Funnel Cloud Video

Just posted on youtube.com:

Funnel Cloud East of Deerfield Beach

The above images were taken Sunday June 1, 2008 at 8:05am EDT in Deerfield Beach, Florida. I was approaching SE 10 Street heading north when my wife and I spotted the funnel cloud off to the east. I am estimating that the funnel cloud was in the area of the Deerfield Beach Pier.

I will be posting a video as well that we took.

The Hazardous Weather Outlook this morning did state that there was a high risk of waterspouts so it was not too surprising that the funnel cloud formed, I was just lucky to be in the right place at the right moment to capture it :)

5PM Advisory on Arthur

500 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

....ARTHUR MOVING SLOWLY OVER YUCATAN...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE
AND FOR THE COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE
BORDER WITH BELIZE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...125 KM...NORTHWEST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 195 MILES...315
KM...SOUTHWEST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

ARTHUR IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TOMORROW. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARTHUR COULD EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS MAINLY OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER. ARTHUR IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION TONIGHT...BUT IT COULD THEN REGAIN TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH IF IT EMERGES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

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Tropical Storm Arthur Forms

As of 1PM: POSITION...18.1 N...88.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

Next update at 2PM.
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Update on Disturbed Weather

The latest from the NHC:

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOVED INLAND OVER BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA
OF SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS PRIMARILY OVER THE WATERS NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TO FORM IF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
ON SUNDAY.

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Update from the NHC

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2008

....CORRECT SPELLING OF GUATEMALA...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM ALMA...IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BELIZE. THE LOW IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM IS
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM IF
THE CENTER REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. EVEN IF NO DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. FUTURE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM AS NECESSARY.
FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT STATEMENTS
FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

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Rainy Season has Begun and Tropical News

The 2008 rainy season has officially begun. According the the NWS Miami May 22 was the beginning, two days later than the median start date of May 20. This is generally calculated by using the daily minimum average temperature of the dew point. After three days of a minimum temperature at or above 70F and average dew point at or above 70F the rainy season has begun. We were almost there last week until the previous cold front came through the area drying us out and lowering our low temperatures a bit.

Earlier tonight the NHC issued a special statement about the remnants of Tropical Depression Alma now in the Gulf of Honduras. Current thinking is that this system will not immediately regenerate but will need to be watched since the models indicate that it may become a closed circulation system again. Most of the models do track the system heading back towards the west. Of course check back here for updates.

One last reminder, the 2008 Hurricane Season begins on Sunday.

More updates tomorrow.

Pacific - First Depression of 2008

Just in from the NHC:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012008
800 PM PDT WED MAY 28 2008

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR COSTA RICA...EXPECTED TO BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COSTA RICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
PACIFIC COAST OF NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM PDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...165 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA AND ABOUT
130 MILES...210 KM...SOUTH OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH.  A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND
NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT
APPROACHES THE COAST.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10
TO 15 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...EL
SALVADOR...AND GUATEMALA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF
20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 PM PDT POSITION...10.2 N...86.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/RHOME

Active Weather Day

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch was allowed to expire at 9PM. There were reports of damage from the tri-county area due to today's activity. Flooding in Palm Beach county at one point in Delray Beach at the intersection of Linton Blvd. and Congress Avenue. There was also a tornado warning for Plam Beach county early this evening. Gold ball size hail at I-95 and Delray Beach Blvd.

Hail was also reported in Broward and Miami Dade. Here is a list of today's reports:

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0636 PM TSTM WND GST OPA-LOCKA 25.90N 80.26W
05/24/2008 M45.00 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL ASOS

ASOS AT OPA-LOCKA AIRPORT REPORTED 45 MPH WIND GUST

0641 PM FLOOD DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELRAY BEACH PD REPORTED ROADWAY FLOODING AT THE
INTERSECTION OF LINTON BLVD AND CONGRESS AVE

0641 PM FLOOD DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELRAY BEACH PD REPORTED WATER INTRUDING ON HOMES AT
NASSAU STREET

0730 PM TSTM WND GST DOLPHINS STADIUM 25.95N 80.24W
05/24/2008 M50.00 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

MESONET AT DOLPHIN STADIUM REPORTED 50 MILE AN HOUR WIND
GUST.

