Tornado Watch Has Ended and So Has Hurricane Season

For most of the afternoon we were in a Tornado Watch. The watch was actually extended by an hour for Broward and Miami-Dade counties while the squall line finished going through the area. For the most part there were no reports of severe weather associated with this feature in south Florida. There were power outages throughout the state and at least one tornado near Celebration.

For the remainder of the night we will see more showers and this will linger through Monday morning. After that skies will clear and the cooler weather will filter in. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the lower 50s.

Before the weather set in today NWS in Miami was asked to do a special upper air observation. The results of this yielded a very interesting depiction for south Florida and played a big part of the reasoning for the Tornado Watch. Here is the chart:



You can see around the 700mb level the sudden change between the temperature and the dewpoint. This is very rare for south Florida and if we had a bit more sunshine to help destabilize the atmosphere we could have had some serious weather around.

The final note tonight is that the 2008 Hurricane Season ends today. I will post some data later this week. The Sun-Sentinel ran a good summary story today and you can find it here.

Have a good night.

Hurricane Paloma

Hurricane Paloma reached a peak intensity his afternoon of 145mph. Around 6PM this evening Palolma came ashore Cuba as a major hurricane. With the 10PM advisory the max winds have decreased to 115mph, still a major hurricane though.

The official 1oPM advisory puts extreme southeast Florida in the cone of concern in say five. This forecast path take Paloma into the Bahamas and then veers back towards the northwest. This type of motion is in reaction to a front that will be approaching our area. As this front interacts with Paloma the structure of the storm will be disrupted and should be weakening at that point.

I will have an update Sunday afternoon.

Tropical Weather in November

Even though we had a good cold front come through last week does not mean we are done with the tropics yet.

There is an area of disturbed weather around the western Carribean Sea and upper level winds appear favorable for some developement.

I will have more tonight.

For Tuesday go VOTE!!!!!
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Record Cold in South Florida

From the NWS in Miami...by the way I just witnessed snow on top of 30 Rock in New York City.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

....RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTED IN MINIMUM AND LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAT BROKE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH.

THESE STATIONS REPORTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT BROKE PREVIOUS
RECORDS FOR TODAY:

NAPLES: 48 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 51 DEGREES IN 1943)
WEST PALM BEACH: 50 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 51 DEGREES IN 1944)
MIAMI BEACH: 55 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 58 DEGREES IN 1943)

THESE STATIONS BROKE THE LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR
YESTERDAY:

MIAMI: 71 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1937)
MIAMI BEACH: 68 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 75 DEGREES IN 1957)
FORT LAUDERDALE: 71 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1943)
WEST PALM BEACH: 67 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 76 DEGREES IN 1997)
NAPLES: 69 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 72 DEGREES IN 2001)

IN ADDITION, THESE COOPERATIVE STATIONS REPORTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAT BROKE THE RECORDS FOR TODAY:

CLEWISTON: 42 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 53 DEGREES IN 2001)
DEVILS GARDEN: 44 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 50 DEGREES IN 2001)
IMMOKALEE: 42 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 49 DEGREES IN 1987)
LABELLE: 43 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 47 DEGREES IN 1957)
POMPANO BEACH: 52 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 56 DEGREES IN 1990)

ALSO, LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS WERE BROKEN YESTERDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COOPERATIVE STATIONS:

CLEWISTON: 67 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 70 DEGREES IN 1957)
DEVILS GARDEN: 65 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 2001)
LABELLE: 65 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1952)
MOORE HAVEN: 66 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 70 DEGREES IN 1943)
POMPANO BEACH: 68 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 72 DEGREES IN 1952)

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Rain and Cooler Weather Ahead

. For those of us in northern Broward rain is currently falling. In the last hour 0.71 inches of rain fell at Pompano Airport. Tonight through Friday we will see rain all across the area with rainfall totals averaging between two and four inches with a few areas possibly getting six inches. A good chance of rain will continue through Saturday into Sunday morning where it looks like we will have our first cold front come through the area drying us out and bringing cooler weather Sunday night. At this point our lows Monday morning will be around 65F and a high Monday of 79F.

I will update Twitter if any warnings are issues and will broadcast any weather headlines as well.

Hurricane Season Not Over Yet

We are late in the season but it is not over yet. Wilma hit south Florida on October 24, 2005 so we must remain aware of the tropics.

Tonight I am watching an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system appeared to be getting better organized this afternoon but over the past few hours there has not been much change. The system should move inland over the Yucatan peninsula for the next couple day. After that it could move into the Gulf of Mexico and from there some models bring a weak tropical storm to the west coast of Florida. Other models do not develop the system and some bring the system further west into Mexico.

I will continue to monitor the system so please visit again tomorrow for more.

October

The tropics are quiet right now but an interesting fact from the NWS is that October is the most active month for tropical systems to affect south Florida. It was three years ago this month that Wilma came across our area as a category two hurricane.

Dr. Grey and his team at CSU announced yesterday they are updating their forecast and are now predicting three named systems with two of those being hurricanes one of which being cat 3 or stronger.

Some global models are indicating an upswing in activity in the Atlantic next week so continue to check back for updates.
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Not Yet a Depression

An update from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO INDICATE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE DATA
SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.

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Next System Could be Forming

Just in from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

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Ike Coming Ashore and Watching to the Southeast

The area of disturbed weather to our southeast is being watched for development which is not imminent at this time but we will continue to watch it. Below are the latest model runs which bring it very close to Florida in many cases. Intensity models are split between a tropical storm force system forming or a system that remains relatively weak. Below are the tracks.

I am currently watching live coverage of Ike coming ashore Texas at this time with winds of 110mph. If you have DirecTV you can tune to channel 361 and see the live, local coverage from KHOU-TV. They recently reported 300,000 customers are already without power. Make that 315,000 now.

Also of interest is that their hurricane specialist is Dr. Neil Frank, former Director of the National Hurricane Center.

Check back tomorrow for an update on the system to our southeast. Updates will also be on Twitter.

Live Coverage of Ike

You can listen to KHOU on channel 247 on XM Radio and also live audio and video and DirecTV channel 361.
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Disturbed Area of Weather East of Florida

According the the NHC this area has a 20% (low) chance of developing into a depression as it moves towards the west. Earlier this evening the convection had died down but has come back a bit in the past couple of hours.

Earlier today there were some models run on this system and their output had the system going anywhere towards the north to the west, including south Florida. I will have further updates tomorrow. Please note that there were no model runs on this system tonight but may resume tomorrow if the convection continues. Check back tomorrow for an update.

Houston's Statement for Ike's Landfall

This is from the NWS in Houston, Texas from this evening's Hurricane Local Statement.


LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

A New Area to Watch

A new area of weather has developed in the Atlantic that the models have picked up on. Some of the models bring this system as a tropical storm into our area.

I will have an update later tonight with the current details and model outputs.
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11PM Adisory on Ike

Just read the 11PM package for Ike and the five day forecast point is 26.0/80.0 or just offshore Broward county with 130mph winds with gusts up to 155mph. This is a five day forecast with a large degree of error in both location and intensity

Ike and South Florida

With the 5PM NHC forecast point less than 100 miles off the coast of southeast Florida all attention is turning to Ike. Just looked at the 8PM early cycle models and as they did six hours ago many of them point right into the area. Intensity models of these models range from borderline cat 1/2 up to cat 4 (HWFI and AVN).

The official local forecast has "hurricane conditions possible" for Monday night and Tuesday day. Please take time on Friday not only to keep track of Ike but to go over your emergency supplies and plans and make sure you are ready for Ike. This appears to be our biggest tropical threat since Wilma.

More frequent updates here and through Twitter, stay tuned.

Watching Ike

From this morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook:

HURRICANE IKE LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY MONDAY. IKE IS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS ON
HURRICANE IKE AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD THE HURRICANE THREATENS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

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Hanna Getting Stronger

Just received a report from the recon plane and Hanna now has a minimum pressure of 985mb and winds estimated at the surface near 75mph. She could be upgraded to a hurricane for the 2PM advisory.
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Hanna Getting a Bit Better Organized

Hanna is look somewhat better organized tonight compared to earlier today. As of 11PM maximum winds are 50MPH with a minimum pressure of 997mb. The official forecast calls for Hanna to move in a mostly westerly direction then as she reaches the middle Bahamas turns towards the northwest then north-northwest.

Below is the latest model map from FSU and you can see some consensus on where Hanna may go. But there are couple of outliers, including the very good NOGAPS. If the southerly motion that some of these models are forecasting will have to occur in the next 12 hours or so to be believable. Check back tomorrow morning for more information.

Gustav Getting Stronger, Where is Hanna Going?

I have been watching Gustav become stronger today and a little weaker with the 11PM advisory with a pressure of 948mb and maximum winds at 140mph. The forecast from the NHC is for Gustav to become a category 5 hurricane tomorrow and at least maintain category 4 status through landfall on Monday or Tuesday along the northern Gulf coast.

Hanna on the other hand was moving erratically late this afternoon and this evening. As of 11PM her maximum winds were at 50mph and the pressure has remained steady at 1000mb. The forecast track is still uncertain but south Florida remains in the forecast cone. The official forecast call for Hanna to continue moving in a more westerly direction until Wednesday when Hanna turns towards the northwest and is located in the eastern Bahama late Thursday. The forecast is certain to change as the models get a better handle on her so please check back for more tomorrow. Intensity forecast for Hanna does not strengthen her beyond a tropical storm at this time though there are a good number of models who do.

If you have not done so already please make sure you are prepared for whatever may come your way.

Gustav Now a Cat 4

From the NHC:

HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

....GUSTAV BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...WESTERN EYEWALL DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST...NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

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Funnel Cloud East of Pompano Beach

This morning I took the above photo from the parking lot at Costco in Pompano Beach, Florida. From where I was it appeared to be a funnel cloud but later the NWS stated that it was a waterspout. Special thanks to Clare, Kalie and Jamie who were with me at saw this event.

Of course when I spotted this I called the NWS and they shortly thereafter issued a Special Marine Warning and a strongly worded Special Weather Statement which included:

..WATERSPOUT DUE EAST OF POMPANO AIRPORT AT 956 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WATERSPOUT DUE EAST OF THE POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS SHOWER WAS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST IN BETWEEN POMPANO BEACH AND DEERFIELD BEACH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT... LIGHTHOUSE POINT... DEERFIELD BEACH... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE WATERSPOUT MOVES ONSHORE IN WHICH CASE A TORNADO WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

The waterspout did not come ashore and the event that began at about 9:50am ended just before 10am.

Here is the Local Storm Report detailing the event:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 
  
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON 
  
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. 

           ..REMARKS.. 

0953 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 E POMPANO BEACH       26.23N 80.09W  
08/23/2008                   AMZ651             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER  

           SPOTTER BR264 REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OFFSHORE POMPANO  
           BEACH VIEWED FROM I-95 AT SAMPLE ROAD. 

0955 AM     WATER SPOUT      2 E POMPANO BEACH       26.23N 80.09W  
08/23/2008                   AMZ651             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER  

           TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WATERSPOUT EAST OF POMPANO BEACH 
           VIEWED FROM COPANS ROAD. 

Fay continues its track across Florida and is looking better than ever. Maximum winds are now 65mph with gusts to hurricane strength near Lake Okeechobee reported. The weather is calming down here in southeast Florida but getting more interesting for central Florida where there is currently a Tornado Warning in effect for several counties until 2:15PM.

Live Blog - Good Night

Thanks for reading my blog tonight. Time for bed. Depending on conditions we might try to do this again.

Fay at 11PM

Here is the 11PM summary of Fay:

25.3 / 81.9

Moving north at 9mph.

Pressure 995mb.

Winds at 60mph.

FLL - 20 KTS Last Hour

Fort Lauderdale had the strongest wind last hour with a reading of 22 knots (24mph). Rain has just begun here at the house.

Activity Approaching

Here you can see the feeder bands lining up for the next couple of hours. The official center of the storm is about 50 miles off the coast of Naples. Landfall will be tomorrow morning.

We are less than 30 minutes away from the next advisory and forecast pachage.

Rain is About to Begin Again

After a break from any significant weather radar is indicating that we have some coming ashore. Channel 7 is currently on showing all the people at the beach today.'

Two Tornado Warnings currently in effect, the one for Broward expires in three minutes.

Tornado Warning - Central Collier Conty

Until 10:30pm.

Tornado Warning - South Central Broward County

Tornado Warning until 10:15PM.

Recon Update

Latest message from the recon aircraft:

Location 25.0N/81.9W
Pressure 997mb
Max flight level winds were 58 knots in the southwest quadrant at 9:15PM ET.

Watch Update

SPC states that the severe threat remains for the entire watch area.

STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 837

VALID 190130Z - 190240Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..KERR..08/19/08

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

Currently in Pompano

Pompano Airport at 9PM (actually 8:53PM) had a temperature of 77F, barometer reading of 1010.2 (29.83 inches) and the wind is out of the east at 15mph with a gust of 23 in the past hour.

We are currently cloudy with no rain at the moment.

