. Stay tuned.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Until 2PM for NE Broward.

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Today

Looks like the atmosphere is becoming more unstable and now there is a
chance of a severe thunderstorm or two this afternoon. NWS in Miami
just updated the HWO and highlighted this chance of severe weather.

More updates to come.

Some Strong Storms Today

Looks like a repeat of yesterday with some scattered t-storms. Not much
of anything on radar at the moment, but I am watching.

Some Strong Storms

After a humid start to the day rain did set in this afternoon along the east coast. Some of these storms were strong and there were reports of hail in Palm Beach county.

Here at weather central we had .28 inches of rain while PMP reported .01 inches. We should see some more showers and thunderstorms tomorrow, with a slight chance of a couple of them being strong. I will give an update in the morning when the soundings come out.

Have a good night.

Which was Colder? Saturady vs. Monday Morning

A few time over the past few days I have overheard people discussing how yesterday morning was colder than Saturday morning. In some areas that was true, but here at Weather Central and at PMP (Pompano Airport) it was the opposite. In fact it was officially 39F Saturday morning (that is when I had ice on top of the cars) and 43F Monday morning (no ice) at PMP.

The cooler weather is over for now. After a high today of 72F we should see the upper 70s tomorrow and around 80 to the lower 80's for the rest of the week.

Enjoy the warm-up!

Clouds Forming

As I was driving home tonight from work I noticed clouds rolling in.
This is associated with the cold front approaching the area. But this
will also cause our lows not to be so low.

The clouds will act like a blanket and trap what little warmth we had
today. So instead of our lows being around 40 like last night, we
should see 45 to 47 instead. As of 1am it was 50F at PMP.

Tune in again tomorrow.

Ice on Cars

We did have some ice on the roofs and spotty ice on the windshields of
the vehicles this morning. A fairly rare sight around here. Could see
a repeat on Monday morning.

Low of 42F at weather central and 41F at PMP. Not as cold tonight but
another cold front will come through tomorrow.

Frost or Not

Ok, today was cold. I had to break out the jacket this afternoon. Ft. Lauderdale broke a record high minimum with a reading of 63F. The old record was 67F.

As of 11PM at PMP it was 50F and here at weather central it is 52F and a dew point of 39F. So we should get down to 44F by sunrise. This may just be cool enough for a bit of frost on the windshield in the morning if the sun does not hit it.

The cool/cold weather will continue through Monday when a slight warm up will begin and continue through the middle of the week. We could see another cold front on Thursday but at this point it does not look to be as potent as the one that went through yesterday or the one we will get on Sunday.

At this time we do have a Freeze Warning for the western portions of Broward and Pal Beach counties and a Red Flag Warning during the day tomorrow.

Check back in the morning for the run down of the low temperatures.

Stay warm :)

Windy and Cloudy Monday

After an afternoon and evening of rain (.98 inches at weather central)
we woke up this morning to clouds and wind. A Wind Advisory is in
effect until 7PM for areas east of I-95. Also beach goers need to be
cautious of rip currents today as well.

Clouds will hand around until tomorrow and we should see a little more
warmth, mid 70s, and more sun as we get to Wednesday and beyond.

Two F3 and One F1 Tornado in Central Flrorida

Very busy weather day in central Florida on Friday when severe storms swept through the area during the early morning. The latest data indicated that 20 people lost their lives. A detailed report of the weather event can be found here from the NWS in Melbourne, Florida.

Not as Cold?

So, last night/this morning PMP had a low of 51F and here at Weather Central the low before a computer problem at 7:02am was 54F. A few degrees warmer than expected. Now tonight we are at 51F at the airport and 54F here, right where we were this morning, how cold will it get is now the question.

Over the past few hours the dew point has slowly come up and the wind is steady between 4 and 8 mph. I think it is safe to say that we will be around 47F when around sunrise. Easily 5 degrees higher than forecast.

After tonight a gradual warming trend and possibly back into the 80s for the weekend.

Stay warm again tonight.

Cooler Weather Setting In

Well the additional rain I mentioned this morning did not occur but the cooler air behind the front did arrive. After peaking around 80F late this morning we are at 61F here at weather central. So how cold will it get tonight? Dew point here and at PMP is 44F and 47F. So a low of 49F should just about do it, except the wind could keep us a bit higher if it does not die down just a touch more.