0748 PM TSTM WND GST DORAL 25.84N 80.36W
05/24/2008 M51.00 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL MESONET

MESONET AT RONALD REGAN HIGH SCHOOL REPORTED A 51 MPH
WIND GUST

0810 PM FLOOD DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELRAY BEACH PD REPORTED INTERSECTION OF LINTON BLVD AND
CONGRESS AVE IS IMPASSABLE DUE TO FLOODED ROADWAY

0810 PM FLOOD DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 PALM BEACH FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

DELRAY BEACH PD REPORTED WATER CONTINUE TO INTRUDE ON
HOMES AT NASSAU STREET.
0230 PM HAIL 5 SSW KENDALL 25.62N 80.35W
05/24/2008 E0.25 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

REPORTED BY OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE ALONG SOUTH DIXIE
HIGHWAY IN PERRINE.

0232 PM HAIL PERRINE 25.62N 80.34W
05/24/2008 E0.25 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL IN PERRINE NEAR S.
DIXIE HIGHWAY

0240 PM HAIL MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIR 25.80N 80.29W
05/24/2008 E0.25 INCH MIAMI-DADE FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL STATE ROAD 836 AND
87TH AVE

0328 PM TSTM WND GST MIAMI INTERNATIONAL AIR 25.80N 80.29W
05/24/2008 M 49 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL ASOS

MIAMI ASOS REPORTED 49 MPH WIND GUST AT 328PM

0350 PM TSTM WND DMG HOMESTEAD 25.48N 80.47W
05/24/2008 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOMESTEAD PD REPORTED POWER OUTAGE THROUHOUT FLORIDA CITY
AND ALONG 288ST BETWEEN 137 AND 147 AVE

0408 PM HAIL COOPER CITY 26.06N 80.27W
05/24/2008 E0.25 INCH BROWARD FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SKYWARN SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZED HAIL COOPER CITY NEAR
THE INTERSECTION OF FLAMINGO AND GRIFFIN ROAD

0424 PM TSTM WND GST PALM BEACH 26.70N 80.04W
05/24/2008 M 52 MPH PALM BEACH FL ASOS

PBI ASOS REPORTED 52 MPH WIND GUST AT 424PM

0440 PM TSTM WND DMG HOMESTEAD 25.48N 80.47W
05/24/2008 MIAMI-DADE FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

HOMESTEAD PD REPORTED WIND DAMAGE AT 1 SPEEDWAY BLVD

0459 PM HAIL COOPER CITY 26.06N 80.27W
05/24/2008 E0.50 INCH BROWARD FL NWS EMPLOYEE

NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED DIME SIZED HAIL COOPER CITY NEAR
58TH STREET

0503 PM HAIL COOPER CITY 26.06N 80.27W
05/24/2008 E0.88 INCH BROWARD FL PUBLIC

PUBLIC REPORTED HAIL OF NICKEL SIZE.

0542 PM HAIL DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 E1.75 INCH PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AT 542 PM AT 6TH
STREET AND ATLANTIC AVE

0543 PM HAIL DELRAY BEACH 26.46N 80.09W
05/24/2008 E1.75 INCH PALM BEACH FL TRAINED SPOTTER

SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL DELRAY BEACH AT
INTERSTATE 95 AND ATLANTIC AVE

Tomorrow we still expect a cold front to move through to lower of humidity and temperatures just a little bit.

Update

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...

VALID 242220Z - 242315Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346
CONTINUES.

ALTHOUGH STORM COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY DECREASED ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL
AND SRN FL...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS STILL
PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...EVEN IN THE WAKE OF
CONVECTION. STORMS ARE REDEVELOPING ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE WATCH
AREA AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS FINALLY CONVERGED WITH THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. IN GENERAL THESE STORMS WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSE AS EARLIER AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DECREASE.
FARTHER S BETWEEN VRB AND MIA ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MERGER BEFORE THE WLY STEERING FLOW
GRADUALLY BRINGS THE STORMS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS.

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Severe Thunderstorm Watch

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
346 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN SOUTH FLORIDA

BROWARD, COLLIER, GLADES, HENDRY, MAINLAND MONROE, MIAMI-DADE AND
PALM BEACH.

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CLEWISTON...FLAMINGO...
FORT LAUDERDALE...LA BELLE...MIAMI...MOORE HAVEN...
NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH.

HAIL TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE AREAS.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS
IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND
LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS
CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

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Increased Risk of Severe Weather

From the SPC:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0918 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 241418Z - 241515Z

THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL BE UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS IN THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z OUTLOOK WITH MORE DETAILS TO FOLLOW.
ADDITIONALLY...A WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 1630Z.

CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR PULSE SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES ON OBSERVED 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS FL TODAY OF NEAR -8 TO
-10 C WILL COOL FURTHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS DIGS SWD. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE 70S WILL CREATE A MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
OVER MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS GENERALLY WEAK...SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY
ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...WITH
PWAT VALUES CLOSE TO 2 INCHES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. A WW
MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

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More Rain on Saturday

You can not say we do not need it, more rain on Saturday. A few strong to severe storms in the area this afternoon with a couple of reports of hail in Coral Springs. I think we may see the same tomorrow with the NWS forecasting a 60% chance of rain and thunderstorms tomorrow.

Sunday we should see a "cold front" sweep through the area that will bring a few showers with it. For Monday we will have slightly cooler temps and a bit less humidity.

Here is a list of the severe weather reports from today:

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0235 PM TSTM WND GST TAMARAC 26.21N 80.27W
05/23/2008 M59 MPH BROWARD FL BROADCAST MEDIA

WIND GUST OF 59 MPH MEASURED FROM A MESONET STATION AT
NOB HILL AND COMMERCIAL.
0210 PM HAIL CORAL SPRINGS 26.27N 80.27W
05/23/2008 E0.88 INCH BROWARD FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKLE HAIL FALLLING AT INTERSECTION OF WILES AND ROCK
ISLAND ROAD.

0225 PM HAIL CORAL SPRINGS 26.27N 80.27W
05/23/2008 E0.88 INCH BROWARD FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

NICKLE HAIL FELL AT THE INTERSECTION OF WEST ATLANTIC
BLVD AND RIVER SIDE DRIVE. ALSO WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
50 MPH.

0225 PM TSTM WND DMG CORAL SPRINGS 26.27N 80.27W
05/23/2008 BROWARD FL LAW ENFORCEMENT

CANOPY BLOWN OVER AT A PARK IN CORAL SPRINGS AREA.

Have a great night, more tomorrow.

NOAA Issues 2008 Hurricane Season Forecast

NOAA released their forecast for this hurricane season and they are calling for a normal to slightly above normal season. This translates to 12 to 16 named storms, six to nine hurricanes and two to five major hurricanes.

You can find the full report here.

Here you can find the Sun-Sentinel's report, and the Miami Herald's article.

Locally we finally had rain today. When I checked the rain gauge tonight looks like we had about .32 inches of rain which is the most we have had in a single day so far this month. At the same time this broke our string of 93F plus days. Although yesterday we did top out at 96F at PMP.

More tornadoes hit the middle portion of our country today killing one in Colorado. There was a mile-wide tornado that you can read about here. At this time there is still a high risk of tornadoes in western Kansas and a moderate risk surrounding this area. So far today 39 tornadoes have been reported.

The map below will be updated by the SPC through tonight for storm event counts and locations.

Another Hot Day

Pompano hit 94F today while FLL hit 97F. There were a few strong storms over northern Palm Beach county and at this time all the activity has faded. Along with the heat we also had gusty conditions with observations this afternoon. Pompano had winds between 15 and 20 MPH with a few gusts about 35 MPH.

Just checked the METARs from PMP today and it actually looks like the high will officially be 95F, we will see in the morning.

Looks like one more very warm day and then we should moderate a little and with a slight chance of rain between now and Saturday.

Have a great night and drink plenty of liquids.

Still Very Warm

Not quite baking yet here in Pompano. At 3PM it was 88F, down 2 degrees from last hour. With the winds currently from the SSE instead of the expected SW we "moderated" a little bit. Looking at the other observations in the area such as FLL at 93F with winds from the WNW and FXE at 91F with winds from the WSW I see no reason for us to cool down any further.

At least the smoke smell in the air from the Everglades fires has diminished. Though we will likely have the smell around again in the morning.

Also looking at the calender, tomorrow will mark two weeks before the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I will be posting more about the season as we countdown the days.

Finally keep an eye on my Twitter for the latest in the area weather and other odds and ends from time-to-time.

Lake Okeechobee Drops Again

The latest from the lake, not surprising since there really has been no rain in the area.

LAKE OKEECHOBEE

12 midnight avg lake lvl 9.88 -0.05

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Sunday was Hot

Just looking at the high/low reports from yesterday and even by Florida standards it was hot! Here is the reports from the airports:

AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS HIGH LOW PCPN   FORT LAUDERDALE INTL :FLL 96 79 0.01  FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC :FXE 96 77 0.00  MIAMI INTERNATIONAL :MIA 96 79 0.00  NAPLES MUNICIPAL AIRPORT :APF 86 79 T  OPA LOCKA AIRPORT :OPF 93 77 0.07  PEMBROKE PINES :HWO 95 77 T  POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT :PMP 95 78 0.00  WEST KENDALL/TAMIAMI AP :TMB 95 75 0.00  WEST PALM BEACH :PBI 94 76 0.24   

(Hopefully that comes out readable.)