Waterspout Has Knocked Out Power in Hallendale

Here is the story from the Sun-Sentinel. They report this occured around 5:30PM.

Live Blog - Tropical Storm Fay

I am on the east coast but we are getting a good amount of weather over here. Just had a squall line drop .19 inches of rain since 8:04PM. Currently cloudy outside and radar indicates more rain shortly. Since 7AM we have had 2.33 inches of rain.

I am going to "live blog" for a while so check back for updates.

Tropical Storm Watch Issued

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties. I will have an expected weather break down tonight. Please keep an eye on the Twitter box for quick updates and use today to prepare for the storm.

Morning Models for Fay

There has been a shift to the east of the models this morning towards the east. If this trend continues then southeast Florida could see more of the core of the storm. Also the intensity models are showing a higher confidence that Fay could be a hurricane as it approaches Florida regardless which path she may take.

ALL INTERESTS in southern Florida must pay close attention to Fay.

Next advisory will be at 11am and the highlights will be over on the left side under the Twitter updates.

Stay tuned!

Depression Appears to be Forming

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER
OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

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New Depression or Tropical Storm Tomorrow

Very quick note tonight. The system I have been watching all week and have been predicting to develop appears to be getting better organized and at this rate should be a tropical depression tomorrow morning and a tropical storm by afternoon or early evening. The only thing that could hinder this would be interaction with Puerto Rico.

I will update tomorrow evening at the latest with my prognosis with this storm (Fran) and its possible impacts on south Florida. If you have not yet started to get your emergency supplies please take some time to do that tomorrow.

New Systems in the Atlantic

As we approach the middle of August we are seeing activity ramp up in the Atlantic. The most notable is currently know as 92L. This system has become a bit better organized during the afternoon and evening. If this trend continues then the NHC may send a plane out tomorrow afternoon. Below is the current model map from The Weather Underground.

This is also an area of disturbed area west of this system and an area in the southern Gulf of Mexico. I will continue to watch these areas.

Locally we had almost an inch of rain here at weather central and it appears we may see another round of storms tomorrow afternoon. This was our third afternoon in a row of strong thunderstorms sweeping across the area from the west in the afternoon, today's rainfall was the greatest of the days.

Finally I would like to address a couple of comments about my blog. Some of you have asked why I do not update more frequently or at least on a regular basis. Time is the biggest challenge to posting. I work two jobs and have a great family, all of whom know how much I enjoy studying meteorology and sharing it with others. I do use my Twitter feed for quick and short updates but sometimes there is just not enough time.

I would like to share two blogs that I read on a very regular basis that can fill the gap when I am not around. The first one is from the Weather Underground. Dr. Jeff Master's shares a lot of information and I only wish I could compare this to what he does. The second is a almost daily discussion posted at Crown Weather. Again a very thorough run down of the tropics. Please check them out and bookmark them. You can also find the link on the right side of this page.

Have a good night.

Strong Storms May be Developing Over Southern Florida

From the SPC:


AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091451Z - 091645Z

THE RISK FOR GUSTY AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA
...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE...BETWEEN NOW AND 18-19Z. SOME HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MORNING RAOBS SUGGEST THAT THE VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS...IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. AND...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS...AIDED BY AN AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION IN THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.
WITH 20-25 KT MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST...LIKELY ENHANCING THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR
EASTERN COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MIAMI AND MELBOURNE BECOMES MORE FULLY
MIXED BY 18-19Z. AN OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OUTFLOWS...PROBABLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.
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Tropical Depression 5 Forms

Here is the latest on watches and warnings from the NHC:

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

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Statement from the NHC

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

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Watching Three Areas

Looks like the tropics are starting to become active again with three areas of disturbed weather we are now watching. The first one is around 35W and does not look like it will develop for the next couple of days.

The second is around 55W and is now moving into an ares less conducive for development. This wave could bring some storminess to the northern Leeward Islands in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Finally there is an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico. Pressures are now falling and shear is fairly low. The NHC gives this area a moderate chance of development and they plan on sending a reconnaissance plane into the area later today.

As for south Florida today we are still looking for about a 70% chance of rain. There was a nice thunderstorm offshore Deerfield around 6AM producing some very nice lightning.

Further posts and Twitter updates as we go through today.

Possible Rain on Sunday and Watching the Tropics

Looks like the mostly rain free weekend we had in store may be interrupted by locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms on Sunday. An area of weather to our southeast has been firing up some thunderstorms and this area appears to be heading towards the southeast coast of Florida. Keep an eye on the Twitter feed for the latest.

Tomorrow I will return to discuss the three area of tropical activity we currently have out there.

Funnel Cloud As Seen From Boca

Just before 10:30AM Pompano Airport reported a funnel cloud offshore. As soon as I saw the report I ran outside and started taking pictures of the best funnel cloud I have seen all year. As usual from a distance funnels are very hard to capture due to the contrast of the dark sky where the funnel cloud is. After playing with the image in Picasa tonight I have made the funnel cloud more visible as seen above.

Pompano, Fort Lauderdale Executive and Fort Lauderdale International Airports (PMP, FXE, FLL) all reported funnel clouds/waterspouts/tornadoes during the 10AM hour.

I am still waiting to hear more and if by chance you observed one today please leave a comment on the blog here.

Finally, Dolly will be making landfall tomorrow as a possible catagory two hurricane. I will have more coverage tomorrow and updates via Twitter.

Bertha May Become a Hurricane on Monday

Bertha is heading towards warmer waters with a bit more shear but I do not think that will hold her back from becoming a hurricane on Monday. As of 11PM maximum winds are now 65 MPH and Bertha is heading towards the west-northwest at 19 MPH.

Models have come into very good agreement in turning Bertha towards to northwest then north in about three days. This has been reflected in the current official forecast.

Bertha still needs to be watched so please check back on Monday for the latest.

Watching Bertha

Bertha has yet to turn towards the NW and now is heading west at about 20 MPH. This is outside the majority of the model envelope from 48 hours ago. Though there is good reason to believe a turn will occur in about three days Bertha is now forecasted to become a hurricane in about 48 hours. So until it does turn I will post more frequent updates. There will be a new post tomorrow night with more details and a run down of what is known then.

Sunday and Monday still look unsettled for south Florida with a 70% chance of rain both days. There will be a Twitter update in the morning with a list of any hazards expected.

Good night!

Lightning Safety from NWS Miami

More details on Bertha later. Here are some lightning safety tips from the NWS in Miami. Stay safe this holiday weekend.

