Interesting weather information pertaining mostly to south Florida.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

Noel Moving Erratically

As of 11PM Noel is still over Cuba and has slowed down to almost a crawl. Over the past couple of hours Noel has been moving erratically but an overall average motion is towards the NW near 5 mph. At this time it seems the westward motion has ended.

With this current motion and the jet stream preparing to dip into the Gulf of Mexico this should end Noel's westward march and allow the storm to be picked up and taken out to see. For this reason I am forecasting Noel not to come ashore in Florida. The main impacts from Noel should be coastal flooding, windy conditions and very quick moving scattered showers on Halloween. At this moment I do not think that Halloween will be a washout :) But it will be windy.

Since the storm is still to our south we must continue to watch Noel and make sure the forecast verifies, so please check back here and at twitter.com/howpomp

Also for those of you wondering about school on Wednesday, at this time all school systems will be open.

Have a nice night.

Monday, October 29, 2007

No Watches Yet

At 11PM Noel was located at 21.2/75.0 moving NW near 13 mph. Max winds are 50mph with a minimum pressure of 1000mb.

Tropical storm watch could be issued tomorrow morning depending how Noel behaves overnight.

Currently there is about a 30% chance of tropical storm force winds to affect southeast Florida.

There have been no dramatic changes in any of the available models so as I go to bed tonight my previous forecast stands. In the morning there may be some adjusting of this though.

Have a good night.

Latest Models

Here is the latest model plat from the SFWMD. As you can see the is good agreement about Noel approaching Florida, how close? Based on the available data we will see Noel come within 30 miles of the coast before turning away. This is certainly close enough to bring tropical storm force winds over the tri-county area. As I get more data I will post it here.

Twitter Activated

During the threat of Noel I will be posting quick messages on Twitter. You can find the posts at

http://twitter.com/howpomp

From the page you can sign up to receive updates via email or text message.

Possible Tropical Storm Watches for south Florida

This is the first of a couple of updates for tonight and tropical storm Noel. In the 8PM advisory the NHC mentioned that tropical storm watches may be required for southeast Florida. The trend over the past six hours is that Noel may become a bigger threat than previously stated. During the next hour new model data will become available and I will expand from there.

Please stay tuned.

Sunday, October 28, 2007

Noel and this Week

TD16 was upgraded to Tropical storm Noel this afternoon in a special advisory at 2PM. Currently winds are up to 60mph as the system moves NNW at 4mph. Minimum pressure is estimated at 996mb.

The future of the storm is very uncertain. There are two main possibilities. The first follows the official forecast and brings the storm through the Bahamas out into the open Atlantic. The second possibility is that Noel meanders around Cuba for the next five days.

There will be a recon flight reaching Noel around 2am and hopefully the overnight model runs may bring some clarity to the eventual track of Noel.

Guess we will see you tomorrow.

Updated Local Forecast

Tropical storm conditions are now forecasted for the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Much more tomorrow as this system evolves.

Saturday, October 27, 2007

Tropical Depression #16

TD16 will be announce at 11PM tonight. This is the system south of the Dominican Republic and the one that brought the rain to Puerto Rico Thursday and Friday. It is a bit early to relay on the longer term output of the models but there is a trend starting to bring this storm towards the northwest then north, then possible northeast. This system could affect the Bahamas and/or south Florida the middle to late this coming week. I would not be surprised if we are in the cone by tonight or tomorrow.

Though we are late in the season, we are still in the season so please remain prepared and check for further updates.

Friday, October 26, 2007

This Morning's Rain

This morning for the 7am report to CoCoRaHS we reported 3.72 inches of rain. Most of that came between 2:30am and 6am. It did start to rain around 10pm last night and we had at least two thunderstorms pass through, the first of which was about 2:30am. Road were slightly flooded at 6:45 am but rain drained pretty well.

It is late now but I will be back in the morning for an update on the tropics.

Friday, October 19, 2007

Thursday Severe Weather

Just a quick recap from yesterday's severe weather, 29 tornadoes, 93 hail reports and 167 wind reports. One of the tornadoes was in Pensacola and one of the wind reports were from Brevard county. Near Rockledge an USAF wind tower recorded a 51kt (59mph) wind gust. Here is a map from the SPC showing where the reports came from.

Tuesday, October 16, 2007

Flood Watch until 6am for Palm Beach County

As mentioned before, Flood watch until 6am and an Urban Flood Advisory for Palm Beach county. Some areas have seen more than two inches of rain tonight with more to come.

More details in the morning.

Flood Watch for Palm Beach County

Flood Watch will be issued shortly for continuing showers over eastern portions of Palm Beach county. A low pressure system has formed off the coast of northern Broward county and is causing the shower activity going on now.

Note that the rainfall total from the weather station might be off a bit, there was no data coming in for the first hour of rain we had. Since then data has resumed and currently we are reading .75 inches for the night. I will report in the morning what is in the manual gauge.

Stay dry ;-)

Friday, October 12, 2007

Rainy Weekend?

TD 15 weakened to an open wave this afternoon and is nearly dissipated. Not much left to talk about on this one.

I think we might see more rain than we expected this weekend. There is a large area of showers to our south over Cuba and extending to Mexico. The cold front I mentioned yesterday is not really visible on satellite and there is some dryer air over central and northern Florida. I do expect a fairly strong easterly breeze over the weekend and think this is what we will need to generate some rain over the weekend. Not a wash out, but most of us will see some rain from time to time.

Thursday, October 11, 2007

TD 15

TD 15 formed late this afternoon in the open Atlantic. The official forecast does not call for this system to last very long not strengthen, and I would have to agree with this.

For those of us in Florida it looks like we will have a "cold front " pass over us tomorrow. It really will not have a big effect on us and will probably stall to our south. Breezy conditions will exist due to high pressure building in, so not a bad weekend weather wise coming up.

Monday, October 01, 2007

Rain and a bit More Rain

After being in a Flood Watch for most of the day we have seen the rain abate a bit tonight. Looks like tonight will not be as rainy as we have seen over the past two nights.

The mass of clouds to our east has been labeled system 90L. This area of disturbed weather will likely become our next depression once it crosses the state and emerges in the Gulf of Mexico.

Flood Watch has just been extended until 10am on Tuesday for the tri-county area.

Home weather station went down just after 12 noon due to a power outage so I do not have an accurate rainfall total for today. Try again tomorrow.

Stay dry!