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Record High Saturday at FLL

   ..RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE   A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT FORT LAUDERDALE YESTERDAY.  THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1967.     
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Home Station Down

The home station has not reported data for a couple hours so it is down for the time being. I will get it back in service as soon as I can.

Thanks for all the emails informing me of this :)
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Warm Weekend Ahead

It will feel like summer this weekend with highs around 90. The humidity will return starting tomorrow as the winds begin to shift. Along with the wind shift we will see an ever so slight increase in the chance of rain but I am not expecting anything wide spread through Monday.

A follow up from last night's post. This afternoon CNN began to report that there could more than 100000 deaths in Myanmar due to last weekend's cyclone. You can read more about the storm and the recovery efforts here at CNN.com.

For those who would like to help out financially you can go to Google's home page to donate to UNICEF or follow my link.

Possibly 50000 Killed in Burma

When Cyclone Nargis hit Burma on Saturday it caused extensive damage to the area and some reports have the death toll climbing to a possible 50000. Some areas had as much as two days notice but the magnitude of the storm may not have been understood by those who live there.

Winds exceeded 120mph leaving structures stripped to frames or less. Cyclone Nargis has had the largest death toll of a natural event since the tsunami of 2004 on Boxing Day killed an estimated 31000 in Sri Lanka.

Here is a great article from the BBC covering the cyclone:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7384041.stm

Special Weather Statment

900 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2008

THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS FROM THE PUBLIC AND MEDIA REGARDING HAZY
CONDITIONS AND SMOKE ACROSS A FEW PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THIS MORNING. SEVERAL FACTORS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THESE
CONDITIONS. ONE IS A VERY STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE THAT IS NOT
ALLOWING ANY MIXING TO OCCUR. ANOTHER IS THAT SEVERAL LARGE FIRES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WERE OCCURRING OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...IN CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY AND IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA.
THERE WAS ALSO SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE EASTERN METRO AREAS THIS
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY STABLE LOCAL
ATMOSPHERE...LINGERING FOG AND SMOKE AND A LIGHT WESTERLY WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION HAS CREATED HAZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THE DAY TIME HEATING WILL
HELP TO DISSIPATE THE FOG...PROMOTE GREATER VERTICAL MIXING AND HELP
DILUTE THE HAZY CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND THIS ALSO WILL HELP TO DILUTE
THE HAZE AS FRESHER AIR WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

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Test Post

Sorry about the test post, just checking to see if it is working.
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A Few Strong Thunderstorms this Afternoon

Looks like the east coast this afternoon may see some strong thunderstorms develop. The main threats are high winds and small hail.

Before any activity begins to develop we will have a very nice morning with mostly clear skies. This morning we do have dewpoints in the low 70s so there is a good amount of moisture in the lower atmosphere which could aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms later.

More as we go into the afternoon.

Warm-Up Begins

What a beautiful treat we have had for the past few days. Since the front came through on Sunday the humidity has dropped along with the temperature. This is not normal for April but not unheard of.

This morning's low was 51F at PMP after a high on Tuesday of 68F. The rest of the southeast coast was also in the 50s.

Tonight will be 10+ degrees warmer and we will surly feel the warmth begin tomorrow and gradually get warmer for the weekend. Shower chances will return Friday but nothing widespread through Saturday.

You will also notice a couple of things on the blog. The weather server is down again, it is recording data from the home station but will not communicate with the internet. I will hopefully have sometime this weekend to work on it. This is also the server that emails me all the weather data from the NWS. Thankfully there should not see any extreme weather for the next few days.

Also on the blog I have added my Twitter feed. From there you can also find links to "follow me."

Have a nice night.

Hot Sunday, Cool Monday through Wednesday

An extreme in temperatures is in store for us during the next few days. Sunday we should have a high in the afternoon near 90F. Then a front will approach the area and cloud up with a few showers around by late afternoon.

Early tomorrow evening the front should push through and bring our winds from the north or northwest. This will usher win cooler and dryer air. Lows Monday morning will be around 57F, highs in the lower 70s.

