Next Storm May Form Shortly

From the NHC this morning:

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
CENTERED ABOUT 470 MILES EAST OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS IS
DEVELOPING A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...OR MORE LIKELY A TROPICAL STORM...AT
ANY TIME AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AND IF
CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER TODAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE
BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM.

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Ana and TD3

Real quick post to note that south Florida is now in the official 5 day cone for tropical storm Ana. If it were to impact our area we are looking at the late Wednesday into Thursday.

The NHC will be initiating advisories on TD3 at 11am this morning.

I will have more details later today.

Miami Radar is Now Up

Just a quick note, Miami radar is back in operation after having its panels replaced on the dome. Also it looks as if the FLL and PBI radars are now reporting as well. You can find these on www.wunderground.com

And the tropics...are quiet.
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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Watch is in effect until 3PM for the following Florida counties:

BROWARD CHARLOTTE CITRUS
COLLIER DESOTO GLADES
HARDEE HENDRY HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LEE
LEVY MANATEE MIAMI-DADE
MONROE OKEECHOBEE PALM BEACH
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
SARASOTA SUMTER

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Hottest Day in Southeast Florida

Here is a Public Information Statement from the NWS in Miami reviewing today's high temperatures and a glimpse back at the history of the hottest day previously.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
..UPDATED 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 
458 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2009 
  
..ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT FORT LAUDERDALE 
  
..DAILY RECORDS FALL AT WEST PALM BEACH AND MIAMI 

ACTUAL TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT HAVE ONLY OCCURRED A  
FEW TIMES ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE PERIOD OF  
METEOROLOGICAL RECORD OF ABOUT 100 YEARS.  NORMALLY, ONSHORE  
SEABREEZES KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 100 DEGREES NEAR THE HEAVILY  
POPULATED COASTAL AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD, PALM BEACH, MAINLAND  
MONROE, AND COLLIER COUNTIES. 

HOWEVER, TODAY, MONDAY, JUNE 22, 2009, A PERSISTENT STRONG WESTERLY  
WIND FLOW KEPT SEA BREEZES FROM DEVELOPING ALONG THE METRO ATLANTIC  
COAST.  THIS ALONG WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALLOWED ACTUAL  
TEMPERATURES TO SOAR NEAR 100 DEGREES IN METRO MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD  
AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES, RESULTING IN NUMEROUS RECORD TEMPERATURES. 

CITY/CLIMATE SITE OLD RECORD AND DATE     NEW RECORD SET JUNE 22 2009 
--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
MIAMI INTL AP     94  1998 AND 1992       98  NEW DAILY RECORD 

FT LAUDERDALE/ 
HOLLYWOOD INTL   96  1956                100 NEW DAILY RECORD 

                 98  JUNE 21 2009        100 NEW MONTHLY RECORD 

                100  AUG 4 1944 
                     JUL 21 1942         100 /TIED/ ALL TIME RECORD 

PALM BEACH INTL   95  2004 AND 1992       96  NEW DAILY RECORD 

TEMPERATURE RECORDS EXTEND BACK TO 1895 AT MIAMI, TO 1912 AT FORT  
LAUDERDALE, AND TO 1888 FOR THE WEST PALM BEACH AREA. 

NOTE...THE FORT LAUDERDALE RECORD OF 100 DEGREES ON AUGUST 4 1944 IS  
SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS BECAUSE OF INSTRUMENT EXPOSURE AND BECAUSE ALMOST  
NO OTHER SOUTH FLORIDA REPORTING STATION REACHED 100 DEGREES ON THAT  
DATE. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT MANY SOUTH FLORIDA LOCATIONS  
REACHED 100 DEGREES ON JULY 21 1942, EVEN THOUGH THE RECORD FOR FORT  
LAUDERDALE FOR THAT MONTH IS INCOMPLETE. 

THE FORT LAUDERDALE HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TEMPERATURE  
ACTUALLY TOUCHED 101 DEGREES FOR A FEW SECONDS JUST AFTER 4 PM EDT  
BUT DID NOT HOLD IT LONG ENOUGH TO BE CONSIDERED THE MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURE FOR THE DAY. 

THE DATE OF JULY 21 1942 IS LIKELY THE PREVIOUS HOTTEST DAY EVER FOR  
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA, AS MANY LOCATIONS REACHED OR EXCEEDED 100  
DEGREES. THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF REPORTED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES  
FOR MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ON THAT DATE... 

JULY 21 1942 MAX TEMPS 

FORT LAUDERDALE 100 EST 
FORTY MILE BEND  99 
HIALEAH         100 
HOMESTEAD       100 
HYPOLUXO         98 
LOXAHATCHEE     101 
MIAMI BEACH      98 
MIAMI INTL AP   100 
MOORE HAVEN     100 
NAPLES           96 
POMPANO BEACH   100 
WEST PALM BEACH 101 

All Time High Tied

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE
TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY HIGH RECORD OF 96 SET IN 1956. THIS
ALSO TIES THE ALL TIME RECORD HIGH TEMP LAST REACHED AUG 4, 1944.

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Weather Watch Possible this Afternoon

The atmosphere is starting to destabilize and we could start seeing some showers/thunderstorms developing north of us and then moving towards the south or southwest. The SPC has issued a discussion and there is a possibility that a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed this afternoon. This is due to our high temperatures and a trough that is starting to dig into the area.

If a watch is issued I will put it out over Twitter along with further updates.

12 Noon Observations

Here are the latest observations from the area. Ft. Lauderdale and Pompano have the highest heat index at 105F. The breeze outside is helping it feel just a bit more tolerable out there. No record highs yet...

SOUTHEAST FLORIDA  
  
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS 
W PALM BEACH   PTSUNNY   90  78  68 NW15G21   29.79S HX 104            
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY   92  75  57 W17       29.80F HX 103            
FT LAUDERDALE  MOSUNNY   94  75  54 W13       29.80F HX 105            
POMPANO BEACH  PTSUNNY   92  77  61 NW17      29.80F HX 105            
PEMBROKE PINES MOSUNNY   92  75  57 W15       29.83S HX 103            
OPA LOCKA      MOSUNNY   92  75  57 W14       29.82F HX 103            
MIAMI          MOSUNNY   90  74  59 W12       29.82F HX  99            
VIRGINIA KEY   NOT AVBL                                                
WEST KENDALL   PTSUNNY   91  76  61 MISG      29.83S HX 103            
HOMESTEAD      MOSUNNY   90  77  66 NW15      29.83F HX 102            
FLAMINGO         N/A     90  77  66 W9G17       N/A  HX 103            
EVERGLADES CIT   N/A     88  75  66 W15G24    29.83F HX  97            
 

Monthly Record High Broken Yesterday

Not only was that a daily record high broken yesterday but also a monthly high in June for Ft. Lauderdale.

RECORD EVENT REPORT...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MONTHLY RECORD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
920 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

...RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE
YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD DAILY HIGH RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1956.
THIS ALSO BREAKS THE PREVIOUS JUNE HIGH RECORD OF 97 LAST SET ON
JUNE 2, 1998.

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Heat Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
358 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2009

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT
THIS EVENING.

A HOT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH AND BE OVERHEAD
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT
INDEX READINGS...OR HOW IT ACTUALLY FEELS TO YOUR BODY WHEN
FACTORING IN THE HIGH HUMIDITY...WILL REACH 105 TO 110 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF HOT TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE
POSSIBLE. HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT CRAMPS BECOME LIKELY AS HEAT
INDICES REACH 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER...AND HEAT STROKE IS POSSIBLE
WITH PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. IT IS ADVISED TO
LIMIT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE
SUN...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.

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One More Day of Heat

Records were broken today with the high temperatures in Ft. Lauderdale (98F), West Palm Beach (96F) and Miami(96F). Conditions are setting up to possibly challenge the all-time record high at these stations tomorrow, 100F in Ft. Lauderdale and 101F in West Palm Beach. The heat index tomorrow will easily be in the range of 105F to 110F. Caution must be used with these temperature so please drink plenty of water and be aware of your exposure to the heat.