....STAY SAFE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

HISTORICALLY SPEAKING, THE MONTH OF JULY IS THE DEADLIEST MONTH FOR
LIGHTNING STRIKES IN SOUTH FLORIDA. WITH SOUTH FLORIDIANS ENJOYING
THE FOURTH OF JULY FESTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND, AND THE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED, NOW IS A GOOD
TIME TO REMIND EVERYONE OF THE DANGERS POSED BY LIGHTNING BY
REVIEWING SOME LIGHTNING PREVENTION TIPS.

FOLLOW THE 30/30 RULE. WHEN YOU SEE LIGHTNING, COUNT THE TIME UNTIL
YOU HEAR THUNDER. IF THAT TIME IS 30 SECONDS OR LESS, THE
THUNDERSTORM IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE DANGEROUS. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY. WAIT AT LEAST 30 MINUTES AFTER HEARING THE LAST CLAP OF
THUNDER BEFORE LEAVING SHELTER. DO NOT BE FOOLED BY SUNSHINE OR
CLEARING SKIES. LIGHTNING ROUTINELY STRIKES UP TO 5 MILES AWAY FROM
THE RAIN AND DARKEST CLOUDS.

THE NUMBER ONE RULE FOR LIGHTNING SAFETY IS: IF YOU'RE OUTSIDE, GET
INSIDE A FULLY ENCLOSED BUILDING. BEING ANYWHERE OUTSIDE IS NOT
SAFE! REMEMBER, OPEN PICNIC SHELTERS AND PAVILIONS OFFER NO
PROTECTION FROM LIGHTNING.

METAL ENCLOSED VEHICLES ARE RELATIVELY SAFE, BUT OFFER A FALSE SENSE
OF SECURITY SINCE YOU CAN STILL GET STRUCK BY LIGHTNING WHILE INSIDE
A VEHICLE. KEEP YOUR HANDS AWAY FROM DOORS, WINDOWS AND STEERING
WHEELS. AVOID LEANING AGAINST VEHICLES. CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILES
OFFER ABSOLUTELY NO PROTECTION FROM LIGHTNING.

GET COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WATER, OFF THE BEACH AND OUT OF SMALL
BOATS AND CANOES. IF CAUGHT IN A BOAT, CROUCH DOWN IN THE CENTER OF
THE BOAT AWAY FROM METAL HARDWARE. AVOID STANDING IN PUDDLES OF
WATER. RUBBER BOOTS OFFER LITTLE PROTECTION. SWIMMING, WADING,
SNORKELING AND SCUBA DIVING ARE NOT SAFE ACTIVITIES DURING
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHEN THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO SHELTER, A MEASURE OF LAST RESORT IS TO
CROUCH DOWN, KEEPING TWICE AS FAR AWAY FROM ISOLATED TREES AS THE
TREES ARE HIGH. THERE IS NO SAFE PLACE OUTDOORS!

AVOID OTHER HIGH AREAS, OPEN SPACES, WIRE FENCES, METAL CLOTHES
LINES, EXPOSED SHEDS AND ANY ELECTRICALLY CONDUCTIVE ELEVATED
OBJECTS.

DO NOT WORK ON FENCES, UTILITY LINES, PIPELINES, STEEL
FABRICATIONS, ANTENNAE OR ON ROOF TOPS OR OTHER HIGH PLACES.

STOP TRACTOR WORK AND HEAVY CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMENT, ESPECIALLY WHEN
PULLING METAL EQUIPMENT, AND DISMOUNT. DO NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER THE
EQUIPMENT.

AT CONSTRUCTION SITES, MOVE TO A LOCATION BENEATH A SOLID ROOF.
AVOID OPENINGS SUCH AS WINDOWS OR DOORS.

DON'T BE UNDER A CARPORT OR IN A SCREENED PORCH OR IN AN OPEN
GARAGE.

WHEN INDOORS, STAY AWAY FROM OPEN DOORS AND WINDOWS, STOVES, METAL
PIPES, SINKS AND PLUGGED IN ELECTRICAL DEVICES. STAY OUT OF THE
SHOWER OR BATHTUB AND OFF THE TOILET. DO NOT USE A CORDED TELEPHONE
OR COMPUTER. UNPLUG MAJOR. APPLIANCES SUCH AS TELEVISIONS AND AIR
CONDITIONERS. LIGHTNING CAN ENTER THE HOUSE THROUGH ELECTRICAL,
TELEPHONE AND PLUMBING CONNECTIONS.

PERSONS STRUCK BY LIGHTNING RECEIVE A SEVERE ELECTRICAL SHOCK AND
MAY BE BURNED, HOWEVER THEY CARRY NO ELECTRICAL CHARGE AND CAN BE
ATTENDED TO SAFELY. A PERSON APPARENTLY KILLED BY LIGHTNING CAN
OFTEN BE REVIVED BY PROMPT CPR. OTHER PERSONS WHO APPEAR ONLY
STUNNED MAY ALSO NEED MEDICAL ATTENTION. DO NOT LET VICTIMS WALK
AROUND. GIVE THEM FIRST AID FOR SHOCK.

MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS BY TUNING IN TO LOCAL MEDIA AND BY GOING
TO THE MIAMI NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON LIGHTNING SAFETY: GO TO THE FOLLOWING WEB
SITE: WWW.LIGHTNINGSAFETY.NOAA.GOV

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Eastern Atlantic System

From this morning's Tropical Weather Outlook:

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EXTREME EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAL IN
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 15 MPH.

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Watching the Tropics

In the far eastern Atlantic we are now watching a system of low pressure with showers and thunderstorms associated with it. Models are now being run on this system and the SHIPS intensity model indicate that this entity could become a tropical storm tomorrow. This may a bit aggressive given since early July is not an ideal time for storm to develop in this area. I will continue to monitor and update tomorrow. Below is the latest model map from wunderground.com

Stormy Start to July

Just after midnight spotters reported a waterspout off A1A and Las Olas Blvd in Ft. Lauderdale. This could be seen in the flashes of lightning a couple miles off the coast. As the line of thunderstorms approach the coast additional waterspouts are possible.

As I am writting this we have moderate rain with thunder. On my way home from work tonight the lightning off shore was brilliant with nearly constant flashing.

Further updates tonight as needed.
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Lots of Lightning

The storms did roll through our area late this afternoon. We had over an inch of rain here at the home station. Lightning activity was high today with these storms with a couple of flickers of power as well. During the peak of the activity around 6PM tonight it sounded as if there was some hail but I did not observe any. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for our area due to this storm.

Speaking of observing my daughter and I saw a funnel cloud this morning off the coast of Deerfield Beach, FL. This was the first for my daughter. We saw it from the street in front of our house and observed it moving north along the coast. None of the pictures or video I took has any quality so they will not be posted.