Then Tuesday will be the coolest of the week/month and probably for a while. Lows Tuesday morning I am forecasting at 51F and a high of 71F. This is unseasonably cool for April. We could be near record lows for Tuesday, let's see how close we are.

Wednesday will still be below normal temperature wise but the warming trend will begin.

Enjoy the refreshing weather.

Active Weather This Morning and Tonight

Overnight we had a strong line of showers and thunderstorms move through the area. A little after 4am Pompano Airport recorded a wind gust of 48mph and here at weather central we recorded a wind gust of 26mph. This was followed by the power going out and the computer that records and uploads the information to wunderground to fail :( Do not know when I will or if I can get that machine back up but I will keep you posted.

Though we did not see the rain this afternoon as forecasted we did see it tonight. We did have a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for eastern Broward but that was canceled early. Currently there is some great lightning and rumbles of thunder.

There is another line of thunderstorms behind the one that just swept through which will bring more rain but probably will not be severe. Keep those weather radios on tonight!

Hot Sunday Coming Up

After a rainy afternoon in northeast Broward the skies have cleared and we are looking at a very nice but warm/hot weekend. We had over an inch of rain here and this heavy rain prompted an Urban Flood Advisory.

Highs this weekend will be upper 80s tomorrow and lower 90s on Sunday which will be the warmest weather so far this year and possible record highs for the day.

Also there appears to have been a tornado to touch down in Atlanta tonight. You can find live reports at www.cnn.com especially since CNN did have some windows blow out due to the storm.

Heaviest Rain Offshore

The bulk of the activity is now offshore. This morning we had .26 inches of rain, mostly between 6 and 7am. No severe weather was noted in the area though a Special Marine Warning was issued for the near shore waters and that expired at 7:30am.

For the remainder of the day we will see skies clear slowly with a very slight chance of more rain. Breezy with highs around 78F.

Slight Chance of Severe Weather After Midnight

According to the SPC there is a slight chance of severe weather over Broward and Palm Beach counties through 7am. Currently Palm Beach county is in a Tornado Watch. The line of thunderstorms is weakening slightly and should not be as severe as it has been through the rest of the state by the time it gets here. I am expecting some isolated severe weather though.

So far today there have been 15 reported tornadoes over northern Florida and southeastern Georgia. Two were killed by the tornadoes in Columbia county and one injured in Leon county.

Keep the weather radio on overnight and look for a recap in the morning.

Also there weather Twitter will be on in case of interesting weather.

Update

Just a quick update to the blog. Added a chat option and voice call option. Feel free to try them out and let me know what you think.

Also for those of you who emailed me about the wind data, it is now updating!!

More later,
howpomp

Funnel Cloud this Morning

On my way out to check on the campus this morning I spotted and called in (under the Skywarn program) a funnel cloud off the coast of Boca Raton around 9:25am. It did not touch the surface and lasted about 3 minutes. I was not the first to call it in but it did help the NWS issue the following Marine Weather Statement:

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
931 AM EST THU FEB 21 2008

AMZ650-211500-
931 AM EST THU FEB 21 2008
 
..MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM EST

FOR THE FOLLOWING AREA...
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH FL OUT 20 NM

AT 928 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SHOWER...PRODUCING WINDS OF UP TO 30 KNOTS ABOUT 2 NM EAST OF BOCA
RATON....MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 KNOTS.

THE PUBLIC REPORTED SEEING A FUNNEL CLOUD WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. REMAIN ON THE ALERT IN
CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT.

We do have a nice weekend in store with a few showers and a chance of a
thunderstorm.  Highs will continue to be above normal in the low 80s.

As we go into next week there is a good chance that a strong cold front
will come through the area.  The front could bring some strong weather and a
very noticeable cool down.  Check back through the weekend as this possible weather
event begins to unfold.

Warmer tha Usual

Beautiful weekend going on in south Florida with higher than normal temperatures and rain free. As we go into Sunday and Monday we will see an increase in shower activity, especially Monday as a cold front approaches the area followed by a cool down. Tuesday we will see highs in the mid 70s and lows in the lower 60s which is about 10 degrees warmer than we have had.

Also an note about the observations you see here on the blog and on www.wunderground.com the wind instruments have been moved and secured a bit better in hopes of having better wind information. The only draw back to the relocation was that the instruments were lowered about a foot. I will monitor over th next week to see if the data quality improves or not.

Have a great night.

Two Confirmed Tornadoes in Broward

There were two tornadoes that touched down in Ft. Lauderdale last night which spawned a Tornado Warning for our area. No injuries and both were EF-0 in intensity.