Showers and thunderstorms have been limited the past week but there is an impulse of energy from a trough to our north that could affect the area tomorrow afternoon. This system combined with the heat could generate some strong to severe storms. The SPC has placed us in a slight risk for severe weather.

I will update the blog and the Twitter tomorrow as conditions warrant. And by the way, the tropics remain quiet around the Atlantic basin.

Record Highs Today

Miami, West Palm Beach and Ft. Lauderdale all broke record highs today. Here is the report for FLL:

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1956.

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Morning Atmosphere Parameters

Here are this morning's storm atmosphere parameters for Miami along with comments from NWS Miami:

12Z MIA SOUNDING (06/15/09) EQUIL LEVEL 50935, CAPE 4048, PWAT 1.69,
500 MB TEMP -6.6C, LI INDEX -7.45, HGT OF WET BULB 12389, FRZ LEVEL
14772. THERE IS A HIGH IN CHANCE OF SEEING WET MICROBURST WITH WINDS
BETWEEN 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITH THE ST ORMS, AND SMALL HAIL UP TO DIME
SIZE MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS
TODAY.

The elements exist for some potentially strong to severe storms.

More updates as conditions develop.
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Good Possibilty of More Strong Storms Today

Here are this morning's upper air parameters. Could be an interesting afternoon:

MIA SOUNDING 12Z (06/09/09) EQUIL LEVEL 44877, CAPE 4202, PWAT 1.73,
500 MB TEMP -8.3C, LI INDEX -8.21, HGT OF WET BULB 13101, FRZ LEVEL
15314, AND THE LAPSE RA TE 7.89. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEEING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 80 KNOTS TODAY, ALONG WITH HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST ARE AS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

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Sever Storms Possible Today

Conditions remain ripe for morew thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather. CAPE is above 3600 which is high enough to support good confidence for some interesting weather.

The latest HWO highlights are:

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...FREQUENT LIGHTNING/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE...
...ISOLATED RISK OF SMALL TORNADOES EAST METRO AND COASTAL AREAS...
...WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE ACROSS ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY...

The SPC has placed our area in a slight risk of severe weather.

I will post more as conditions warrant.
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Rainbow

Not much rain here in north Broward but here is a nice rainbow as seen from Deerfield Beach.
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More Rain Today

From this morning's forecast discussion:

"SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND BECOMING FOCUSED
INTERIOR/ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
..THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS EAST COAST
AND AS THEY MOVE OUT INTO THE ADJACENT WATERS..."

We are off to a dry start here in northern Broward but that will change going into the afternoon. Be prepared for some storminess if you are headed out.
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TD1 Advisory #1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012009
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
PASSED TO THE EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS YESTERDAY HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...THE FIRST OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.0 WEST OR ABOUT
310 MILES...500 KM...SOUTH OF PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND ABOUT 635
MILES...1020 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO THREATEN ANY LAND AREAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT THEN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE
OVER COLDER WATERS BY SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...37.3N 71.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

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Depressin Number One Forms in the Atlantic

Off the coast of North Carolina. Advisory to come shortly.
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Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1012 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2009

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PALM BEACH AND
NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES...

AT 1005 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM COCONUT CREEK TO NEAR BOCA
RATON...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. A REPORT WAS RECEIVED OF 53 MPH
AT 944 AM IN DEERFIELD BEACH. IN ADDITION, DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES
3 TO 5 INCHES WHICH WOULD INDICATE PONDING OF ROADWAYS AND
INTERSECTIONS.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

FAU SOUTH CAMPUS...
BOCA WEST...
MISSION BAY...
SOUTH COUNTY REGIONAL PARK...
WHISPER WALK...
MORIKAMI PARK...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH...WHICH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

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A Rainy Night

A rainy evening continues through the night. For most of northeast Broward the rain held off until about 5PM and it has rained almost ever since. As of 11PM Pompano has reported 2.23 inches of rain today.

As far as the low south of the central Bahamas, the NHC is planning on sending out a reconnaissance aircraft tomorrow to investigate the system. Below you will find the latest models on the system. Please keep in mind if the system were to develop, which there is less than a 30% chance of the occurring, intensity models do keep it well below hurricane strength.

I will post more tomorrow.

From the NHC

Here is the statement from the NHC from this afternoon. I will have more information later including model runs.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

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Early Season System?

Very quick post for now and I will expand on it tomorrow. Just looked at some of the models and a couple of them are indicating a closed low developing in the Gulf of Mexico sometime between late Monday into Wednesday. Way too early to say but we do have a cold front that should stall over central Florida late tomorrow and tropical moisture over the Caribbean that will be drawn up over our area during the next few days (remember rainy season is here). Sea surface temperatures are in the upper 70s to low 80s in the area so there are several reasons to watch this area.

More updates tomorrow, good night.

Rainy Season has Begun

Officially from the NWS:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
305 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2009

...RAINY SEASON HAS BEGUN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

AS A RESULT OF THE DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEK, AS WELL AS THE EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MIAMI FORECAST OFFICE HAS DECLARED MAY 11 AS THE BEGINNING OF THE
2009 RAINY SEASON. THIS IS 9 DAYS EARLIER THAN THE MEDIAN START
DATE OF MAY 20 (ABOUT ONE WEEK LATER ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION), AS WELL AS THE EARLIEST START TO THE RAINY
SEASON SINCE 2003. THE EARLY START TO THE RAINY SEASON IS QUITE
WELCOME THIS YEAR DUE TO THE EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS BEING
EXPERIENCED OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE RECENTLY CONCLUDED
DRY SEASON OF 2008-2009 RANKED AS THE SECOND DRIEST DRY SEASON ON
RECORD FOR MOST SOUTH FLORIDA LOCALES, WITH ONLY 1971 BEING DRIER.

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Dr. Gray Predicts a One-in-Three Chance that Florida Will be Struck by a Hurricane

Here is the story from the Sun-Sentinel.

Funnel Clouds Off Boca this Morning

Thanks to Patrick Garmon for sending in these pictures from this morning. These funnel clouds/waterspouts were taken from the Yamato Road/Glades Road areas from Boca Raton looking east. Boca Raton air tower also observed these funnel clouds at 8:18am according a Special Marine Warning issued from the NWS in Miami.

The possiblity of waterspouts were noted in this morning's Harazrdous Weather Outlook issued at 3:44am this morning.

Speaking of funnels, the Vortex2 mission is now in day four. This has been covered widely on The Weather Channel and CNN. Today has been the first day they have been able to encounter severe weather and The Weather Channel has been giving them quite a bit of time. If you have the oppurtunity please tune in. It is very interesting to see how much equipment is being deployed to investigate tornadic developement.

Last but not least for tonight, we have less than 20 days before hurricane season begins. Of course that is when this blog becomes more active. This is the time that all of us should begin our preperations.

Highlights From this Morning's HWO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1036 AM EDT WED APR 29 2009

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

...HIGH RISK FOR WATER SPOUTS...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...
...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE IN COLLIER COUNTY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WATERSPOUTS: THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD CONVERGENCE LINES IN THE NEAR
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE
FOR THE FORMATION OF WATERSPOUTS TODAY.

RIP CURRENTS: EASTERLY WINDS FROM 15 TO 20 MPH TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES. SWIMMING IS NOT ENCOURAGED DUE TO THE
DANGERS POSED BY RIP CURRENTS.

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Tuesday's Weather

Some of us had rain today, many of us did not. Before part of the area was impacted by the rain and thunderstorms Miami broke a record high with a temperature of 91F and West Palm Beach tied a record high of 90F.

Through Tuesday morning central and north Florida had been impacted with severe weather with three tornadoes in Pasco county near Land 'O Lakes and Christmas. In our area we had small hail in Boynton Beach and pea-size hail in Pompano near the intersection of Copans Road and Andrews Avenue this afternoon.

We may see a few showers overnight and possibly a thunderstorm mid to late morning Wednesday before a cold front comes through and stabilizes the atmosphere. Highs tomorrow will be about 87F and lows tomorrow night will be about 64F. Quite a bit cooler than the low tonight of about 75F.