Tomorrow night/Tuesday morning will be the coldest before our late week warm-up. Freeze Watch has already been issued for the western part of Broward and Palm Beach counties so check back tomorrow for updates.

Stay warm!

Cold Front Approaching

Cold front has entered NW Broward county as indicated by a narrow band
of showers. After this line crosses the wind will shift outof the NW
and temperatures will hold steady until mid-afternoon then start
dropping quickly there after.

Dense Fog Advisory

Fog is setting in tonight. Somewhat noticible on my way home tonight.
FLL has reported visibilities less than a mile already.

Cold air will be setting in during the day tomorrow, but with rain also
in the forecast would not expect temps below 50 Friday morning.

Heading to Orlando in the morning so we will be watching the fog
situation closely.

Snow Articles

Here are a few that I found about the snow in Florida from 30 years ago:

Sun-Sentinel


And from Central Florida, The Orlando Sentinel.

Enjoy the thoughts of winter.

It Was 30 Years Ago Today (Jan. 19, 1977)

SNOW in Florida. Southeast Florida that is. I can still remember my Mom telling me to go outside and see it. I think I was watching "Captain Kangaroo" and was sick from school that very cold (by Florida standards) day. There was so much excitement about it, though I did not completely understand it. I think it was the first event that did trigger the weather bug in me though.

Since then I can think of only one other time snow was in the forecast for the area, December 24, 1988. The day could be wrong but I did remember a lot of ice that morning and I know I have pictures of that freeze around here somewhere.

Snow in 1977 did not really accumulate but was present in mostly all areas, Miami Beach, Homestead and even the Bahamas. I will post some links tomorrow when the become active from the local papers. In the meantime here is an information statement from the NWSFO in Miami about this great event.

Now back to our springtime winter. where just before midnight it is currently 72F with another warm weekend ahead.

Tsunami Warning for Alaska

Just about to go to bed and got a notice about a Tsunami Warning for
Alaska and a Watch for Hawaii. This is based on an 8.3 earthquake in
the Pacific.

Waiting on CNN to cover this.

Data is Back Up

A simple reboot and data is flowing again :)

Data Interuption

Weather data from the home station is not being relayed to
wunderground.com or any other site for now. I made an adjustment last
night on the router and it reset the IPs but the weather server did not
adjust. I should have it back to normal tonight when I get home.

Turning Cooler

65F outside now and this is the coolest it has been all year. Looking to go down to about 54 by morning. As I mentioned previously this is going to be a very quick cool down since we should be back to about normal temperatures by Thursday and into the 80s over the weekend.

Record High Minimum in Ft. Lauderdale Sunday

Yesterday Ft. Lauderdale had its highest minimum temperatue for the
month of January since records have been kept. The low yesterday was
76F, which was 2 degrees warmer than the previous record.

The excessive warmth will end starting tonight when a cold front
approaches the area bringing rain and cooler temperatures.

One More Warm Day for South Florida

The cold front is on its way. Monday will continue warm but then highs around 70 on Tuesday and Wednesday and a gradual warm up Thursday and Friday into the mid 70s.

At this point next weekend looks very pleasant, but do not hold your breath yet.

As of this moment, 11PM, it just started raining here. Not expecting much as we have a pretty strong southeasterly flow creating a few coastal showers. Not even enough to measure in the rain gauge.

Have a nice Monday!

Continued Warm through the Weekend

Here comes another spring-like weekend. Highs will be in the 78-82 range and lows around 70. This is more like April than January and pretty much goes with what is happening in the eastern half of the US.

South Florida may see a cool down Tuesday of this coming week and I will post more on that over the weekend.

Enjoy!

10 Atlantic Tropical Storms in 2006

Yesterday I noticed on the NHC site that they have revised the count of tropical storms from nine to ten. After a reanalysis it has been determined that a short lived system off the eastern coast of the US was in fact a tropical storm and not just a gale center.

The system was short lived, from July 17 to the 18. Max winds were estimated at 45mph and a minimum pressure of 998mb. The system will remain unnamed but becomes an official part of the 2006 tropical family.

In case you were wondering this storm occurred between Alberto and Beryl. Full report is available here.

Happy 2007!

A new year and a new home for my blog. I am moving the weather blog to here at blogspot.com. This means you can bookmark http://hows-the-weather.blogspot.com for instant access.

The long over due web redesign is underway so please check the main website for hopefully positive changes.

Wishing all of you the best in 2007,
Howard