It was very different to have such a warm wind blowing with the rain and lightning around. Overall we had 1.98 inches of rain yesterday and over an inch today with the frontal passage.

The weather will be tranquil tomorrow and we should some showers as we go into the weekend. Another front will sweep through on Monday.

Severe Weather Potential

SPC has now stated that the potential for severe weather over southeast Florida will increase today and into tonight. In their words:

POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE.
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PENINSULA FOR LATE TONIGHT...WHEN/WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
SHOW GREATEST THREAT OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

Possible Rough Weather Ahead

Looks as if we will have some strong to severe weather coming in tomorrow and Wednesday. This is associated with a warm front moving north over the area tomorrow while an impulse from the Gulf of Mexico moves towards the east. Upper level winds, at this time, look to be conducive for thunderstorms, possible super cells and isolated tornadoes.

Then on Wednesday as a cold front sweeps through models are indicating that a squall line may develop and with the timing with the heating of the day we may again see severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting that southeast Florida, specifically south of Palm Beach could see the strongest activity with the interaction of the squall line with the sea breeze front.

Here is part of the Hazardous Weather Outlook from this evening:

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY 

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK: A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH  
FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE  
AREA. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES, ALONG WITH GUSTY  
WINDS. 

ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
IMPACT THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF AND ALONG A COLD FRONT  
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS  
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE  
DAMAGING WINDS. 

THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST, BUT RESIDENTS AND  
VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES ON  
THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS SEVERE WEATHER COULD AFFECT THE  
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 

Please keep updated on the conditions tomorrow and Wednesday.

Possible Strong/Severe Storms Tuesday Night

After a long delay I am back to updating the blog so thanks for coming back and looking. This will be a quick update to mention some interesting weather associated with a cold front that could occur Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Models have been indicating this possibility for the past 36 hours and the SPC has put us in the "Slight" category for the Day 3 Outlook.

Check back tomorrow for further information.

Dense Fog Advisory

Until 4 am for most of south Florida.

Cool and Damp Morning

Waking up to 58F and light showers.

This is also a test message.

Yes it Did Snow in Florida this Morning

We had a low of 37F this morning as the cold air took hold of the state. There was snowfall in the Daytona Beach area due to the expected shift in winds from the northeast.

Here is the temperature table for south Florida this morning:

:                                  HIGH    LOW     PCPN
:
:APALACHICOLA             :AAF      46 /    26 /   0.00
:BROOKSVILLE              :BKV      52 /    26 /   0.00
:CRESTVIEW                :CEW      46 /    21 /   0.00
:CROSS CITY               :CTY      48 /    19 /   0.00
:DAYTONA BEACH            :DAB      52 /    32 /     T
:DESTIN                   :DTS      45 /    25 /   0.00
:FORT LAUDERDALE INTL     :FLL      57 /    39 /     T
:FORT LAUDERDALE EXEC     :FXE      56 /    37 /     T
:FORT MYERS               :FMY      59 /    32 /   0.00
:FORT MYERS / SW REG AP   :RSW      57 /    30 /   0.00
:FORT PIERCE              :FPR      57 /    34 /     T
:GAINESVILLE              :GNV      47 /    22 /   0.00
:JACKSONVILLE             :JAX      43 /    25 /   0.00
:KEY WEST                 :EYW      61 /    45 /   0.00
:LEESBURG                 :LEE      52 /    30 /   0.00
:MARATHON                 :MTH      63 /    43 /   0.00
:MARIANNA                 :MAI      44 /    22 /   0.00
:MELBOURNE                :MLB      57 /    34 /     T
:MIAMI                    :MIA      60 /    39 /   0.00
:NAPLES                   :APF      61 /    34 /     T
:OPA LOCKA                :OPF      59 /    37 /     T
:ORLANDO INTL             :MCO      54 /    31 /   0.00
:ORLANDO EXEC             :ORL      53 /    31 /   0.00
:PANAMA CITY              :PFN      47 /    25 /   0.00
:PEMBROKE PINES           :HWO      57 /    37 /     T
:PENSACOLA                :PNS      45 /    23 /   0.00
:POMPANO BEACH            :PMP      61 /    37 /     T
:PUNTA GORDA              :PGD      58 /    30 /   0.00
:SANFORD                  :SFB      53 /    32 /   0.00
:SARASOTA / BRADENTON     :SRQ      56 /    32 /   0.00
:ST. PETERSBURG           :SPG      53 /    34 /   0.00
:ST. PETERSBURG/CLEARWATER:PIE      53 /    31 /   0.00
:TALLAHASSEE              :TLH      46 /    25 /   0.00
:TAMPA                    :TPA      54 /    29 /   0.00
:VERO BEACH               :VRB      57 /    33 /   0.01
:WINTER HAVEN             :GIF      53 /    29 /   0.00
:W KENDALL TAMIAMI AP     :TMB      60 /    35 /   0.00
:WEST PALM BEACH          :PBI      60 /    35 /     T