For updates please check my Twitter in the upper right corner of this blog. I am usually able to update there before I update the blog. Also feel free to comment on the blog below or message me.

Have a good night!

EF0 Tornado in Palm Beach County

Those of us in northeast Broward and southeast Palm Beach county saw some rain today. Here at the house we only had .02 inches of rain but a spotter in west Boca reported over four inches of rain.

In northern Palm Beach county the NWS has confirmed an EF0 tornado touched down. Also of this writing the Palm Beach Post is reporting 5300 people are without power. You can read the article here.

Off weather for a minute please check your anti-virus tonight and make sure that it is up to date. April 1 has always been a popular day for the launching trojan payloads associated with some viruses. If you do not currently have up to date anti-virus I would suggest the one I use, Avast Anti-Virus. It is free (with registration) for home use and has NEVER failed me. I know there are others out there but I have found this one to be very good.

Rip Currents

With a fairly warm Saturday still in front of us some of you may be heading to the beach. If so please beware of rip currents. Today's winds will favor the presence of these dangerous currents. The NWS has been issuing statements this morning and the latest is below.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1115 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

/O.CON.KMFL.CF.S.0014.000000T0000Z-090329T0000Z/
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
1115 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2009

...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES...

A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OF 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS...COMBINED WITH A SMALL TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST SWELL...WILL RESULT IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND
PALM BEACH COUNTIES. SWIMMING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

A RIP CURRENT IS A 10 TO 30 YARD WIDE CHANNEL OF WATER THAT CAN
PULL EVEN A STRONG SWIMMER FROM NEAR OR INSIDE THE SAND BAR INTO
DEEPER WATER. DUE TO THE LIFE THREATENING DANGERS THAT THESE
STRONG CURRENTS OF WATER POSE...SWIMMING IS NOT ADVISED.

IF YOU DO GO INTO THE WATERS...SWIM AT GUARDED BEACHES AND HEED
THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL. IF CAUGHT IN THE SEAWARD PULL OF
A RIP CURRENT DO NOT ATTEMPT TO MOVE DIRECTLY TOWARD SHORE.
INSTEAD...MOVE SIDEWAYS ACROSS THE RIP CURRENT UNTIL THE PULL
EASES.

AN ALTERNATE METHOD OF ESCAPE IS TO LET THE RIP CURRENT PULL YOU
SEAWARD 50 TO 100 YARDS...WHERE THE FORCE WEAKENS...AND THEN SWIM
TOWARD THE BEACH AT AN ANGLE AWAY FROM THE CURRENT.

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Record Rainfall for FLL Today

More rain in the area today as FLL sets a daily rainfall record:

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
0521 PM EDT SAT MAR 21 2009

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 1.16 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.04 SET IN 1961.

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6.98 Inches of Rain

Just a quick update, yesterday we had 6.98 inches of rain from 7am Wednesday to 7am this morning.

Some drying is already occurring in the atmosphere so the rain chances are going down and as of now it looks like we have a very nice weather weekend ahead.
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Rain Gauge

Here is a picture of my rain gauge I took when I got home tonight. There is several inches of rain in there. My official measurement will be done in the morning and I will have it posted here. Good night and stay dry.
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Updated Rainfall Totals

Rainfall through 10:50PM:

7.88 COCONUT CREEK
6.10 POMPANO BEACH APT (PMP)
5.70 LAUDERDALE LAKES
5.08 POMPANO BEACH
5.06 OAKLAND PARK
4.81 FT LAUDERDALE NEAR SUNRISE BLVD AND 441
4.70 FT LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE APT (FXE)
4.48 BOCA RATON
4.28 CORAL SPRINGS
4.00 HOMESTEAD
3.90 CUTLER RIDGE
3.79 DELRAY BEACH
3.54 BOYNTON BEACH
3.08 BLACK POINT
3.00 PLANTATION
2.68 LOXAHATCHEE NWR-EAST
2.31 PRINCETON
2.06 LEISURE CITY
1.91 SAWGRASS MILLS
1.64 WEST BOCA
1.63 DAVIE
1.60 NW LAKE OKEECHOBEE
1.60 JUPITER
1.57 NORTH PALM BEACH
1.45 LAKE WORTH
1.41 MIAMI INTERNATIONAL APT (MIA)
1.30 TAMIAMI TR AT KROME AVE
1.11 FT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL APT (FLL)
1.05 JUPITER FARMS
1.01 NORTH MIAMI BEACH
0.92 WESTON AT BONAVENTURE
0.90 PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL APT (PBI)
0.64 BELLE GLADE
0.54 HOMESTEAD GENERAL APT
0.53 W LAKE OKEECHOBEE
0.42 SOUTH BAY
0.39 CLEWISTON FIELD

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Rainfall Totals

Here are some rainfall totals through 5:30PM from the NWS and SFWMD:

7.88 COCONUT CREEK
5.08 POMPANO BEACH
5.07 LAUDERDALE LAKES
4.97 OAKLAND PARK
4.14 FT LAUDERDALE NEAR SUNRISE BLVD AND 441
4.11 CORAL SPRINGS
3.90 CUTLER RIDGE
3.62 BOCA RATON
3.08 BLACK POINT
2.82 DELRAY BEACH
2.78 BOYNTON BEACH
2.33 PLANTATION
2.01 LOXAHATCHEE NWR-EAST
1.74 SAWGRASS MILLS
1.59 NW LAKE OKEECHOBEE
1.54 NORTH PALM BEACH
1.50 PRINCETON
1.40 WEST BOCA
1.25 TAMIAMI TR AT KROME AVE
1.18 LAKE WORTH
1.14 MIAMI INTERNATIONAL APT (MIA)
1.10 LEISURE CITY
1.03 DAVIE
1.03 FT LAUDERDALE/HOLLYWOOD INTERNATIONAL APT(FLL)
1.02 JUPITER
0.93 JUPITER FARMS
0.89 PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL APT (PBI)
0.59 WESTON AT BONAVENTURE
0.53 W LAKE OKEECHOBEE
0.39 BELLE GLADE
0.38 CLEWISTON FIELD
0.24 SOUTH BAY

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Rain Continues

So far over 4.5 inches of rain at PMP airport since midnight.
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Continued Dry Weather Expected

The NWS in Miami issued a statement this morning updating our area rainfall values and explaining that we may not see as much rain as usual this Spring.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
0400 AM EST FRI MAR 13 2008

....BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FORECAST FOR THIS SPRING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...

THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR DRY SEASON OF 2008/09 HAVE BEEN BELOW
NORMAL...DUE TO THE LA NINA AFFECTS AND THE DRY COLD FRONTS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. HERE ARE SOME TOTALS FOR THE DRY SEASON OF
2008/2009.

AIRPORTS : TOTALS : NORMALS : DEPARTURES

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL : 1.71 : 10.52 : -8.81
FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL : 0.98 : 13.89 : -12.91
PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL : 2.90 : 16.33 : -13.43
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT : 1.40 : 8.55 : -7.15

SECONDARY OBSERVATION SITES

IMMOKALEE : 2.11 : 9.34 : -7.23
DEVILS GARDEN : 2.07 : 9.61 : -7.54
CLEWISTON : 1.97 : 9.87 : -7.90
BELLE GLADE : 2.01 : 10.63 : -8.62
MOORE HAVEN LOCK : 2.42 : 10.19 : -7.77
FLAMINGO RANGER STATION : 1.85 : 9.04 : -7.19
MIAMI BEACH : 1.47 : 10.65 : -9.18

AS A RESULT...THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MONITOR PERSONNEL HAVE PUSHED THE
SEVERE DROUGHT STATUS (D2) WESTWARD TO INCLUDE ALL OF
MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES ALONG WITH SOUTHERN
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WAS STILL IN A
MODERATE DROUGHT STATUS (D1).

LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATER LEVEL WAS ABOUT 2 FEET BELOW NORMAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR AT AROUND 12.5 FEET. THE SOIL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA WAS ALSO BELOW NORMAL.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FOR THE REST
OF THE DRY SEASON CALLS FOR AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW NORMAL
RAINFALL...MAINLY DUE TO THE LA NINA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BEING
EXPERIENCED AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH REST OF THE SPRING.