So for Sunday I believe we will still see some thunderstorms in the afternoon but they should not be as widespread or as severe as today's activity. I will update that statement in the morning.

Special Weather Statement

From NWS Miami:

441 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

....STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS PARKLAND AND COCONUT CREEK...

AT 438 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
A THUNDERSTORM WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NEAR PARKLAND AND THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

COCONUT CREEK...
POMPANO BEACH...
PARKLAND...
NORTH POMPANO BEACH...
SANDALFOOT COVE...
MARGATE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...DIME-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

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Miami's Sounding Parameters

From this morning, looks interesting:

Message Date: Jun 21 2008 16:15:5912Z MFL SOUNDING PARAMETERS WITH A HIGH TEMP OF 90 DEGREES: EQ. LEVEL:48638; CAPE 4838; PWAT'S 1.89; 500 MB TEMP -9.1; LOWEST AFTN LI: -10 DEGREES AND WBZ HGT: 13770; HIGH CHANCE FOR WET MICROBURSTS.

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Short Term Forecast for Broward

1210 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2008

..NOW...
THROUGH 130 PM...SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND
SECTIONS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AS HEATING INCREASES AND
THE SEABREEZE MOVES FURTHER INLAND.

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Numerous Thunderstorms Today

Could be an active weather day after all today. Latest HWO was just issued advising that numerous thunderstorms are likely today with some string to severe. We are looking at a high of 90F today. Nothing serious is on radar yet but we will keep an eye on it.

For local storm spotters the NWS is asking that activation may be needed today and to please monitor the situation and at least phone in any reports.

Updates to follow as needed.

Sky Picture

I just liked the colors of this one. This was taken shortly after the showers moved off shore tonight.

Some More Rain on Thursday

I was anticipating a bit more rain around today, but considering that we are still quite a bit behind in our rainfall totals we will take whatever we can get. MIA had 1.25 inches of rain today and PMP had a trace. Lake Okeechobee level at midnight was 9.27 feet, much below normal.

There was a Tornado Warning this evening for central Broward county which was allowed to expire at 7:30PM. There was no damage reported with the tornado or any other thunderstorms today.

Wednesday we have a 70% chance of rain according to the NWS, with locally heavy rains possible in some areas. Storms are expected to last through Thursday then a more normal pattern Friday through Sunday.

I will post an update in the morning to adjust the forecast.

This Afternoon's Weather Threats

For south Florida from the NWS Miami:

....NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...
...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GULF COAST BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
GULF COAST TODAY, RESULTING IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MAINLAND AND ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. FREQUENT TO
EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.

WIND: A FEW ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH ASSOCIATED WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.

HAIL: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SMALL HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.

FLOODING: LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, WITH PONDING OF WATER IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS
AND NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING POSSIBLE.

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Possible Heavy Rains on Tuesday and Wednesday

Not much time for an update but we are looking at the possibilitiy of heavy rains later today and tomorrow. A tropical wave will pass to our south and introduce the acttivity to the area in conjunction with our day time heating.

I will post more after I look at the morning data.
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Funnel Cloud/Waterspout East of Boca Raton

These images were taken Thursday, June 12, 2008 around 9AM from the Glades Road and I-95 area in Boca Raton, Florida. Sorry these pictures are not great but it was the best I could do while driving safely.

It has been a very busy week for funnel sighting along the southeast Florida coast. Besides this one I also saw one on Wednesday night east off shore Lighthouse Point, Florida.

More Thunderstorms Thursday

After a storm Tuesday and more showers today we will have some drier air working into the area for the weekend. Yesterday we had quite a few severe thunderstorm warnings and special marine warnings. Several waterspouts were reported yesterday along with one that I spotted and reported to the NWS just before 7PM about 9 miles east of Lighthouse Point, Florida. Ranfall amounts were generally light along the coast and increased towards the middle of the counties.

Today was not nearly as severe but we did have one Severe Thunderstorm Warning for central Broward and a couple reports of hail in Palm Beach county.

For Thursday we should see some showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, a little less on Friday then some drier air will take over for the weekend where we will have about a 20% chance of precipitation.

Lastly tonight, we are watching an area of disturbed weather east of Venezuela that should move inland tonight. Models are being run on this system and I will continue to monitor.

Unsettled Monday

Monday we should see quite a few showers and some thunderstorms around thanks to an upper level low spinning this way. You can see it in the above image just to the east of south Florida. This low along with the heating of the day will lead to a chance of some of the thunderstorms tomorrow being strong.

Will update in the morning with the latest.

Rip Currents Today

A reminder from the NWS:

....HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS. THE RISK COULD BE HIGHER LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW
TIDE IS EXPECTED.

A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN
PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER FROM NEAR OR INSIDE THE SAND BAR INTO
DEEPER WATER. DUE TO THE LIFE THREATENING DANGERS THAT THESE
STRONG CURRENTS OF WATER POSE...SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED AT THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

HOWEVER...IF YOU DO GO INTO THE WATERS...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES
AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD
PULL OF A RIP CURRENT DO NOT ATTEMPT TO SWIM DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE
AGAINST THE CURRENT. INSTEAD...SWIM SIDEWAYS PARALLEL TO THE COAST
UNTIL THE PULL WEAKENS. THEN SWIM TOWARDS SHORE AT AN ANGLE AWAY
FROM THE CURRENT.

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Funnel Cloud Video

Just posted on youtube.com:

Funnel Cloud East of Deerfield Beach

The above images were taken Sunday June 1, 2008 at 8:05am EDT in Deerfield Beach, Florida. I was approaching SE 10 Street heading north when my wife and I spotted the funnel cloud off to the east. I am estimating that the funnel cloud was in the area of the Deerfield Beach Pier.

I will be posting a video as well that we took.

The Hazardous Weather Outlook this morning did state that there was a high risk of waterspouts so it was not too surprising that the funnel cloud formed, I was just lucky to be in the right place at the right moment to capture it :)

5PM Advisory on Arthur

500 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

....ARTHUR MOVING SLOWLY OVER YUCATAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE
BORDER WITH BELIZE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...NORTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 195 MILES...315
KM...SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR COULD EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT...BUT IT COULD THEN REGAIN TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IF IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

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Tropical Storm Arthur Forms

As of 1PM: POSITION...18.1 N...88.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

Next update at 2PM.
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Update on Disturbed Weather

The latest from the NHC:

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TO FORM IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ON SUNDAY.