And here are a couple articles about today's snow and cold effects:

Snow in Florida
Freezing Lizards

Finally, here is the statement and LSR from NWS Melbourne about the snow:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
815 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008

FLZ047-054-059-064-141-147-031500-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY-SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE-
815 AM EST THU JAN 3 2008

...FLURRIES OCCURRING ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...

THE COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE PRODUCING OCEAN EFFECT SNOW FLURRIES OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST. FLURRIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED IN
VOLUSIA COUNTY NEAR HOLLY HILL AND ORMOND BEACH...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL FLURRIES EXISTS FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
INDIAN RIVER...ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES AS RADAR ECHOES APPROACH
THE COAST. THESE FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE LATE MORNING BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. NO ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. THE LAST TIME FLURRIES WERE REPORTED IN EAST CENTRAL

________________________________________________________________________

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1009 AM EST THU JAN 03 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
           ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     SNOW             DAYTONA BEACH           29.21N 81.03W
01/03/2008  E0.0 INCH        VOLUSIA            FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

           SNOW FLURRIES REPORTED FROM PORT ORANGE NORTH TO DAYTONA
           BEACH AND ORMOND BEACH. SEVERAL REPORTS RECEIVED OF
           FLURRIES STARTING APPROXIMATELY 730 AM IN ORMOND BEACH
           AND STILL BEING OCCURRING AS OF 0905 AM IN PORT ORANGE.
           REPORTS RECEIVED FROM OBSERVER...SPOTTERS AND VIA NEWS
           CHANNEL 13.

0730 AM     SNOW             DAYTONA BEACH           29.21N 81.03W
01/03/2008  E0.0 INCH        VOLUSIA            FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

           SEVERAL REPORTS OF SNOW FLURRIES FROM ORMOND BEACH TO
           DAYTONA BEACH AND PORT ORANGE. FIRST FLURRY REPORTS AT
           APPROXIMATELY 730 AM IN ORMOND BEACH AND STILL OCCURRING
           AS OF 905 AM IN PORT ORANGE. SNOW FLURRY REPORTS WERE
           RECEIVED FROM DAYTONA BEACH OBSERVER...SPOTTERS AND VIA
           NEWS CHANNEL 13.

0900 AM     SNOW             2 NNW SCOTTSMOOR        28.79N 80.89W
01/03/2008  E0.0 INCH        VOLUSIA            FL   CO-OP OBSERVER

           SNOW FLURRIES REPORTED AT APPROXIMATELY 9 AM IN NORTHERN
           BREVARD COUNTY NEAR THE TOWN OF SCOTTSMOOR.

0930 AM     SNOW             SHARPES                 28.43N 80.77W
01/03/2008  E0.0 INCH        BREVARD            FL   PUBLIC

           SNOW FLURRIES REPORTED NORTH OF COCOA IN SHARPES AT
           APPROXIMATELY 930 AM.

FLORIDA WAS JANUARY 24TH IN 2003.

Happy New Years and It Will be Cold

By now you know it is cold. Currently 42F in Pompano and 45F here at weather central. My forecast low for the airport (PMP) is 36F and there will be patchy frost around.

Interesting discussion from the NWS in Miami. In the past 40 years or so there have only been two other occasions where there has been such a thick layer of cold here at the bottom of the atmosphere in south Florida. The great freeze of 1977 and in 1989. Pretty interesting since that was the year it snowed in Miami/Pompano Beach (1977) and 1989 was the last time there was any mention of flurries in south Florida which did not occur.

Stay warm and I will be back tomorrow with a recap of the cold.

Cooling Off

The cold front came through today with no real impact. Some rain and wind but nothing severe. This will be the first of two cool nights so there will be plenty to enjoy.

Cold Front Approaching

Going to bed in a minute so a very quick update. Cold front is moving across the state and a tornado watch is in effect for parts north of Orlando.