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Stronger Worded Warnings

Interesting article from the Sun-Sentinel, sounds like the NWS will be a bit more aggresive in their language in warnings (tornado and hurricane) when lives are in danger.

sun-sentinel.com/services/newspaper/printedition/local/sfl-flbwarning0310sbmar10,0,7195240.story

By Ken Kaye

South Florida Sun-Sentinel

March 10, 2009

When hurricanes, tornadoes and severe storms threaten, there's one message forecasters want residents to know: If they don't get out of harm's way, their lives could be in danger.

For that reason, the National Weather Service plans to better describe the most perilous aspects of a storm, be they winds, rain or storm surge, and place them at the top of local forecasts.

"It's not necessarily an overhaul. It's just better focusing the information we want the public to really get," said meteorologist Robert Molleda, who is based in the Miami office of the weather service.

Molleda said the change stems from Hurricane Ike, which slammed Galveston and Houston last September. Some of the local weather advisories "buried" information urging people to evacuate, he said.

At least 12 people died along the Galveston shoreline where the system's storm surge hit, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In another weather disaster, the February 2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak, many residents failed to evacuate because they didn't believe they were under threat until they saw a twister. In all, 82 tornadoes killed 57 people, with most of the deaths in Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee.

After that outbreak, the weather service found that many residents don't sense peril based on forecasts alone.

The agency also discovered that many people minimized the threat because they had "optimism bias," thinking bad things only happen to other people.

Cooler Weather On the Way Again

Another cold front, a rather potent one for March, will come through the area Sunday afternoon and will bring a noticeable change to our temperatures.

Today (Saturday) we are looking at a beautiful, warm day with some clouds and a high near 80F. Tonight's low will be around 68F. As the front approaches tomorrow we will feel the winds pick up in the morning and ahead of the front we will see some showers and thunderstorms. Areas affected with the thunderstorms may see gusts up to 40MPH. The front should pass the area late afternoon with the cooler and dryer air behind. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 40s. The cool weather will stay around through Wednesday. By Thursday temperatures will be increasing to near normal for this time of the year. So do not put the jackets away yet.

One good thing about this front coming in tomorrow is the possibility of rainfall. So far this year we have had .57 inches of rain here at the house and all official stations in the area are well below normal for the year. Though this is normally our "dry season," we have been much dryer than normal. Below is the drought map for the southeast US and as you can see the extreme southeast coast of Florida is now entering into a moderate drought.

Enjoy the weekend and more updates later.

WPB Weather Radio Back in Service

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
925 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2009

THE WEST PALM BEACH NOAA WEATHER RADIO
TRANSMITTER...KEC50...BROADCASTING ON THE FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ...IS
NOW BACK IN SERVICE.

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WPB Weather Radio Problems

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2009

...WEST PALM BEACH WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER TROUBLE...

THE WEST PALM BEACH NOAA WEATHER RADIO
TRANSMITTER...KEC50...BROADCASTING ON THE FREQUENCY 162.475 MHZ...IS
TRANSMITING INTERMEDIATELY. THE BROADCAST IS OCCASIONALLY DROPPING OFF
THE AIR.

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Warm Day on Thursday Then Cooling Off

Tomorrow we will have highs in the lower 80s. That is before a cold front sweeps through cooling us down with lows in the 50s Friday morning and lows in the upper 40s Saturday morning.

This cool down will be short lived as the winds will be from the east on Saturday starting on warming trend. Saturday afternoon we will return to the mid 70s and remain near normal for the next four or five days.

Best chance of rain will be tomorrow night with the frontal passage and then maybe a shower later Saturday and Sunday.
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Test

Test Message.
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Cold Front

After a warm and dry weekend we have a cold front that will usher in cooler weather for the beginning of the week. This front will not be nearly as cold as what we had a couple of weeks ago. Highs for Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower 70s and lows will be around 50.

There will be a second, slightly stronger front affecting us on Friday or Saturday. More on that later this week.

Cold Weather for the Area

Yes, it is fairly cool out there now and will be cold when we wake up on Thursday morning. At this time it looks as if we may flirt with freezing temperatures along the east coast. My forecast for the Pompano area is 45F tonight, high on Wednesday 66F and a low Thursday morning of 36F. Areas further west and north will be cooler.

A Freeze Watch is in effect for Thursday morning for the western half of Broward and all of Palm Beach county, except the immediate coastal areas.

On another note tomorrow is Thunderstorm and Tornado Awareness Day. There will be a state wide tornado drill. Here is the time line for the test:

8:30AM - Test Tornado Watch issued for the entire state.
10:10AM - Test Tornado Warning will be issued.
10:30AM - Drill will end with an "all clear" being announced.

I will post tomorrow with an update on Thursday morning's low and any news of the severe weather drill. Also my Twitter will be updated throughout the day for short updates and changes to watches and warnings.

Stay warm!

More Cold Ahead

I will have more details tomorrow but we are in store for more cold weather this week, possibly colder than two weeks ago. I will leave you with the Freeze Outlook below.

FREEZE OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1014 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2009

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA...POSSIBLY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO AROUND FREEZING BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...AND EVEN
INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTY.

ANOTHER EVEN STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT WILL BE OF
ARCTIC ORIGIN AND WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN A HARD
FREEZE ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS INTERIOR PALM
BEACH...INTERIOR COLLIER...AND INTERIOR BROWARD COUNTIES. THE COLD
AIRMASS COULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALLOWING FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF YET ANOTHER NIGHT OF NEAR FREEZING
TEMPERATURES...MAINLY ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES.

THIS COLD WEATHER EPISODE IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT IN TIME...SO
THINGS COULD TREND WARMER OR COLDER. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THE AREA
ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI.

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Harardous Weather Week Begins Monday

Starting Monday the state of Florida will begin its Hazardous Weather Week. Monday will be dedicated to lightning. Below is the Public Information Statement from the NWS with lightning information for all of us.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2009

...FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK...
...MONDAY FEBRUARY 2 IS LIGHTNING AWARENESS DAY...

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURE'S DEADLIEST AND MOST UNPREDICATABLE
PHENOMENA. METEOROLOGISTS CAN ACCURATELY FORECAST THE GENERAL
CONDITIONS THAT WILL CAUSE LIGHTNING, BUT NO ONE KNOWS FOR SURE
EXACTLY WHERE AND WHEN ONE WILL STRIKE.

DURING ANY GIVEN YEAR, AN AVERAGE OF 2 PEOPLE ARE KILLED BY
LIGHTNING IN SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 9 PEOPLE INJURED.
DURING 2008, SOUTH FLORIDA WAS VERY FORTUNATE IN THAT NO ONE WAS
REPORTED TO BE KILLED BY LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME
IN 4 YEARS THAT NO REPORTED LIGHTNING DEATHS WERE OBSERVED, AND ONLY
THE THIRD TIME SINCE 1970. DESPITE THE LACK OF DEATHS, 11 PEOPLE
WERE INJURED LAST YEAR BY LIGHTNING STRIKES, TWO ABOVE THE YEARLY
AVERAGE. THIS MEANS THAT ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING ISN'T ALWAYS DEADLY, IT
ONLY TAKES A NEAR MISS TO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT SOMEONE'S LIFE.

ONE ASPECT OF LIGHTNING THAT IS COMMON IN SOUTH FLORIDA BUT CAN BE
DECEIVING IS THE PERCEPTION THAT LIGHTNING ONLY STRIKES WHEN DARK
CLOUDS ARE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. SEVERAL CASES IN THE PAST FEW YEARS
HAVE PROVEN THIS TO BE FALSE. LIGHTNING COMMONLY STRIKES SEVERAL
MILES AWAY FROM THE HEAVY RAIN AREA OF THE THUNDERSTORM, AND IN SOME
CASES CAN STRIKE UP TO 10 MILES AWAY OR MORE! THIS TYPE OF LIGHTNING
IS MISLEADINGLY REFERRED TO AS DRY LIGHTNING OR BOLTS FROM THE BLUE,
BUT THEY STRIKE FROM THE SIDES OF THE CLOUDS AND ARE JUST AS STRONG
AS THOSE THAT OCCUR IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. THEREFORE,
THE GREATEST DANGER OFTEN COMES WITH THE FIRST OR LAST FLASH WHEN
PEOPLE LEAST EXPECT IT.

