Harardous Weather Week Begins Monday

Starting Monday the state of Florida will begin its Hazardous Weather Week. Monday will be dedicated to lightning. Below is the Public Information Statement from the NWS with lightning information for all of us.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

...FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK...
...MONDAY FEBRUARY 2 IS LIGHTNING AWARENESS DAY...

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S DEADLIEST AND MOST UNPREDICATABLE
PHENOMENA. METEOROLOGISTS CAN ACCURATELY FORECAST THE GENERAL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL CAUSE LIGHTNING, BUT NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ONE WILL STRIKE.

DURING ANY GIVEN YEAR, AN AVERAGE OF 2 PEOPLE ARE KILLED BY
LIGHTNING IN SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 9 PEOPLE INJURED.
DURING 2008, SOUTH FLORIDA WAS VERY FORTUNATE IN THAT NO ONE WAS
REPORTED TO BE KILLED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
IN 4 YEARS THAT NO REPORTED LIGHTNING DEATHS WERE OBSERVED, AND ONLY
THE THIRD TIME SINCE 1970. DESPITE THE LACK OF DEATHS, 11 PEOPLE
WERE INJURED LAST YEAR BY LIGHTNING STRIKES, TWO ABOVE THE YEARLY
AVERAGE. THIS MEANS THAT ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING ISN'T ALWAYS DEADLY, IT
ONLY TAKES A NEAR MISS TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT SOMEONE'S LIFE.

ONE ASPECT OF LIGHTNING THAT IS COMMON IN SOUTH FLORIDA BUT CAN BE
DECEIVING IS THE PERCEPTION THAT LIGHTNING ONLY STRIKES WHEN DARK
CLOUDS ARE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SEVERAL CASES IN THE PAST FEW YEARS
HAVE PROVEN THIS TO BE FALSE. LIGHTNING COMMONLY STRIKES SEVERAL
MILES AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AREA OF THE THUNDERSTORM, AND IN SOME
CASES CAN STRIKE UP TO 10 MILES AWAY OR MORE! THIS TYPE OF LIGHTNING
IS MISLEADINGLY REFERRED TO AS DRY LIGHTNING OR BOLTS FROM THE BLUE,
BUT THEY STRIKE FROM THE SIDES OF THE CLOUDS AND ARE JUST AS STRONG
AS THOSE THAT OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. THEREFORE,
THE GREATEST DANGER OFTEN COMES WITH THE FIRST OR LAST FLASH WHEN
PEOPLE LEAST EXPECT IT.

PEOPLE SHOULD HEAD INSIDE WHEN DARKENING CLOUDS APPEAR. A GOOD RULE
OF THUMB TO USE IS THE 30-30 RULE TO PREVENT BEING STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. THIS MEANS HEADING INDOORS WHENEVER THUNDER IS HEARD 30
SECONDS OR LESS AFTER THE LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED, AND REMAINING
INSIDE UNTIL 30 MINUTES AFTER THE LAST CLAP OF THUNDER IS HEARD.

RECENT STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT TEENAGE BOYS ARE THE MOST LIKELY
GROUP TO BE KILLED BY LIGHTNING IN FLORIDA. THE AGE GROUP FROM 10 TO
19 YEARS OF AGE HAS THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DEATHS, FOLLOWED BY THOSE
IN THEIR 30S AND 20S. THE NUMBER OF 10 TO 19 YEAR OLD LIGHTNING
DEATHS IS GREATER THAN THE NUMBER OF LIGHTNING DEATHS OF THOSE 40
AND OLDER.

LIGHTNING ALSO CAUSES MORE THAN ITS SHARE OF PROPERTY DAMAGE. DAMAGE
IN 2008 FROM LIGHTNING TOTALLED ABOUT $70,000 IN SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONE.

SINCE 1959 THE THREE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COUNTIES OF MIAMI DADE,
BROWARD AND PALM BEACH HAVE EXPERIENCED A COMBINED 92 LIGHTNING
DEATHS, THE MOST OF ANY THREE CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES IN THE UNITED
STATES. THIS INCLUDES 34 DEATHS IN MIAMI DADE COUNTY, 31 IN BROWARD
COUNTY AND 27 IN PALM BEACH COUNTY.

ALTHOUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOES NOT ISSUE SPECIFIC
LIGHTNING WARNINGS...PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND THE SURF FORECAST DESCRIBE THE DAILY LIGHTNING DANGER IN SOUTH
FLORIDA ON A SCALE RANGING FROM NONE...TO SLIGHT...TO MODERATE...TO
HIGH. WHEN A STORM PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED OR IS
IMMINENT, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS ISSUED TO ALERT OF ITS
LOCATION. CHECKING THESE PRODUCTS BEFORE VENTURING OUTSIDE CAN MAKE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH.

REMEMBER, ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE A LIGHTNING FLASH WHICH CAN
KILL YOU AND THOSE NEARBY.

SOME LOCATIONS ARE MORE DANGEROUS THAN OTHERS. THE GREATEST NUMBER
OF PEOPLE IN FLORIDA ARE STRUCK WHILE NEAR A BODY OF WATER. THIS
INCLUDES PEOPLE AT THE BEACH, NEAR LAKES ON FISHING PIERS AND IN
SMALL BOATS. ANOTHER VULNERABLE LOCATION IS AN OPEN AREA WITH FEW
TRESS AROUND SUCH AS A BALL FIELD, PLAYGROUND OR GOLF COURSE.
SCHOOL RELATED ACTIVITIES ALSO RATE HIGH IN LIGHTNING VULNERABILITY.
THESE INCLUDE WALKING TO AND FROM SCHOOL AND AFTER SCHOOL EVENTS.

THE INCREASING NUMBER OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ALSO
PUTS CONSTRUCTION WORKERS AND EVEN RESIDENTS IN UPPER FLOORS AT A
GREATER RISK SINCE TALL OBJECTS ARE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING MUCH MORE
FREQUENTLY THAN OBJECTS CLOSE TO THE GROUND.

NO PLACE OUTDOORS IS SAFE FROM LIGHTNING. EVEN THE INSIDE OF AN
AUTOMOBILE, WHILE SAFER THAN BEING OUTSIDE, IS NOT AS SAFE AS BEING
INSIDE AN ENCLOSED BUILDING. IF PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS, STAY
INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
SHELTER INSIDE AN ENCLOSED BUILDING IF A THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES OR
FORMS NEARBY.

FOR FURTHER LIGHTNING INFORMATION, AS WELL AS DAILY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WHICH INDICATE THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA, AS WELL AS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS, PLEASE VISIT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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Cold Front

Our latest cold front came through the area today bringing a few showers and much cooler weather with it. After a high today of 80F at Pompano we will see our Saturday morning low bottom out around 45F.

The front was proceeded by fog this morning that brought visibilities down under a mile along the east coast and even less than a quarter of a mile further inland. This was caused by the warm, moist air that was ahead of the cold front.

Tonight should be our coldest night of this front with a second front coming through the area on Tuesday. This front looks like it could bring some winter weather all along the east coast of the US, with continued cool/cold conditions for us and possibly a wintry mix from the Carolinas and further north.

Stay warm :)

Cold Weekend Coming Up

Another strong cold front will pass through the area on Friday bringing more winter like temperatures this weekend. Here is a statement from the NWS in Miami:

FREEZE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS...
...LOW WIND CHILL READINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD AIRMASS PUSHING DOWN THE PENINSULA
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE FREEZING MARK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME. PEOPLE SHOULD
ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF OR AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY STEPS TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...AS TEMPERATURES BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR A SEVERAL HOURS
CAN STILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY
AT SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH, HOWEVER THIS MAY STILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS VALUES OF AROUND 40 OR LESS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

CLEAR SKIES AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

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Thursday Morning Recap

Here is a statement from the NWS in Miami summarizing the "cool" temperatures we woke up to. Also as a side note, Pompano was actually a degree warmer Thursday morning compared to Wednesday morning, 39F Wednesday and 40F Thursday. This compares to 49F this morning.

