Tornado Watch Has Ended and So Has Hurricane Season

For most of the afternoon we were in a Tornado Watch. The watch was actually extended by an hour for Broward and Miami-Dade counties while the squall line finished going through the area. For the most part there were no reports of severe weather associated with this feature in south Florida. There were power outages throughout the state and at least one tornado near Celebration.

For the remainder of the night we will see more showers and this will linger through Monday morning. After that skies will clear and the cooler weather will filter in. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the lower 50s.

Before the weather set in today NWS in Miami was asked to do a special upper air observation. The results of this yielded a very interesting depiction for south Florida and played a big part of the reasoning for the Tornado Watch. Here is the chart:



You can see around the 700mb level the sudden change between the temperature and the dewpoint. This is very rare for south Florida and if we had a bit more sunshine to help destabilize the atmosphere we could have had some serious weather around.

The final note tonight is that the 2008 Hurricane Season ends today. I will post some data later this week. The Sun-Sentinel ran a good summary story today and you can find it here.

Have a good night.

Hurricane Paloma

Hurricane Paloma reached a peak intensity his afternoon of 145mph. Around 6PM this evening Palolma came ashore Cuba as a major hurricane. With the 10PM advisory the max winds have decreased to 115mph, still a major hurricane though.

The official 1oPM advisory puts extreme southeast Florida in the cone of concern in say five. This forecast path take Paloma into the Bahamas and then veers back towards the northwest. This type of motion is in reaction to a front that will be approaching our area. As this front interacts with Paloma the structure of the storm will be disrupted and should be weakening at that point.

I will have an update Sunday afternoon.

Tropical Weather in November

Even though we had a good cold front come through last week does not mean we are done with the tropics yet.

There is an area of disturbed weather around the western Carribean Sea and upper level winds appear favorable for some developement.

I will have more tonight.

For Tuesday go VOTE!!!!!
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Record Cold in South Florida

From the NWS in Miami...by the way I just witnessed snow on top of 30 Rock in New York City.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

....RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTED IN MINIMUM AND LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAT BROKE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH.

THESE STATIONS REPORTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT BROKE PREVIOUS
RECORDS FOR TODAY:

NAPLES: 48 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 51 DEGREES IN 1943)
WEST PALM BEACH: 50 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 51 DEGREES IN 1944)
MIAMI BEACH: 55 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 58 DEGREES IN 1943)

THESE STATIONS BROKE THE LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR
YESTERDAY:

MIAMI: 71 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1937)
MIAMI BEACH: 68 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 75 DEGREES IN 1957)
FORT LAUDERDALE: 71 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1943)
WEST PALM BEACH: 67 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 76 DEGREES IN 1997)
NAPLES: 69 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 72 DEGREES IN 2001)

IN ADDITION, THESE COOPERATIVE STATIONS REPORTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAT BROKE THE RECORDS FOR TODAY:

CLEWISTON: 42 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 53 DEGREES IN 2001)
DEVILS GARDEN: 44 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 50 DEGREES IN 2001)
IMMOKALEE: 42 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 49 DEGREES IN 1987)
LABELLE: 43 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 47 DEGREES IN 1957)
POMPANO BEACH: 52 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 56 DEGREES IN 1990)

ALSO, LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS WERE BROKEN YESTERDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COOPERATIVE STATIONS:

CLEWISTON: 67 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 70 DEGREES IN 1957)
DEVILS GARDEN: 65 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 2001)
LABELLE: 65 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1952)
MOORE HAVEN: 66 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 70 DEGREES IN 1943)
POMPANO BEACH: 68 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 72 DEGREES IN 1952)

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Rain and Cooler Weather Ahead

. For those of us in northern Broward rain is currently falling. In the last hour 0.71 inches of rain fell at Pompano Airport. Tonight through Friday we will see rain all across the area with rainfall totals averaging between two and four inches with a few areas possibly getting six inches. A good chance of rain will continue through Saturday into Sunday morning where it looks like we will have our first cold front come through the area drying us out and bringing cooler weather Sunday night. At this point our lows Monday morning will be around 65F and a high Monday of 79F.

I will update Twitter if any warnings are issues and will broadcast any weather headlines as well.

Hurricane Season Not Over Yet

We are late in the season but it is not over yet. Wilma hit south Florida on October 24, 2005 so we must remain aware of the tropics.

Tonight I am watching an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system appeared to be getting better organized this afternoon but over the past few hours there has not been much change. The system should move inland over the Yucatan peninsula for the next couple day. After that it could move into the Gulf of Mexico and from there some models bring a weak tropical storm to the west coast of Florida. Other models do not develop the system and some bring the system further west into Mexico.

I will continue to monitor the system so please visit again tomorrow for more.

October

The tropics are quiet right now but an interesting fact from the NWS is that October is the most active month for tropical systems to affect south Florida. It was three years ago this month that Wilma came across our area as a category two hurricane.