PEOPLE SHOULD HEAD INSIDE WHEN DARKENING CLOUDS APPEAR. A GOOD RULE
OF THUMB TO USE IS THE 30-30 RULE TO PREVENT BEING STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. THIS MEANS HEADING INDOORS WHENEVER THUNDER IS HEARD 30
SECONDS OR LESS AFTER THE LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED, AND REMAINING
INSIDE UNTIL 30 MINUTES AFTER THE LAST CLAP OF THUNDER IS HEARD.

RECENT STUDIES HAVE SHOWN THAT TEENAGE BOYS ARE THE MOST LIKELY
GROUP TO BE KILLED BY LIGHTNING IN FLORIDA. THE AGE GROUP FROM 10 TO
19 YEARS OF AGE HAS THE GREATEST NUMBER OF DEATHS, FOLLOWED BY THOSE
IN THEIR 30S AND 20S. THE NUMBER OF 10 TO 19 YEAR OLD LIGHTNING
DEATHS IS GREATER THAN THE NUMBER OF LIGHTNING DEATHS OF THOSE 40
AND OLDER.

LIGHTNING ALSO CAUSES MORE THAN ITS SHARE OF PROPERTY DAMAGE. DAMAGE
IN 2008 FROM LIGHTNING TOTALLED ABOUT $70,000 IN SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONE.

SINCE 1959 THE THREE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COUNTIES OF MIAMI DADE,
BROWARD AND PALM BEACH HAVE EXPERIENCED A COMBINED 92 LIGHTNING
DEATHS, THE MOST OF ANY THREE CONTIGUOUS COUNTIES IN THE UNITED
STATES. THIS INCLUDES 34 DEATHS IN MIAMI DADE COUNTY, 31 IN BROWARD
COUNTY AND 27 IN PALM BEACH COUNTY.

ALTHOUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOES NOT ISSUE SPECIFIC
LIGHTNING WARNINGS...PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
AND THE SURF FORECAST DESCRIBE THE DAILY LIGHTNING DANGER IN SOUTH
FLORIDA ON A SCALE RANGING FROM NONE...TO SLIGHT...TO MODERATE...TO
HIGH. WHEN A STORM PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED OR IS
IMMINENT, A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT IS ISSUED TO ALERT OF ITS
LOCATION. CHECKING THESE PRODUCTS BEFORE VENTURING OUTSIDE CAN MAKE
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LIFE AND DEATH.

REMEMBER, ANY THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE A LIGHTNING FLASH WHICH CAN
KILL YOU AND THOSE NEARBY.

SOME LOCATIONS ARE MORE DANGEROUS THAN OTHERS. THE GREATEST NUMBER
OF PEOPLE IN FLORIDA ARE STRUCK WHILE NEAR A BODY OF WATER. THIS
INCLUDES PEOPLE AT THE BEACH, NEAR LAKES ON FISHING PIERS AND IN
SMALL BOATS. ANOTHER VULNERABLE LOCATION IS AN OPEN AREA WITH FEW
TRESS AROUND SUCH AS A BALL FIELD, PLAYGROUND OR GOLF COURSE.
SCHOOL RELATED ACTIVITIES ALSO RATE HIGH IN LIGHTNING VULNERABILITY.
THESE INCLUDE WALKING TO AND FROM SCHOOL AND AFTER SCHOOL EVENTS.

THE INCREASING NUMBER OF HIGH RISE BUILDINGS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ALSO
PUTS CONSTRUCTION WORKERS AND EVEN RESIDENTS IN UPPER FLOORS AT A
GREATER RISK SINCE TALL OBJECTS ARE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING MUCH MORE
FREQUENTLY THAN OBJECTS CLOSE TO THE GROUND.

NO PLACE OUTDOORS IS SAFE FROM LIGHTNING. EVEN THE INSIDE OF AN
AUTOMOBILE, WHILE SAFER THAN BEING OUTSIDE, IS NOT AS SAFE AS BEING
INSIDE AN ENCLOSED BUILDING. IF PLANNING TO BE OUTDOORS, STAY
INFORMED OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
SHELTER INSIDE AN ENCLOSED BUILDING IF A THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES OR
FORMS NEARBY.

FOR FURTHER LIGHTNING INFORMATION, AS WELL AS DAILY HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOKS WHICH INDICATE THE THREAT OF LIGHTNING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA, AS WELL AS SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS, PLEASE VISIT THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

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Cold Front

Our latest cold front came through the area today bringing a few showers and much cooler weather with it. After a high today of 80F at Pompano we will see our Saturday morning low bottom out around 45F.

The front was proceeded by fog this morning that brought visibilities down under a mile along the east coast and even less than a quarter of a mile further inland. This was caused by the warm, moist air that was ahead of the cold front.

Tonight should be our coldest night of this front with a second front coming through the area on Tuesday. This front looks like it could bring some winter weather all along the east coast of the US, with continued cool/cold conditions for us and possibly a wintry mix from the Carolinas and further north.

Stay warm :)

Cold Weekend Coming Up

Another strong cold front will pass through the area on Friday bringing more winter like temperatures this weekend. Here is a statement from the NWS in Miami:

FREEZE OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2009

COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:

...TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING POSSIBLE ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS...
...LOW WIND CHILL READINGS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A COLD AIRMASS PUSHING DOWN THE PENINSULA
BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
THE FREEZING MARK LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES FOR A SHORT TIME. PEOPLE SHOULD
ANTICIPATE THE POSSIBILITY OF OR AT LEAST NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY STEPS TO PROTECT TENDER
VEGETATION...AS TEMPERATURES BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR A SEVERAL HOURS
CAN STILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE ON SATURDAY
AT SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 MPH, HOWEVER THIS MAY STILL PRODUCE WIND
CHILLS VALUES OF AROUND 40 OR LESS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

CLEAR SKIES AND EXPECTED LIGHT WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL
MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

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Thursday Morning Recap

Here is a statement from the NWS in Miami summarizing the "cool" temperatures we woke up to. Also as a side note, Pompano was actually a degree warmer Thursday morning compared to Wednesday morning, 39F Wednesday and 40F Thursday. This compares to 49F this morning.

EARLY THIS MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES PLUMMETED TO BELOW FREEZING
OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. IN FACT, A HARD
FREEZE OCCURRED OVER SOME NORTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. READINGS WERE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FROM PARTS OF GLADES COUNTY SOUTH ACROSS
MOST OF HENDRY COUNTY INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY IN THE BELLE GLADE AREA ALSO SAW LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

FARTHER SOUTH, TEMPERATURES ALSO MANAGED TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK.
LOWS BETWEEN 30 AND 32 WERE REGISTERED AS FAR SOUTH AS TAMIAMI TRAIL
IN COLLIER COUNTY, AND IN THE FAR WESTERN SUBURBS OF PALM BEACH,
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

HERE ARE SOME SELECT LOW TEMPERATURES FROM INTERIOR SOUTH FLORIDA
(UNOFFICIAL READINGS INDICATED BY *):

GLADES COUNTY
PALMDALE: 23 (22 RECORDED AT 2 FT ELEVATION)*
ORTONA: 27
MOORE HAVEN: 30

HENDRY COUNTY:
LABELLE: 27
DEVILS GARDEN: 29
BIG CYPRESS: 29
AIRGLADES AIRPORT: 30 (29 RECORDED AT 2 FT ELEVATION)*
CLEWISTON: 30 *

INLAND COLLIER COUNTY:
IMMOKALEE: 27 (25 RECORDED AT 2 FT ELEVATION)*
GOLDEN GATE ESTATES: 27 *
BIG CORKSCREW: 31 *
GOLDEN GATE: 32 *

INLAND AND WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY:
BELLE GLADE: 28 (26 RECORDED AT 2 FT ELEVATION)*
SOUTH BAY: 31
THE ACREAGE: 31 *
JUPITER FARMS: 31 *
LOXAHATCHEE: 31 *
WELLINGTON: 34 *

INLAND BROWARD
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR COLLIER COUNTY LINE: 32 *
CORAL SPRINGS: 31 *
WESTON: 36
SOUTHWEST RANCHES: 35 *

INLAND MIAMI-DADE:
TAMIAMI AIRPORT: 31
THE REDLAND: 32 (30 AT 2 FT ELEVATION) *
HOMESTEAD: 35 (33 AT 2 FT ELEVATION) *

OVER METRO AREAS, LOW TEMPERATURES WERE MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. NAPLES GOT DOWN TO 34, WITH MARCO ISLAND REGISTERING A
NEAR-FREEZING 33. OVER ON THE EAST COAST, LOWS RANGED FROM 35 AT
WEST PALM BEACH TO 43 AT MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, WITH MOST
EASTERN METRO LOCATIONS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. A NOTABLE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WAS IN CORAL SPRINGS WHERE AN UNOFFICIAL
TEMPERATURE OF 31 WAS RECORDED.