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Update from the NHC

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

....CORRECT SPELLING OF GUATEMALA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. THE LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF
THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

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Rainy Season has Begun and Tropical News

The 2008 rainy season has officially begun. According the the NWS Miami May 22 was the beginning, two days later than the median start date of May 20. This is generally calculated by using the daily minimum average temperature of the dew point. After three days of a minimum temperature at or above 70F and average dew point at or above 70F the rainy season has begun. We were almost there last week until the previous cold front came through the area drying us out and lowering our low temperatures a bit.

Earlier tonight the NHC issued a special statement about the remnants of Tropical Depression Alma now in the Gulf of Honduras. Current thinking is that this system will not immediately regenerate but will need to be watched since the models indicate that it may become a closed circulation system again. Most of the models do track the system heading back towards the west. Of course check back here for updates.

One last reminder, the 2008 Hurricane Season begins on Sunday.

More updates tomorrow.

Pacific - First Depression of 2008

Just in from the NHC:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008
800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR COSTA RICA...EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...165 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA AND ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTH OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH.  A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...10.2 N...86.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

Active Weather Day

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch was allowed to expire at 9PM. There were reports of damage from the tri-county area due to today's activity. Flooding in Palm Beach county at one point in Delray Beach at the intersection of Linton Blvd. and Congress Avenue. There was also a tornado warning for Plam Beach county early this evening. Gold ball size hail at I-95 and Delray Beach Blvd.

Hail was also reported in Broward and Miami Dade. Here is a list of today's reports:

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0636 PM TSTM WND GST OPA-LOCKA 25.90N 80.26W
05/24/2008 M45.00 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL ASOS

ASOS AT OPA-LOCKA AIRPORT REPORTED 45 MPH WIND GUST

0641 PM FLOOD DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELRAY BEACH PD REPORTED ROADWAY FLOODING AT THE
INTERSECTION OF LINTON BLVD AND CONGRESS AVE

0641 PM FLOOD DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELRAY BEACH PD REPORTED WATER INTRUDING ON HOMES AT
NASSAU STREET

0730 PM TSTM WND GST DOLPHINS STADIUM 25.95N 80.24W
05/24/2008 M50.00 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

MESONET AT DOLPHIN STADIUM REPORTED 50 MILE AN HOUR WIND
GUST.

0748 PM TSTM WND GST DORAL 25.84N 80.36W
05/24/2008 M51.00 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

MESONET AT RONALD REGAN HIGH SCHOOL REPORTED A 51 MPH
WIND GUST

0810 PM FLOOD DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELRAY BEACH PD REPORTED INTERSECTION OF LINTON BLVD AND
CONGRESS AVE IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODED ROADWAY

0810 PM FLOOD DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELRAY BEACH PD REPORTED WATER CONTINUE TO INTRUDE ON
HOMES AT NASSAU STREET.
0230 PM HAIL 5 SSW KENDALL 25.62N 80.35W
05/24/2008 E0.25 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE ALONG SOUTH DIXIE
HIGHWAY IN PERRINE.

0232 PM HAIL PERRINE 25.62N 80.34W
05/24/2008 E0.25 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL IN PERRINE NEAR S.
DIXIE HIGHWAY

0240 PM HAIL MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIR 25.80N 80.29W
05/24/2008 E0.25 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL STATE ROAD 836 AND
87TH AVE

0328 PM TSTM WND GST MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIR 25.80N 80.29W
05/24/2008 M 49 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL ASOS

MIAMI ASOS REPORTED 49 MPH WIND GUST AT 328PM

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG HOMESTEAD 25.48N 80.47W
05/24/2008 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOMESTEAD PD REPORTED POWER OUTAGE THROUHOUT FLORIDA CITY
AND ALONG 288ST BETWEEN 137 AND 147 AVE

0408 PM HAIL COOPER CITY 26.06N 80.27W
05/24/2008 E0.25 INCH BROWARD FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL COOPER CITY NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF FLAMINGO AND GRIFFIN ROAD

0424 PM TSTM WND GST PALM BEACH 26.70N 80.04W
05/24/2008 M 52 MPH PALM BEACH FL ASOS

PBI ASOS REPORTED 52 MPH WIND GUST AT 424PM

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG HOMESTEAD 25.48N 80.47W
05/24/2008 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOMESTEAD PD REPORTED WIND DAMAGE AT 1 SPEEDWAY BLVD

0459 PM HAIL COOPER CITY 26.06N 80.27W
05/24/2008 E0.50 INCH BROWARD FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL COOPER CITY NEAR
58TH STREET

0503 PM HAIL COOPER CITY 26.06N 80.27W
05/24/2008 E0.88 INCH BROWARD FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED HAIL OF NICKEL SIZE.

0542 PM HAIL DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 E1.75 INCH PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AT 542 PM AT 6TH
STREET AND ATLANTIC AVE

0543 PM HAIL DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 E1.75 INCH PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL DELRAY BEACH AT
INTERSTATE 95 AND ATLANTIC AVE

Tomorrow we still expect a cold front to move through to lower of humidity and temperatures just a little bit.

Update

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...

VALID 242220Z - 242315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346
CONTINUES.

ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY DECREASED ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL
AND SRN FL...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS STILL
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF
CONVECTION. STORMS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE WATCH
AREA AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS FINALLY CONVERGED WITH THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. IN GENERAL THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSE AS EARLIER AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DECREASE.
FARTHER S BETWEEN VRB AND MIA ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER BEFORE THE WLY STEERING FLOW
GRADUALLY BRINGS THE STORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
346 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH FLORIDA

BROWARD, COLLIER, GLADES, HENDRY, MAINLAND MONROE, MIAMI-DADE AND
PALM BEACH.

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLEWISTON...FLAMINGO...
FORT LAUDERDALE...LA BELLE...MIAMI...MOORE HAVEN...
NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH.

HAIL TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS
IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS
CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

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Increased Risk of Severe Weather

From the SPC:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 241418Z - 241515Z

THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK WITH MORE DETAILS TO FOLLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 1630Z.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ON OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS FL TODAY OF NEAR -8 TO
-10 C WILL COOL FURTHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DIGS SWD. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S WILL CREATE A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK...SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...WITH
PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. A WW
MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

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More Rain on Saturday

You can not say we do not need it, more rain on Saturday. A few strong to severe storms in the area this afternoon with a couple of reports of hail in Coral Springs. I think we may see the same tomorrow with the NWS forecasting a 60% chance of rain and thunderstorms tomorrow.

Sunday we should see a "cold front" sweep through the area that will bring a few showers with it. For Monday we will have slightly cooler temps and a bit less humidity.