Dr. Grey and his team at CSU announced yesterday they are updating their forecast and are now predicting three named systems with two of those being hurricanes one of which being cat 3 or stronger.

Some global models are indicating an upswing in activity in the Atlantic next week so continue to check back for updates.
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Not Yet a Depression

An update from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO INDICATE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE DATA
SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.

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Next System Could be Forming

Just in from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

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Ike Coming Ashore and Watching to the Southeast

The area of disturbed weather to our southeast is being watched for development which is not imminent at this time but we will continue to watch it. Below are the latest model runs which bring it very close to Florida in many cases. Intensity models are split between a tropical storm force system forming or a system that remains relatively weak. Below are the tracks.

I am currently watching live coverage of Ike coming ashore Texas at this time with winds of 110mph. If you have DirecTV you can tune to channel 361 and see the live, local coverage from KHOU-TV. They recently reported 300,000 customers are already without power. Make that 315,000 now.

Also of interest is that their hurricane specialist is Dr. Neil Frank, former Director of the National Hurricane Center.

Check back tomorrow for an update on the system to our southeast. Updates will also be on Twitter.

Live Coverage of Ike

You can listen to KHOU on channel 247 on XM Radio and also live audio and video and DirecTV channel 361.
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Disturbed Area of Weather East of Florida

According the the NHC this area has a 20% (low) chance of developing into a depression as it moves towards the west. Earlier this evening the convection had died down but has come back a bit in the past couple of hours.

Earlier today there were some models run on this system and their output had the system going anywhere towards the north to the west, including south Florida. I will have further updates tomorrow. Please note that there were no model runs on this system tonight but may resume tomorrow if the convection continues. Check back tomorrow for an update.

Houston's Statement for Ike's Landfall

This is from the NWS in Houston, Texas from this evening's Hurricane Local Statement.


LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

A New Area to Watch

A new area of weather has developed in the Atlantic that the models have picked up on. Some of the models bring this system as a tropical storm into our area.

I will have an update later tonight with the current details and model outputs.
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11PM Adisory on Ike

Just read the 11PM package for Ike and the five day forecast point is 26.0/80.0 or just offshore Broward county with 130mph winds with gusts up to 155mph. This is a five day forecast with a large degree of error in both location and intensity

Ike and South Florida

With the 5PM NHC forecast point less than 100 miles off the coast of southeast Florida all attention is turning to Ike. Just looked at the 8PM early cycle models and as they did six hours ago many of them point right into the area. Intensity models of these models range from borderline cat 1/2 up to cat 4 (HWFI and AVN).

The official local forecast has "hurricane conditions possible" for Monday night and Tuesday day. Please take time on Friday not only to keep track of Ike but to go over your emergency supplies and plans and make sure you are ready for Ike. This appears to be our biggest tropical threat since Wilma.

More frequent updates here and through Twitter, stay tuned.

Watching Ike

From this morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook:

HURRICANE IKE LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY MONDAY. IKE IS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS ON
HURRICANE IKE AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD THE HURRICANE THREATENS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

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Hanna Getting Stronger

Just received a report from the recon plane and Hanna now has a minimum pressure of 985mb and winds estimated at the surface near 75mph. She could be upgraded to a hurricane for the 2PM advisory.
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Hanna Getting a Bit Better Organized

Hanna is look somewhat better organized tonight compared to earlier today. As of 11PM maximum winds are 50MPH with a minimum pressure of 997mb. The official forecast calls for Hanna to move in a mostly westerly direction then as she reaches the middle Bahamas turns towards the northwest then north-northwest.

Below is the latest model map from FSU and you can see some consensus on where Hanna may go. But there are couple of outliers, including the very good NOGAPS. If the southerly motion that some of these models are forecasting will have to occur in the next 12 hours or so to be believable. Check back tomorrow morning for more information.

Gustav Getting Stronger, Where is Hanna Going?

I have been watching Gustav become stronger today and a little weaker with the 11PM advisory with a pressure of 948mb and maximum winds at 140mph. The forecast from the NHC is for Gustav to become a category 5 hurricane tomorrow and at least maintain category 4 status through landfall on Monday or Tuesday along the northern Gulf coast.

Hanna on the other hand was moving erratically late this afternoon and this evening. As of 11PM her maximum winds were at 50mph and the pressure has remained steady at 1000mb. The forecast track is still uncertain but south Florida remains in the forecast cone. The official forecast call for Hanna to continue moving in a more westerly direction until Wednesday when Hanna turns towards the northwest and is located in the eastern Bahama late Thursday. The forecast is certain to change as the models get a better handle on her so please check back for more tomorrow. Intensity forecast for Hanna does not strengthen her beyond a tropical storm at this time though there are a good number of models who do.

If you have not done so already please make sure you are prepared for whatever may come your way.