AREAS OF FROST WERE COMMON OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN LOCATIONS, WITH
PATCHY FROST ON ROOFTOPS AND ON THE TOPS OF CARS OBSERVED IN METRO
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THE FULL EXTENT OF CROP DAMAGE FROM THE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE KNOWN FOR A FEW DAYS, BUT THE TEMPERATURES
OBSERVED THIS MORNING ARE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING CROPS, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT DROPPED INTO THE 20S.

Freeze Warning in Effect Until 9AM

Already 43F as of 10PM at PMP. That is a drop of 7F since 6PM.

I am predicting a low of 37F with some patchy frost in many areas and more widespread the further west you go.
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Coldest Daytime Highs in Six Years

From the NWS this afternoon:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 
440 PM EST WED JAN 21 2009 

...COLDEST MAXIMUM DAILY TEMPERATURES IN SIX YEARS OVER MUCH OF  
SOUTH FLORIDA... 

DESPITE FULL SUNSHINE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY  
ONLY REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 50S AS A RESULT OF THE MODIFIED ARCTIC  
AIRMASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. SOME OF THESE  
TEMPERATURES WERE THE COLDEST DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE READINGS  
OBSERVED SINCE JANUARY 2003.  

HERE ARE TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE FOUR PRIMARY OBSERVATIONS  
SITES ALONG WITH THE LAST DATE THESE READINGS WERE AS COLD OR COLDER: 

MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: 57 DEGREES, COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 18,  
2003 (55 DEGREES). 

FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: 58 DEGREES, COLDEST SINCE  
FEBRUARY 13, 2006 (58 DEGREES). 

PALM BEACH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT: 56 DEGREES, COLDEST SINCE JANUARY  
24, 2003 (50 DEGREES). 

NAPLES REGIONAL AIRPORT: 56 DEGREES, COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 24, 2003  
(56 DEGREES). 

PALM BEACH AND NAPLES AIRPORTS BOTH SET DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURE READINGS, WITH MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE FALLING JUST  
SHORT OF THEIR DAILY RECORDS. 

THE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURE IN SOUTH FLORIDA THIS TIME OF YEAR IS  
IN THE MID 70S. 

Last Night's Lows

Here are the lows from last night and yesterday's highs. Another cold night ahead. Stay warm!

AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS HIGH LOW PCPN

FORT LAUDERDALE INTL :FLL 69 41 0.00
FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC :FXE 68 39 0.00
MIAMI INTERNATIONAL :MIA 69 42 0.00
NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT :APF 69 39 0.00
OPA LOCKA AIRPORT :OPF 68 41 0.00
PEMBROKE PINES :HWO 68 40 0.00
POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT :PMP 68 39 0.00
WEST KENDALL/TAMIAMI AP :TMB 68 40 0.00
WEST PALM BEACH :PBI 67 36 0.00

Happy 2009!

Happy New Year and welcome to my first post of the year. As I write this we have a cold front sweeping through the area which has generated some showers this afternoon and tonight. Most of this weather should pass by midnight with temperatures dropping to the lower 50s along the coastal areas and upper 40s in western areas. This will be about a 30 degree drop from today's high which was 80F at Pompano. The breezy conditions will continue through the morning.

This cooler weather will continue through Saturday and back to average temperatures on Sunday. Dry conditions will be with us through Friday when another front will come through and then mostly dry for the weekend.

I will have an update on the cooler weather later this week. Enjoy it!

Tornado Watch Has Ended and So Has Hurricane Season

For most of the afternoon we were in a Tornado Watch. The watch was actually extended by an hour for Broward and Miami-Dade counties while the squall line finished going through the area. For the most part there were no reports of severe weather associated with this feature in south Florida. There were power outages throughout the state and at least one tornado near Celebration.

For the remainder of the night we will see more showers and this will linger through Monday morning. After that skies will clear and the cooler weather will filter in. Lows Tuesday morning will be in the lower 50s.

Before the weather set in today NWS in Miami was asked to do a special upper air observation. The results of this yielded a very interesting depiction for south Florida and played a big part of the reasoning for the Tornado Watch. Here is the chart:



You can see around the 700mb level the sudden change between the temperature and the dewpoint. This is very rare for south Florida and if we had a bit more sunshine to help destabilize the atmosphere we could have had some serious weather around.

The final note tonight is that the 2008 Hurricane Season ends today. I will post some data later this week. The Sun-Sentinel ran a good summary story today and you can find it here.

Have a good night.

Hurricane Paloma

Hurricane Paloma reached a peak intensity his afternoon of 145mph. Around 6PM this evening Palolma came ashore Cuba as a major hurricane. With the 10PM advisory the max winds have decreased to 115mph, still a major hurricane though.

The official 1oPM advisory puts extreme southeast Florida in the cone of concern in say five. This forecast path take Paloma into the Bahamas and then veers back towards the northwest. This type of motion is in reaction to a front that will be approaching our area. As this front interacts with Paloma the structure of the storm will be disrupted and should be weakening at that point.

I will have an update Sunday afternoon.

Tropical Weather in November

Even though we had a good cold front come through last week does not mean we are done with the tropics yet.

There is an area of disturbed weather around the western Carribean Sea and upper level winds appear favorable for some developement.

I will have more tonight.

For Tuesday go VOTE!!!!!
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Record Cold in South Florida

From the NWS in Miami...by the way I just witnessed snow on top of 30 Rock in New York City.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1230 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

....RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTED IN MINIMUM AND LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAT BROKE RECORDS FOR THE MONTH.

THESE STATIONS REPORTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT BROKE PREVIOUS
RECORDS FOR TODAY:

NAPLES: 48 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 51 DEGREES IN 1943)
WEST PALM BEACH: 50 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 51 DEGREES IN 1944)
MIAMI BEACH: 55 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 58 DEGREES IN 1943)

THESE STATIONS BROKE THE LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR
YESTERDAY:

MIAMI: 71 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1937)
MIAMI BEACH: 68 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 75 DEGREES IN 1957)
FORT LAUDERDALE: 71 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1943)
WEST PALM BEACH: 67 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 76 DEGREES IN 1997)
NAPLES: 69 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 72 DEGREES IN 2001)

IN ADDITION, THESE COOPERATIVE STATIONS REPORTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
THAT BROKE THE RECORDS FOR TODAY:

CLEWISTON: 42 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 53 DEGREES IN 2001)
DEVILS GARDEN: 44 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 50 DEGREES IN 2001)
IMMOKALEE: 42 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 49 DEGREES IN 1987)
LABELLE: 43 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 47 DEGREES IN 1957)
POMPANO BEACH: 52 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 56 DEGREES IN 1990)

ALSO, LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES RECORDS WERE BROKEN YESTERDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING COOPERATIVE STATIONS:

CLEWISTON: 67 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 70 DEGREES IN 1957)
DEVILS GARDEN: 65 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 2001)
LABELLE: 65 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 73 DEGREES IN 1952)
MOORE HAVEN: 66 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 70 DEGREES IN 1943)
POMPANO BEACH: 68 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD: 72 DEGREES IN 1952)

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Rain and Cooler Weather Ahead

. For those of us in northern Broward rain is currently falling. In the last hour 0.71 inches of rain fell at Pompano Airport. Tonight through Friday we will see rain all across the area with rainfall totals averaging between two and four inches with a few areas possibly getting six inches. A good chance of rain will continue through Saturday into Sunday morning where it looks like we will have our first cold front come through the area drying us out and bringing cooler weather Sunday night. At this point our lows Monday morning will be around 65F and a high Monday of 79F.

