Gabrielle Heading Back Into the Atlantic

As of 11pm all watches and warnings are discontinued for the US. No major damage reported at this time, so on to the rest of the tropics.

There are now three areas to watch as we head into the new week. The most interesting one is well east of Puerto Rico. Some of the models develop and bring this system into the Bahamas later this week. I will be watching this closely so check back tomorrow for an update (or two).

The next area is in the Gulf of Mexico and if this system were to develop it would probably head into Texas. The other area is in the central Atlantic and poses no immediate threat to land.

Subtropical Storm Gabrielle

Slight correction to the previous post. The system is not TD7 but Subtropical Storm Gabrielle with winds of 45mph and a pressure of 1011mb. Tropical storm watches are now issued for portions of the coasts of North and South Carolina.

TD7 Forms

After almost five days of expected development, the area of disturbed weather that has been meandering in the western Atlantic has now been upgraded to tropical depression #7. This will be announced at 11PM for its first advisory.

Tropical storm watches will be issued for areas of the mid-Atlantic coast.

Here is the latest IR image.

Felix Images and Models

As category five hurricane Felix continues to move east near 18mph the storm continues its symmetrical presentation on satellite as seen below, a classic hurricane.



At this point Felix will have fluctuations in intensity, as all major hurricanes do, caused by eye wall replacement cycles. These cycles are not really predictable but are signaled usually by concentric eye walls, with the inner one "collapsing" and the outer wall taking over. As the new eye starts to contract that is when you will see a decrease in barometric pressure followed by an increase in wind speed. Below is the latest graph on what the intensity models are predicting. (Graphic from University of Colorado)


As far as the future path, models are very consistent for the next three days but after that there is a pretty good spread. Tomorrow we will look at the later forecast in greater detail. Below is the latest track guidance from the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD).


One other area of interest is the system called 98L. Though thunderstorm activity is very minimal there is a distinct low center. If this holds together for another couple of days this could become our next depression as environmental condition may improve for development.

No More Recon Data Tonight

There will be no more data tonight from the recon plane since it aborted its mission due to severe turbulence and grouple (ice chunks). I will still have another update in about an hour or so.

Felix Now a Category 5 Storm

At 8PM the NHC issued a special advisory to update the location and intensity of Felix. Winds are now 165mph and the pressure is 934mb. That is a 59mb drop in 21 hours, 46mb in the last 9 hours. This makes Felix the second category five storm this season.

I will have another update when the next recon report comes out.

Felix Image

Not much new in the 11PM advisory. Pressure is 993mb and maximum winds are estimated at 75mph but may be higher. The next recon trip will confirm this. Here is the latest IR image of Felix from 10:15pm tonight.

Hurricane Felix

Tonight at the 8PM advisory the NHC upgraded Felix to a hurricane. Track models are unanimous in taking Felix towards the west and into the Yucatan Peninsula. Intensity models are all over the place. The GFNI and HWFI weaken the storm to a minimal tropical storm over the next few days while the LGEM and SHIPS takes it a mjor hurricane in three days.

Conditions appear very favorable for strengthening and the official forecast brings Felix up to a major hurricane in four days. Some of the last visible images indicated that an eye feature was becoming present.

Elsewhere there is another system I am watching in the mid-Atlantic. This system was looking better this afternoon but the latest IR images are not very impressive so we will see what happens overnight.