EARLY THIS MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES PLUMMETED TO BELOW FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. IN FACT, A HARD
FREEZE OCCURRED OVER SOME NORTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. READINGS WERE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FROM PARTS OF GLADES COUNTY SOUTH ACROSS
MOST OF HENDRY COUNTY INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN THE BELLE GLADE AREA ALSO SAW LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ALSO MANAGED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
LOWS BETWEEN 30 AND 32 WERE REGISTERED AS FAR SOUTH AS TAMIAMI TRAIL
IN COLLIER COUNTY, AND IN THE FAR WESTERN SUBURBS OF PALM BEACH,
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

HERE ARE SOME SELECT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA
(UNOFFICIAL READINGS INDICATED BY *):

GLADES COUNTY
PALMDALE: 23 (22 RECORDED AT 2 FT ELEVATION)*
ORTONA: 27
MOORE HAVEN: 30

HENDRY COUNTY:
LABELLE: 27
DEVILS GARDEN: 29
BIG CYPRESS: 29
AIRGLADES AIRPORT: 30 (29 RECORDED AT 2 FT ELEVATION)*
CLEWISTON: 30 *

INLAND COLLIER COUNTY:
IMMOKALEE: 27 (25 RECORDED AT 2 FT ELEVATION)*
GOLDEN GATE ESTATES: 27 *
BIG CORKSCREW: 31 *
GOLDEN GATE: 32 *

INLAND AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY:
BELLE GLADE: 28 (26 RECORDED AT 2 FT ELEVATION)*
SOUTH BAY: 31
THE ACREAGE: 31 *
JUPITER FARMS: 31 *
LOXAHATCHEE: 31 *
WELLINGTON: 34 *

INLAND BROWARD
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR COLLIER COUNTY LINE: 32 *
CORAL SPRINGS: 31 *
WESTON: 36
SOUTHWEST RANCHES: 35 *

INLAND MIAMI-DADE:
TAMIAMI AIRPORT: 31
THE REDLAND: 32 (30 AT 2 FT ELEVATION) *
HOMESTEAD: 35 (33 AT 2 FT ELEVATION) *

OVER METRO AREAS, LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. NAPLES GOT DOWN TO 34, WITH MARCO ISLAND REGISTERING A
NEAR-FREEZING 33. OVER ON THE EAST COAST, LOWS RANGED FROM 35 AT
WEST PALM BEACH TO 43 AT MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, WITH MOST
EASTERN METRO LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. A NOTABLE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS IN CORAL SPRINGS WHERE AN UNOFFICIAL
TEMPERATURE OF 31 WAS RECORDED.

AREAS OF FROST WERE COMMON OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN LOCATIONS, WITH
PATCHY FROST ON ROOFTOPS AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS OBSERVED IN METRO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THE FULL EXTENT OF CROP DAMAGE FROM THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE KNOWN FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT THE TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED THIS MORNING ARE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING CROPS, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT DROPPED INTO THE 20S.

Freeze Warning in Effect Until 9AM

Already 43F as of 10PM at PMP. That is a drop of 7F since 6PM.

I am predicting a low of 37F with some patchy frost in many areas and more widespread the further west you go.
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Coldest Daytime Highs in Six Years

From the NWS this afternoon:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 
440 PM EST WED JAN 21 2009 

...COLDEST MAXIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURES IN SIX YEARS OVER MUCH OF  
SOUTH FLORIDA... 

DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY  
ONLY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS A RESULT OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC  
AIRMASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE  
TEMPERATURES WERE THE COLDEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS  
OBSERVED SINCE JANUARY 2003.  

HERE ARE TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE FOUR PRIMARY OBSERVATIONS  
SITES ALONG WITH THE LAST DATE THESE READINGS WERE AS COLD OR COLDER: 

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: 57 DEGREES, COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 18,  
2003 (55 DEGREES). 

FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: 58 DEGREES, COLDEST SINCE  
FEBRUARY 13, 2006 (58 DEGREES). 

PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: 56 DEGREES, COLDEST SINCE JANUARY  
24, 2003 (50 DEGREES). 