I will update Twitter if any warnings are issues and will broadcast any weather headlines as well.

Hurricane Season Not Over Yet

We are late in the season but it is not over yet. Wilma hit south Florida on October 24, 2005 so we must remain aware of the tropics.

Tonight I am watching an area of disturbed weather in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system appeared to be getting better organized this afternoon but over the past few hours there has not been much change. The system should move inland over the Yucatan peninsula for the next couple day. After that it could move into the Gulf of Mexico and from there some models bring a weak tropical storm to the west coast of Florida. Other models do not develop the system and some bring the system further west into Mexico.

I will continue to monitor the system so please visit again tomorrow for more.

October

The tropics are quiet right now but an interesting fact from the NWS is that October is the most active month for tropical systems to affect south Florida. It was three years ago this month that Wilma came across our area as a category two hurricane.

Dr. Grey and his team at CSU announced yesterday they are updating their forecast and are now predicting three named systems with two of those being hurricanes one of which being cat 3 or stronger.

Some global models are indicating an upswing in activity in the Atlantic next week so continue to check back for updates.
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Not Yet a Depression

An update from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
415 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO INDICATE THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA PREVIOUSLY OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS NOW CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PUERTO RICO. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED 30 TO 35 MPH SURFACE WINDS IN
SQUALLS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE DATA
SHOW THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U. S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
MONDAY. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.

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Next System Could be Forming

Just in from the NHC:

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER
RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE AREA
LOCATED ABOUT 70 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 5 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AND
ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE RESPECTIVE WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

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Ike Coming Ashore and Watching to the Southeast

The area of disturbed weather to our southeast is being watched for development which is not imminent at this time but we will continue to watch it. Below are the latest model runs which bring it very close to Florida in many cases. Intensity models are split between a tropical storm force system forming or a system that remains relatively weak. Below are the tracks.

I am currently watching live coverage of Ike coming ashore Texas at this time with winds of 110mph. If you have DirecTV you can tune to channel 361 and see the live, local coverage from KHOU-TV. They recently reported 300,000 customers are already without power. Make that 315,000 now.

Also of interest is that their hurricane specialist is Dr. Neil Frank, former Director of the National Hurricane Center.

Check back tomorrow for an update on the system to our southeast. Updates will also be on Twitter.

Live Coverage of Ike

You can listen to KHOU on channel 247 on XM Radio and also live audio and video and DirecTV channel 361.
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Disturbed Area of Weather East of Florida

According the the NHC this area has a 20% (low) chance of developing into a depression as it moves towards the west. Earlier this evening the convection had died down but has come back a bit in the past couple of hours.

Earlier today there were some models run on this system and their output had the system going anywhere towards the north to the west, including south Florida. I will have further updates tomorrow. Please note that there were no model runs on this system tonight but may resume tomorrow if the convection continues. Check back tomorrow for an update.

Houston's Statement for Ike's Landfall

This is from the NWS in Houston, Texas from this evening's Hurricane Local Statement.


LIFE THREATENING INUNDATION LIKELY!

ALL NEIGHBORHOODS...AND POSSIBLY ENTIRE COASTAL COMMUNITIES...
WILL BE INUNDATED DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK STORM TIDE. PERSONS
NOT HEEDING EVACUATION ORDERS IN SINGLE FAMILY ONE OR TWO STORY
HOMES WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH. MANY RESIDENCES OF AVERAGE
CONSTRUCTION DIRECTLY ON THE COAST WILL BE DESTROYED. WIDESPREAD
AND DEVASTATING PERSONAL PROPERTY DAMAGE IS LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
VEHICLES LEFT BEHIND WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT AWAY. NUMEROUS ROADS
WILL BE SWAMPED...SOME MAY BE WASHED AWAY BY THE WATER. ENTIRE
FLOOD PRONE COASTAL COMMUNITIES WILL BE CUTOFF. WATER LEVELS MAY
EXCEED 9 FEET FOR MORE THAN A MILE INLAND. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN
MULTI-STORY FACILITIES RISK BEING CUTOFF. CONDITIONS WILL BE
WORSENED BY BATTERING WAVES. SUCH WAVES WILL EXACERBATE PROPERTY
DAMAGE...WITH MASSIVE DESTRUCTION OF HOMES...INCLUDING THOSE OF
BLOCK CONSTRUCTION. DAMAGE FROM BEACH EROSION COULD TAKE YEARS TO
REPAIR.

A New Area to Watch

A new area of weather has developed in the Atlantic that the models have picked up on. Some of the models bring this system as a tropical storm into our area.

I will have an update later tonight with the current details and model outputs.
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11PM Adisory on Ike

Just read the 11PM package for Ike and the five day forecast point is 26.0/80.0 or just offshore Broward county with 130mph winds with gusts up to 155mph. This is a five day forecast with a large degree of error in both location and intensity

Ike and South Florida

With the 5PM NHC forecast point less than 100 miles off the coast of southeast Florida all attention is turning to Ike. Just looked at the 8PM early cycle models and as they did six hours ago many of them point right into the area. Intensity models of these models range from borderline cat 1/2 up to cat 4 (HWFI and AVN).

The official local forecast has "hurricane conditions possible" for Monday night and Tuesday day. Please take time on Friday not only to keep track of Ike but to go over your emergency supplies and plans and make sure you are ready for Ike. This appears to be our biggest tropical threat since Wilma.

More frequent updates here and through Twitter, stay tuned.

Watching Ike

From this morning's Hazardous Weather Outlook:

HURRICANE IKE LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY
BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY MONDAY. IKE IS A
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS ON
HURRICANE IKE AND BE READY TO ACT SHOULD THE HURRICANE THREATENS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

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Hanna Getting Stronger

Just received a report from the recon plane and Hanna now has a minimum pressure of 985mb and winds estimated at the surface near 75mph. She could be upgraded to a hurricane for the 2PM advisory.
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Hanna Getting a Bit Better Organized

Hanna is look somewhat better organized tonight compared to earlier today. As of 11PM maximum winds are 50MPH with a minimum pressure of 997mb. The official forecast calls for Hanna to move in a mostly westerly direction then as she reaches the middle Bahamas turns towards the northwest then north-northwest.

Below is the latest model map from FSU and you can see some consensus on where Hanna may go. But there are couple of outliers, including the very good NOGAPS. If the southerly motion that some of these models are forecasting will have to occur in the next 12 hours or so to be believable. Check back tomorrow morning for more information.

Gustav Getting Stronger, Where is Hanna Going?

I have been watching Gustav become stronger today and a little weaker with the 11PM advisory with a pressure of 948mb and maximum winds at 140mph. The forecast from the NHC is for Gustav to become a category 5 hurricane tomorrow and at least maintain category 4 status through landfall on Monday or Tuesday along the northern Gulf coast.

Hanna on the other hand was moving erratically late this afternoon and this evening. As of 11PM her maximum winds were at 50mph and the pressure has remained steady at 1000mb. The forecast track is still uncertain but south Florida remains in the forecast cone. The official forecast call for Hanna to continue moving in a more westerly direction until Wednesday when Hanna turns towards the northwest and is located in the eastern Bahama late Thursday. The forecast is certain to change as the models get a better handle on her so please check back for more tomorrow. Intensity forecast for Hanna does not strengthen her beyond a tropical storm at this time though there are a good number of models who do.

If you have not done so already please make sure you are prepared for whatever may come your way.

