Not Yet a Depression

An update from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO INDICATE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE DATA
SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.

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Next System Could be Forming

Just in from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

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Ike Coming Ashore and Watching to the Southeast

The area of disturbed weather to our southeast is being watched for development which is not imminent at this time but we will continue to watch it. Below are the latest model runs which bring it very close to Florida in many cases. Intensity models are split between a tropical storm force system forming or a system that remains relatively weak. Below are the tracks.

I am currently watching live coverage of Ike coming ashore Texas at this time with winds of 110mph. If you have DirecTV you can tune to channel 361 and see the live, local coverage from KHOU-TV. They recently reported 300,000 customers are already without power. Make that 315,000 now.

Also of interest is that their hurricane specialist is Dr. Neil Frank, former Director of the National Hurricane Center.

Check back tomorrow for an update on the system to our southeast. Updates will also be on Twitter.

Live Coverage of Ike

You can listen to KHOU on channel 247 on XM Radio and also live audio and video and DirecTV channel 361.
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Disturbed Area of Weather East of Florida

According the the NHC this area has a 20% (low) chance of developing into a depression as it moves towards the west. Earlier this evening the convection had died down but has come back a bit in the past couple of hours.

Earlier today there were some models run on this system and their output had the system going anywhere towards the north to the west, including south Florida. I will have further updates tomorrow. Please note that there were no model runs on this system tonight but may resume tomorrow if the convection continues. Check back tomorrow for an update.

Houston's Statement for Ike's Landfall

This is from the NWS in Houston, Texas from this evening's Hurricane Local Statement.


LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

A New Area to Watch

A new area of weather has developed in the Atlantic that the models have picked up on. Some of the models bring this system as a tropical storm into our area.

I will have an update later tonight with the current details and model outputs.
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11PM Adisory on Ike

Just read the 11PM package for Ike and the five day forecast point is 26.0/80.0 or just offshore Broward county with 130mph winds with gusts up to 155mph. This is a five day forecast with a large degree of error in both location and intensity

Ike and South Florida

With the 5PM NHC forecast point less than 100 miles off the coast of southeast Florida all attention is turning to Ike. Just looked at the 8PM early cycle models and as they did six hours ago many of them point right into the area. Intensity models of these models range from borderline cat 1/2 up to cat 4 (HWFI and AVN).

The official local forecast has "hurricane conditions possible" for Monday night and Tuesday day. Please take time on Friday not only to keep track of Ike but to go over your emergency supplies and plans and make sure you are ready for Ike. This appears to be our biggest tropical threat since Wilma.

More frequent updates here and through Twitter, stay tuned.

Watching Ike

From this morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook:

HURRICANE IKE LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY MONDAY. IKE IS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS ON
HURRICANE IKE AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD THE HURRICANE THREATENS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

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Hanna Getting Stronger

Just received a report from the recon plane and Hanna now has a minimum pressure of 985mb and winds estimated at the surface near 75mph. She could be upgraded to a hurricane for the 2PM advisory.
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