NAPLES REGIONAL AIRPORT: 56 DEGREES, COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 24, 2003  
(56 DEGREES). 

PALM BEACH AND NAPLES AIRPORTS BOTH SET DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURE READINGS, WITH MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE FALLING JUST  
SHORT OF THEIR DAILY RECORDS. 

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN SOUTH FLORIDA THIS TIME OF YEAR IS  
IN THE MID 70S. 

Last Night's Lows

Here are the lows from last night and yesterday's highs. Another cold night ahead. Stay warm!

AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS HIGH LOW PCPN

FORT LAUDERDALE INTL :FLL 69 41 0.00
FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC :FXE 68 39 0.00
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL :MIA 69 42 0.00
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT :APF 69 39 0.00
OPA LOCKA AIRPORT :OPF 68 41 0.00
PEMBROKE PINES :HWO 68 40 0.00
POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT :PMP 68 39 0.00
WEST KENDALL/TAMIAMI AP :TMB 68 40 0.00
WEST PALM BEACH :PBI 67 36 0.00

Happy 2009!

Happy New Year and welcome to my first post of the year. As I write this we have a cold front sweeping through the area which has generated some showers this afternoon and tonight. Most of this weather should pass by midnight with temperatures dropping to the lower 50s along the coastal areas and upper 40s in western areas. This will be about a 30 degree drop from today's high which was 80F at Pompano. The breezy conditions will continue through the morning.

This cooler weather will continue through Saturday and back to average temperatures on Sunday. Dry conditions will be with us through Friday when another front will come through and then mostly dry for the weekend.

I will have an update on the cooler weather later this week. Enjoy it!

Tornado Watch Has Ended and So Has Hurricane Season

For most of the afternoon we were in a Tornado Watch. The watch was actually extended by an hour for Broward and Miami-Dade counties while the squall line finished going through the area. For the most part there were no reports of severe weather associated with this feature in south Florida. There were power outages throughout the state and at least one tornado near Celebration.

For the remainder of the night we will see more showers and this will linger through Monday morning. After that skies will clear and the cooler weather will filter in. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the lower 50s.

Before the weather set in today NWS in Miami was asked to do a special upper air observation. The results of this yielded a very interesting depiction for south Florida and played a big part of the reasoning for the Tornado Watch. Here is the chart:



You can see around the 700mb level the sudden change between the temperature and the dewpoint. This is very rare for south Florida and if we had a bit more sunshine to help destabilize the atmosphere we could have had some serious weather around.

The final note tonight is that the 2008 Hurricane Season ends today. I will post some data later this week. The Sun-Sentinel ran a good summary story today and you can find it here.

Have a good night.

Hurricane Paloma

Hurricane Paloma reached a peak intensity his afternoon of 145mph. Around 6PM this evening Palolma came ashore Cuba as a major hurricane. With the 10PM advisory the max winds have decreased to 115mph, still a major hurricane though.

The official 1oPM advisory puts extreme southeast Florida in the cone of concern in say five. This forecast path take Paloma into the Bahamas and then veers back towards the northwest. This type of motion is in reaction to a front that will be approaching our area. As this front interacts with Paloma the structure of the storm will be disrupted and should be weakening at that point.

I will have an update Sunday afternoon.

Tropical Weather in November

Even though we had a good cold front come through last week does not mean we are done with the tropics yet.

There is an area of disturbed weather around the western Carribean Sea and upper level winds appear favorable for some developement.

I will have more tonight.

For Tuesday go VOTE!!!!!
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Record Cold in South Florida

From the NWS in Miami...by the way I just witnessed snow on top of 30 Rock in New York City.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

....RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTED IN MINIMUM AND LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAT BROKE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH.

