Tropical Depression #6

A quick post and I will be back in the morning. TD6 formed late this afternoon east of the Windward Islands. Official forecast has the storm moving generally towards the west for the next five days. This is somewhat on the same path as Dean. TD6 should be upgraded tomorrow to Tropical Storm Felix tomorrow.

Almost all the models depict the same path, but one model to keep an eye on is the HWRF which stalls the storm south of Cuba in four days. We will see what the next run generates and go from there.

Be back in September! (Amazing how fast August past us by.)

Dean Goes South of Jamaica

Jamaica is spared the worst of Dean but is certainly lashing out at the island. At this time Dean is speeding away from the island about 20mph. The latest data from the recon plane indicates the pressure is at 926mb and the highest winds found at this time are 143mph at flight level so that would translate to about 120mph at the surface. Of course that is just a sample of what the aircraft can measure. When the National Hurricane Center announce the wind speed for any storm that also take into account satellite images and surface readings and they come up with the maximum winds for a storm. I would expect the winds to be maintained at 145mph for the 11pm advisory.

Due to work I will not be able to post again until tomorrow night. More then...

Dean from San Juan Radar

Here is Dean from the San Juan radar at 11:18pm EDT.

Category Four Dean

Dean is now a category four hurricane. At 9:30pm tonight the NHC issued a special statement announcing the the recon plane out there now had measured winds estimated at the surface of 145mph. This measurement was used for the 11pm advisory.

The pressure has dropped about 25mb over the past six hours as well as the wind radii expanding in all quadrants.

Jamaica is the next land mass in the forecast track. The official forecast maintains category four status. As far as US landfall it is too early to tell, but at this time there are no expectations of any direct impact from Dean on Florida.

Could South Florida be in the Clear?

At this point it looks like it. The models have been extremely consistent and very agreeable with one another on Dean. Usually over a 24 hour period at least one of the major models will give some doubt to the others but in this case this has not happened. The GFDL did have a run that brought the center out of the consensus but it came back in line on the next run.

So we should see a category two hurricane strike the Lesser Antilles tonight and tomorrow and a category four hurricane near Jamaica on Sunday.

Please remember anytime we have a storm to our east and/or south we must always keep an eye on it. Actually that goes for any storm out there.

Dean is Intensifying

As of 5PM Dean's winds have increased to 65mph and looks as if it is well on its way to become a hurricane by tomorrow. It has trended more to the WNW this afternoon and I will have a further discussion tonight after the 11PM advisory.

Images from Tonight

Here are the latest images of Dean and TD5.

TD5 To Be Announced at 11PM, Dean Update

The NHC will upgrade the system in the Gulf of Mexico to TD5 at 11PM. This should become tropical storm Erin tomorrow. This will pose a threat to southern Texas over the next 72 hours.

Meanwhile tropical storm Dean did not look impressive at all this afternoon may be getting its act together and I am expecting Dean to strengthen overnight and throughout tomorrow. This is also supported by the models. In fact the HWFI takes it to a category five storm in five days.

I am posting this now and will get a couple pictures up in a few minutes.

Tropics Are Now Acting Up

There are two items I am watching at this time. The first is TD4 which formed this morning in the eastern Atlantic. Models are insisting that this system will continue to strengthen and become a hurricane by the end of the week. This system will bar watching as it continues to move mostly in a westward direction. At 11PM TD4 was at 12.0N, 35.0W, winds at 35mph and minimum pressure is at 1005mb. The NHC stated that there has not been much change in organization tonight.

Another area I am watching is in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This area looks like it is becoming organized and could be a depression by tomorrow if this trend continues. Current models take this system into southern Texas or northern Mexico.

Check back tomorrow for further updates, especially on Dean.

NOAA Lowers Forecast for 2007 Hurricane Season

Today NOAA issued their forecast for the remainder of this hurricane season and they have lowered the storm count to 13 to 16 named storms from the initial forecast of 13 to 17 storms.

Not much of a change but if this or Dr. Gray's forecasts were to materialize we are looking at a very busy second half of the season.

Here is a link to the story from the Sun-Sentinel about the new forecast. And here is the official statement from NOAA.

Let's keep in mind that these forecasts are still calling for an above normal active season.

Hot is South Florida/Tropical Update

This weekend south Florida has been under a dome of high pressure that has dried out our air and minimize any normal land/sea breezes that normally form. Today Miami had a record high of 97F and it looks like Pompano topped out at 93F. This mixed with our humidity has given us heat index value between 101F and 107F. Though low 90s is not unusual for the area but anything in the mid and upper 90s is unusual.

Tropics remain somewhat quiet, a couple things I am watching out there but nothing to mention at this moment.

As I stated in my previous post Dr. Gray has reduced his prediction of storms slightly. Here is a link to a story about his new report from the Palm Beach Post.

Dr. Gray Updated Forecast

Dr. Gray will issue an updated forecast tomorrow. According to news reports the new numbers will be revised slightly downward with a total of 15 names storms. That is from 17 his team predicted early this season. More on this tomorrow.

I may also need to look at the Caribbean system again, some data suggests that the area that it is headed into may not be as hostile as I first thought. We will look at this again in the morning.

Tropics Not Very Active

The two tropical waves I have been watching are not growing and are becoming less of a concern. The wave west of the Windward Islands has lost most of its deep convection that it had this morning and is moving into an area less favorable for development. A reconnaissance plane this afternoon did not find a closed circulation so we should not have to worry about this one.

The area of cloudiness in the Gulf of Mexico has not become any better organized and the cloud pattern is not impressive at this time. I will continue to monitor for any flare-ups from both systems.

Also wanted to take a moment to wish Kalie a very happy fifth birthday on Friday!!!