Here is a list of the severe weather reports from today:

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0235 PM TSTM WND GST TAMARAC 26.21N 80.27W
05/23/2008 M59 MPH BROWARD FL BROADCAST MEDIA

WIND GUST OF 59 MPH MEASURED FROM A MESONET STATION AT
NOB HILL AND COMMERCIAL.
0210 PM HAIL CORAL SPRINGS 26.27N 80.27W
05/23/2008 E0.88 INCH BROWARD FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKLE HAIL FALLLING AT INTERSECTION OF WILES AND ROCK
ISLAND ROAD.

0225 PM HAIL CORAL SPRINGS 26.27N 80.27W
05/23/2008 E0.88 INCH BROWARD FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKLE HAIL FELL AT THE INTERSECTION OF WEST ATLANTIC
BLVD AND RIVER SIDE DRIVE. ALSO WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
50 MPH.

0225 PM TSTM WND DMG CORAL SPRINGS 26.27N 80.27W
05/23/2008 BROWARD FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

CANOPY BLOWN OVER AT A PARK IN CORAL SPRINGS AREA.

Have a great night, more tomorrow.

NOAA Issues 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast

NOAA released their forecast for this hurricane season and they are calling for a normal to slightly above normal season. This translates to 12 to 16 named storms, six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes.

You can find the full report here.

Here you can find the Sun-Sentinel's report, and the Miami Herald's article.

Locally we finally had rain today. When I checked the rain gauge tonight looks like we had about .32 inches of rain which is the most we have had in a single day so far this month. At the same time this broke our string of 93F plus days. Although yesterday we did top out at 96F at PMP.

More tornadoes hit the middle portion of our country today killing one in Colorado. There was a mile-wide tornado that you can read about here. At this time there is still a high risk of tornadoes in western Kansas and a moderate risk surrounding this area. So far today 39 tornadoes have been reported.

The map below will be updated by the SPC through tonight for storm event counts and locations.

Another Hot Day

Pompano hit 94F today while FLL hit 97F. There were a few strong storms over northern Palm Beach county and at this time all the activity has faded. Along with the heat we also had gusty conditions with observations this afternoon. Pompano had winds between 15 and 20 MPH with a few gusts about 35 MPH.

Just checked the METARs from PMP today and it actually looks like the high will officially be 95F, we will see in the morning.

Looks like one more very warm day and then we should moderate a little and with a slight chance of rain between now and Saturday.

Have a great night and drink plenty of liquids.

Still Very Warm

Not quite baking yet here in Pompano. At 3PM it was 88F, down 2 degrees from last hour. With the winds currently from the SSE instead of the expected SW we "moderated" a little bit. Looking at the other observations in the area such as FLL at 93F with winds from the WNW and FXE at 91F with winds from the WSW I see no reason for us to cool down any further.

At least the smoke smell in the air from the Everglades fires has diminished. Though we will likely have the smell around again in the morning.

Also looking at the calender, tomorrow will mark two weeks before the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I will be posting more about the season as we countdown the days.

Finally keep an eye on my Twitter for the latest in the area weather and other odds and ends from time-to-time.

Lake Okeechobee Drops Again

The latest from the lake, not surprising since there really has been no rain in the area.

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

12 midnight avg lake lvl 9.88 -0.05

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Sunday was Hot

Just looking at the high/low reports from yesterday and even by Florida standards it was hot! Here is the reports from the airports:

AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS HIGH LOW PCPN   FORT LAUDERDALE INTL :FLL 96 79 0.01  FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC :FXE 96 77 0.00  MIAMI INTERNATIONAL :MIA 96 79 0.00  NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT :APF 86 79 T  OPA LOCKA AIRPORT :OPF 93 77 0.07  PEMBROKE PINES :HWO 95 77 T  POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT :PMP 95 78 0.00  WEST KENDALL/TAMIAMI AP :TMB 95 75 0.00  WEST PALM BEACH :PBI 94 76 0.24   

(Hopefully that comes out readable.)


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Record High Saturday at FLL

   ..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE   A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE YESTERDAY.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1967.     
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Home Station Down

The home station has not reported data for a couple hours so it is down for the time being. I will get it back in service as soon as I can.

Thanks for all the emails informing me of this :)
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Warm Weekend Ahead

It will feel like summer this weekend with highs around 90. The humidity will return starting tomorrow as the winds begin to shift. Along with the wind shift we will see an ever so slight increase in the chance of rain but I am not expecting anything wide spread through Monday.

A follow up from last night's post. This afternoon CNN began to report that there could more than 100000 deaths in Myanmar due to last weekend's cyclone. You can read more about the storm and the recovery efforts here at CNN.com.

For those who would like to help out financially you can go to Google's home page to donate to UNICEF or follow my link.

Possibly 50000 Killed in Burma

When Cyclone Nargis hit Burma on Saturday it caused extensive damage to the area and some reports have the death toll climbing to a possible 50000. Some areas had as much as two days notice but the magnitude of the storm may not have been understood by those who live there.

Winds exceeded 120mph leaving structures stripped to frames or less. Cyclone Nargis has had the largest death toll of a natural event since the tsunami of 2004 on Boxing Day killed an estimated 31000 in Sri Lanka.

Here is a great article from the BBC covering the cyclone:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7384041.stm

Special Weather Statment

900 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC AND MEDIA REGARDING HAZY
CONDITIONS AND SMOKE ACROSS A FEW PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THIS MORNING. SEVERAL FACTORS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THESE
CONDITIONS. ONE IS A VERY STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE THAT IS NOT
ALLOWING ANY MIXING TO OCCUR. ANOTHER IS THAT SEVERAL LARGE FIRES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WERE OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...IN CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY AND IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA.
THERE WAS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN METRO AREAS THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY STABLE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE...LINGERING FOG AND SMOKE AND A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION HAS CREATED HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THE DAY TIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO DISSIPATE THE FOG...PROMOTE GREATER VERTICAL MIXING AND HELP
DILUTE THE HAZY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS ALSO WILL HELP TO DILUTE
THE HAZE AS FRESHER AIR WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

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Test Post

Sorry about the test post, just checking to see if it is working.
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A Few Strong Thunderstorms this Afternoon

Looks like the east coast this afternoon may see some strong thunderstorms develop. The main threats are high winds and small hail.

Before any activity begins to develop we will have a very nice morning with mostly clear skies. This morning we do have dewpoints in the low 70s so there is a good amount of moisture in the lower atmosphere which could aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms later.

More as we go into the afternoon.

Warm-Up Begins

What a beautiful treat we have had for the past few days. Since the front came through on Sunday the humidity has dropped along with the temperature. This is not normal for April but not unheard of.

This morning's low was 51F at PMP after a high on Tuesday of 68F. The rest of the southeast coast was also in the 50s.