THESE STATIONS REPORTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT BROKE PREVIOUS
RECORDS FOR TODAY:

NAPLES: 48 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 51 DEGREES IN 1943)
WEST PALM BEACH: 50 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 51 DEGREES IN 1944)
MIAMI BEACH: 55 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 58 DEGREES IN 1943)

THESE STATIONS BROKE THE LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR
YESTERDAY:

MIAMI: 71 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1937)
MIAMI BEACH: 68 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 75 DEGREES IN 1957)
FORT LAUDERDALE: 71 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1943)
WEST PALM BEACH: 67 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 76 DEGREES IN 1997)
NAPLES: 69 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 72 DEGREES IN 2001)

IN ADDITION, THESE COOPERATIVE STATIONS REPORTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAT BROKE THE RECORDS FOR TODAY:

CLEWISTON: 42 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 53 DEGREES IN 2001)
DEVILS GARDEN: 44 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 50 DEGREES IN 2001)
IMMOKALEE: 42 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 49 DEGREES IN 1987)
LABELLE: 43 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 47 DEGREES IN 1957)
POMPANO BEACH: 52 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 56 DEGREES IN 1990)

ALSO, LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS WERE BROKEN YESTERDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COOPERATIVE STATIONS:

CLEWISTON: 67 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 70 DEGREES IN 1957)
DEVILS GARDEN: 65 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 2001)
LABELLE: 65 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1952)
MOORE HAVEN: 66 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 70 DEGREES IN 1943)
POMPANO BEACH: 68 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 72 DEGREES IN 1952)

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Rain and Cooler Weather Ahead

. For those of us in northern Broward rain is currently falling. In the last hour 0.71 inches of rain fell at Pompano Airport. Tonight through Friday we will see rain all across the area with rainfall totals averaging between two and four inches with a few areas possibly getting six inches. A good chance of rain will continue through Saturday into Sunday morning where it looks like we will have our first cold front come through the area drying us out and bringing cooler weather Sunday night. At this point our lows Monday morning will be around 65F and a high Monday of 79F.

I will update Twitter if any warnings are issues and will broadcast any weather headlines as well.

Hurricane Season Not Over Yet

We are late in the season but it is not over yet. Wilma hit south Florida on October 24, 2005 so we must remain aware of the tropics.

Tonight I am watching an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system appeared to be getting better organized this afternoon but over the past few hours there has not been much change. The system should move inland over the Yucatan peninsula for the next couple day. After that it could move into the Gulf of Mexico and from there some models bring a weak tropical storm to the west coast of Florida. Other models do not develop the system and some bring the system further west into Mexico.

I will continue to monitor the system so please visit again tomorrow for more.

October

The tropics are quiet right now but an interesting fact from the NWS is that October is the most active month for tropical systems to affect south Florida. It was three years ago this month that Wilma came across our area as a category two hurricane.

Dr. Grey and his team at CSU announced yesterday they are updating their forecast and are now predicting three named systems with two of those being hurricanes one of which being cat 3 or stronger.

Some global models are indicating an upswing in activity in the Atlantic next week so continue to check back for updates.
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Not Yet a Depression

An update from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO INDICATE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE DATA
SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.

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Next System Could be Forming

Just in from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

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Ike Coming Ashore and Watching to the Southeast

The area of disturbed weather to our southeast is being watched for development which is not imminent at this time but we will continue to watch it. Below are the latest model runs which bring it very close to Florida in many cases. Intensity models are split between a tropical storm force system forming or a system that remains relatively weak. Below are the tracks.

I am currently watching live coverage of Ike coming ashore Texas at this time with winds of 110mph. If you have DirecTV you can tune to channel 361 and see the live, local coverage from KHOU-TV. They recently reported 300,000 customers are already without power. Make that 315,000 now.

Also of interest is that their hurricane specialist is Dr. Neil Frank, former Director of the National Hurricane Center.

Check back tomorrow for an update on the system to our southeast. Updates will also be on Twitter.

Live Coverage of Ike

You can listen to KHOU on channel 247 on XM Radio and also live audio and video and DirecTV channel 361.
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Disturbed Area of Weather East of Florida

According the the NHC this area has a 20% (low) chance of developing into a depression as it moves towards the west. Earlier this evening the convection had died down but has come back a bit in the past couple of hours.

Earlier today there were some models run on this system and their output had the system going anywhere towards the north to the west, including south Florida. I will have further updates tomorrow. Please note that there were no model runs on this system tonight but may resume tomorrow if the convection continues. Check back tomorrow for an update.