Gustav Now a Cat 4

From the NHC:

HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

....GUSTAV BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...WESTERN EYEWALL DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST...NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

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Funnel Cloud East of Pompano Beach

This morning I took the above photo from the parking lot at Costco in Pompano Beach, Florida. From where I was it appeared to be a funnel cloud but later the NWS stated that it was a waterspout. Special thanks to Clare, Kalie and Jamie who were with me at saw this event.

Of course when I spotted this I called the NWS and they shortly thereafter issued a Special Marine Warning and a strongly worded Special Weather Statement which included:

..WATERSPOUT DUE EAST OF POMPANO AIRPORT AT 956 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WATERSPOUT DUE EAST OF THE POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS SHOWER WAS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST IN BETWEEN POMPANO BEACH AND DEERFIELD BEACH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT... LIGHTHOUSE POINT... DEERFIELD BEACH... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE WATERSPOUT MOVES ONSHORE IN WHICH CASE A TORNADO WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

The waterspout did not come ashore and the event that began at about 9:50am ended just before 10am.

Here is the Local Storm Report detailing the event:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 
  
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON 
  
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. 

           ..REMARKS.. 

0953 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 E POMPANO BEACH       26.23N 80.09W  
08/23/2008                   AMZ651             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER  

           SPOTTER BR264 REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OFFSHORE POMPANO  
           BEACH VIEWED FROM I-95 AT SAMPLE ROAD. 

0955 AM     WATER SPOUT      2 E POMPANO BEACH       26.23N 80.09W  
08/23/2008                   AMZ651             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER  

           TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WATERSPOUT EAST OF POMPANO BEACH 
           VIEWED FROM COPANS ROAD. 

Fay continues its track across Florida and is looking better than ever. Maximum winds are now 65mph with gusts to hurricane strength near Lake Okeechobee reported. The weather is calming down here in southeast Florida but getting more interesting for central Florida where there is currently a Tornado Warning in effect for several counties until 2:15PM.

Live Blog - Good Night

Thanks for reading my blog tonight. Time for bed. Depending on conditions we might try to do this again.

Fay at 11PM

Here is the 11PM summary of Fay:

25.3 / 81.9

Moving north at 9mph.

Pressure 995mb.

Winds at 60mph.

FLL - 20 KTS Last Hour

Fort Lauderdale had the strongest wind last hour with a reading of 22 knots (24mph). Rain has just begun here at the house.

Activity Approaching

Here you can see the feeder bands lining up for the next couple of hours. The official center of the storm is about 50 miles off the coast of Naples. Landfall will be tomorrow morning.

We are less than 30 minutes away from the next advisory and forecast pachage.

Rain is About to Begin Again

After a break from any significant weather radar is indicating that we have some coming ashore. Channel 7 is currently on showing all the people at the beach today.'

Two Tornado Warnings currently in effect, the one for Broward expires in three minutes.

Tornado Warning - Central Collier Conty

Until 10:30pm.

Tornado Warning - South Central Broward County

Tornado Warning until 10:15PM.

Recon Update

Latest message from the recon aircraft:

Location 25.0N/81.9W
Pressure 997mb
Max flight level winds were 58 knots in the southwest quadrant at 9:15PM ET.

Watch Update

SPC states that the severe threat remains for the entire watch area.

STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 837

VALID 190130Z - 190240Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..KERR..08/19/08

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

Currently in Pompano

Pompano Airport at 9PM (actually 8:53PM) had a temperature of 77F, barometer reading of 1010.2 (29.83 inches) and the wind is out of the east at 15mph with a gust of 23 in the past hour.

We are currently cloudy with no rain at the moment.

Waterspout Has Knocked Out Power in Hallendale

Here is the story from the Sun-Sentinel. They report this occured around 5:30PM.

Live Blog - Tropical Storm Fay

I am on the east coast but we are getting a good amount of weather over here. Just had a squall line drop .19 inches of rain since 8:04PM. Currently cloudy outside and radar indicates more rain shortly. Since 7AM we have had 2.33 inches of rain.

I am going to "live blog" for a while so check back for updates.

Tropical Storm Watch Issued

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties. I will have an expected weather break down tonight. Please keep an eye on the Twitter box for quick updates and use today to prepare for the storm.

Morning Models for Fay

There has been a shift to the east of the models this morning towards the east. If this trend continues then southeast Florida could see more of the core of the storm. Also the intensity models are showing a higher confidence that Fay could be a hurricane as it approaches Florida regardless which path she may take.

ALL INTERESTS in southern Florida must pay close attention to Fay.

Next advisory will be at 11am and the highlights will be over on the left side under the Twitter updates.

Stay tuned!

Depression Appears to be Forming

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER
OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

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New Depression or Tropical Storm Tomorrow

Very quick note tonight. The system I have been watching all week and have been predicting to develop appears to be getting better organized and at this rate should be a tropical depression tomorrow morning and a tropical storm by afternoon or early evening. The only thing that could hinder this would be interaction with Puerto Rico.

I will update tomorrow evening at the latest with my prognosis with this storm (Fran) and its possible impacts on south Florida. If you have not yet started to get your emergency supplies please take some time to do that tomorrow.

New Systems in the Atlantic

As we approach the middle of August we are seeing activity ramp up in the Atlantic. The most notable is currently know as 92L. This system has become a bit better organized during the afternoon and evening. If this trend continues then the NHC may send a plane out tomorrow afternoon. Below is the current model map from The Weather Underground.

This is also an area of disturbed area west of this system and an area in the southern Gulf of Mexico. I will continue to watch these areas.

Locally we had almost an inch of rain here at weather central and it appears we may see another round of storms tomorrow afternoon. This was our third afternoon in a row of strong thunderstorms sweeping across the area from the west in the afternoon, today's rainfall was the greatest of the days.

Finally I would like to address a couple of comments about my blog. Some of you have asked why I do not update more frequently or at least on a regular basis. Time is the biggest challenge to posting. I work two jobs and have a great family, all of whom know how much I enjoy studying meteorology and sharing it with others. I do use my Twitter feed for quick and short updates but sometimes there is just not enough time.

I would like to share two blogs that I read on a very regular basis that can fill the gap when I am not around. The first one is from the Weather Underground. Dr. Jeff Master's shares a lot of information and I only wish I could compare this to what he does. The second is a almost daily discussion posted at Crown Weather. Again a very thorough run down of the tropics. Please check them out and bookmark them. You can also find the link on the right side of this page.

Have a good night.

Strong Storms May be Developing Over Southern Florida

From the SPC:


AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091451Z - 091645Z

THE RISK FOR GUSTY AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA
...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE...BETWEEN NOW AND 18-19Z. SOME HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MORNING RAOBS SUGGEST THAT THE VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS...IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. AND...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS...AIDED BY AN AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION IN THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.
WITH 20-25 KT MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST...LIKELY ENHANCING THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR
EASTERN COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MIAMI AND MELBOURNE BECOMES MORE FULLY
MIXED BY 18-19Z. AN OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OUTFLOWS...PROBABLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.
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Tropical Depression 5 Forms

Here is the latest on watches and warnings from the NHC:

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

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Statement from the NHC

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

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Watching Three Areas

Looks like the tropics are starting to become active again with three areas of disturbed weather we are now watching. The first one is around 35W and does not look like it will develop for the next couple of days.

The second is around 55W and is now moving into an ares less conducive for development. This wave could bring some storminess to the northern Leeward Islands in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Finally there is an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico. Pressures are now falling and shear is fairly low. The NHC gives this area a moderate chance of development and they plan on sending a reconnaissance plane into the area later today.

As for south Florida today we are still looking for about a 70% chance of rain. There was a nice thunderstorm offshore Deerfield around 6AM producing some very nice lightning.

Further posts and Twitter updates as we go through today.

Possible Rain on Sunday and Watching the Tropics

Looks like the mostly rain free weekend we had in store may be interrupted by locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms on Sunday. An area of weather to our southeast has been firing up some thunderstorms and this area appears to be heading towards the southeast coast of Florida. Keep an eye on the Twitter feed for the latest.

Tomorrow I will return to discuss the three area of tropical activity we currently have out there.