Tonight will be 10+ degrees warmer and we will surly feel the warmth begin tomorrow and gradually get warmer for the weekend. Shower chances will return Friday but nothing widespread through Saturday.

You will also notice a couple of things on the blog. The weather server is down again, it is recording data from the home station but will not communicate with the internet. I will hopefully have sometime this weekend to work on it. This is also the server that emails me all the weather data from the NWS. Thankfully there should not see any extreme weather for the next few days.

Also on the blog I have added my Twitter feed. From there you can also find links to "follow me."

Have a nice night.

Hot Sunday, Cool Monday through Wednesday

An extreme in temperatures is in store for us during the next few days. Sunday we should have a high in the afternoon near 90F. Then a front will approach the area and cloud up with a few showers around by late afternoon.

Early tomorrow evening the front should push through and bring our winds from the north or northwest. This will usher win cooler and dryer air. Lows Monday morning will be around 57F, highs in the lower 70s.

Then Tuesday will be the coolest of the week/month and probably for a while. Lows Tuesday morning I am forecasting at 51F and a high of 71F. This is unseasonably cool for April. We could be near record lows for Tuesday, let's see how close we are.

Wednesday will still be below normal temperature wise but the warming trend will begin.

Enjoy the refreshing weather.

Active Weather This Morning and Tonight

Overnight we had a strong line of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A little after 4am Pompano Airport recorded a wind gust of 48mph and here at weather central we recorded a wind gust of 26mph. This was followed by the power going out and the computer that records and uploads the information to wunderground to fail :( Do not know when I will or if I can get that machine back up but I will keep you posted.

Though we did not see the rain this afternoon as forecasted we did see it tonight. We did have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for eastern Broward but that was canceled early. Currently there is some great lightning and rumbles of thunder.

There is another line of thunderstorms behind the one that just swept through which will bring more rain but probably will not be severe. Keep those weather radios on tonight!

Hot Sunday Coming Up

After a rainy afternoon in northeast Broward the skies have cleared and we are looking at a very nice but warm/hot weekend. We had over an inch of rain here and this heavy rain prompted an Urban Flood Advisory.

Highs this weekend will be upper 80s tomorrow and lower 90s on Sunday which will be the warmest weather so far this year and possible record highs for the day.

Also there appears to have been a tornado to touch down in Atlanta tonight. You can find live reports at www.cnn.com especially since CNN did have some windows blow out due to the storm.

Heaviest Rain Offshore

The bulk of the activity is now offshore. This morning we had .26 inches of rain, mostly between 6 and 7am. No severe weather was noted in the area though a Special Marine Warning was issued for the near shore waters and that expired at 7:30am.

For the remainder of the day we will see skies clear slowly with a very slight chance of more rain. Breezy with highs around 78F.

Slight Chance of Severe Weather After Midnight

According to the SPC there is a slight chance of severe weather over Broward and Palm Beach counties through 7am. Currently Palm Beach county is in a Tornado Watch. The line of thunderstorms is weakening slightly and should not be as severe as it has been through the rest of the state by the time it gets here. I am expecting some isolated severe weather though.

So far today there have been 15 reported tornadoes over northern Florida and southeastern Georgia. Two were killed by the tornadoes in Columbia county and one injured in Leon county.

Keep the weather radio on overnight and look for a recap in the morning.

Also there weather Twitter will be on in case of interesting weather.

Update

Just a quick update to the blog. Added a chat option and voice call option. Feel free to try them out and let me know what you think.

Also for those of you who emailed me about the wind data, it is now updating!!

More later,
howpomp

Funnel Cloud this Morning

On my way out to check on the campus this morning I spotted and called in (under the Skywarn program) a funnel cloud off the coast of Boca Raton around 9:25am. It did not touch the surface and lasted about 3 minutes. I was not the first to call it in but it did help the NWS issue the following Marine Weather Statement:

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
931 AM EST THU FEB 21 2008

AMZ650-211500-
931 AM EST THU FEB 21 2008
 
..MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

AT 928 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SHOWER...PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS ABOUT 2 NM EAST OF BOCA
RATON....MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS.

THE PUBLIC REPORTED SEEING A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT.

We do have a nice weekend in store with a few showers and a chance of a
thunderstorm.  Highs will continue to be above normal in the low 80s.

As we go into next week there is a good chance that a strong cold front
will come through the area.  The front could bring some strong weather and a
very noticeable cool down.  Check back through the weekend as this possible weather
event begins to unfold.

Warmer tha Usual

Beautiful weekend going on in south Florida with higher than normal temperatures and rain free. As we go into Sunday and Monday we will see an increase in shower activity, especially Monday as a cold front approaches the area followed by a cool down. Tuesday we will see highs in the mid 70s and lows in the lower 60s which is about 10 degrees warmer than we have had.

Also an note about the observations you see here on the blog and on www.wunderground.com the wind instruments have been moved and secured a bit better in hopes of having better wind information. The only draw back to the relocation was that the instruments were lowered about a foot. I will monitor over th next week to see if the data quality improves or not.

Have a great night.

Two Confirmed Tornadoes in Broward

There were two tornadoes that touched down in Ft. Lauderdale last night which spawned a Tornado Warning for our area. No injuries and both were EF-0 in intensity.

It was very different to have such a warm wind blowing with the rain and lightning around. Overall we had 1.98 inches of rain yesterday and over an inch today with the frontal passage.

The weather will be tranquil tomorrow and we should some showers as we go into the weekend. Another front will sweep through on Monday.

Severe Weather Potential

SPC has now stated that the potential for severe weather over southeast Florida will increase today and into tonight. In their words:

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE.
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PENINSULA FOR LATE TONIGHT...WHEN/WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
SHOW GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

Possible Rough Weather Ahead

Looks as if we will have some strong to severe weather coming in tomorrow and Wednesday. This is associated with a warm front moving north over the area tomorrow while an impulse from the Gulf of Mexico moves towards the east. Upper level winds, at this time, look to be conducive for thunderstorms, possible super cells and isolated tornadoes.

Then on Wednesday as a cold front sweeps through models are indicating that a squall line may develop and with the timing with the heating of the day we may again see severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting that southeast Florida, specifically south of Palm Beach could see the strongest activity with the interaction of the squall line with the sea breeze front.

Here is part of the Hazardous Weather Outlook from this evening:

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY 

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK: A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH  
FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE  
AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES, ALONG WITH GUSTY  
WINDS. 

ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT  
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS  
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE  
DAMAGING WINDS. 

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, BUT RESIDENTS AND  
VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES ON  
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS SEVERE WEATHER COULD AFFECT THE  
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 

Please keep updated on the conditions tomorrow and Wednesday.