Will do quick updates on Twitter tomorrow with a more complete update tomorrow night.

Olga Now an Open Wave

As of 10PM Olga is now an open wave. This should now conclude the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season. I will put out a recap in the over the weekend. Just for fun though here is one last model map for Olga.

The weekend's weather is looking very interesting at this point. Tomorrow and Friday we will see an increase in moisture due to an inverted trough associated with Olga coming over us. This will be followed by a fairly strong cold front brining the coldest weather so far in December for south Florida. Lows on Sunday and Monday night I am forecasting to be in the upper 50s.

Tomorrow I will post on the chances for some stronger weather in connection with the cold front on Saturday/Sunday.

Olga is Weakening and Possible Interesting Weather

Olga is looking pretty weak right now and may be downgraded later today. Also looking like we may coold down on Sunday but not before some interesting Weather sweeps across on Saturday. I will have more pneumonia both of these topics later today. Stay tuned.

Olga Now a Tropical Storm and an Interesting Model Map

A recon aircraft checked out Olga this evening and found that she has acquired tropical characteristics with winds of 60 MPH.

I posted tonight's model map to watch the evolution of the track of Olga. The dynamical models continue with the west to WSW path while the other models now indicate a gradual recurvature. Though the official forecast still indicates weakening it would not be impossible for Olga to get caught up in a frontal passage this weekend and track towards the northeast.

It is too early to count Florida out of this equation so check back tomorrow for more updates.

Make that Subtropical Storm Olga

At 10PM located at 18.5N and 65.3W which is about 55 miles east of San Juan. Olga is moving towards the west at 15mph with maximum winds of 40mph. Minimum pressure is estimated at 1006mb.

The future track of Olga is generally west then WSW over Haiti, there will not be much a chance to strengthen.

I will update more in the morning or sooner if there is anything else to add.

Have a great night.

Olga is Born

Tropical storm Olga will be announce later this evening. This is the first December named storm since 2005 when we had Epsilon that carried over from November and Zeta. More details to follow.

Not Over Yet

Ok, for the past two weeks I have been meaning to sit down and write one last blog for the 2007 season. Not so quick I guess since for the past 24 hours I have been watching a very interesting area of weather near the Virgin Islands.

The NHC is issuing statements and the latest satellite imagery is showing the low-level center coming closer to the convection. I would even say it is starting to wrap a little.

We will have to wait a couple more hours tonight to see if the NHC agrees.

Stay tuned, it is not over yet.

Cool Down Coming

We have another cold front that will be moving through the area late tomorrow into Friday morning. This front will give us lows into the upper 50s and highs in the mid 70s through Saturday. So a very refreshing couple of days ahead of us.

A few waterspouts were offshore late this morning into the early afternoon. Here is an article from the Sun-Sentinel.

Finally tonight I added a weather sticker to the blog here. This is information from the home weather station and is updated about once every ten minutes. You can click the sticker to get more detailed information and past data.

Have a great night!

Noel Moving Erratically

As of 11PM Noel is still over Cuba and has slowed down to almost a crawl. Over the past couple of hours Noel has been moving erratically but an overall average motion is towards the NW near 5 mph. At this time it seems the westward motion has ended.

With this current motion and the jet stream preparing to dip into the Gulf of Mexico this should end Noel's westward march and allow the storm to be picked up and taken out to see. For this reason I am forecasting Noel not to come ashore in Florida. The main impacts from Noel should be coastal flooding, windy conditions and very quick moving scattered showers on Halloween. At this moment I do not think that Halloween will be a washout :) But it will be windy.

Since the storm is still to our south we must continue to watch Noel and make sure the forecast verifies, so please check back here and at twitter.com/howpomp

Also for those of you wondering about school on Wednesday, at this time all school systems will be open.

Have a nice night.

No Watches Yet

At 11PM Noel was located at 21.2/75.0 moving NW near 13 mph. Max winds are 50mph with a minimum pressure of 1000mb.

Tropical storm watch could be issued tomorrow morning depending how Noel behaves overnight.

Currently there is about a 30% chance of tropical storm force winds to affect southeast Florida.

There have been no dramatic changes in any of the available models so as I go to bed tonight my previous forecast stands. In the morning there may be some adjusting of this though.

Have a good night.

Latest Models

Here is the latest model plat from the SFWMD. As you can see the is good agreement about Noel approaching Florida, how close? Based on the available data we will see Noel come within 30 miles of the coast before turning away. This is certainly close enough to bring tropical storm force winds over the tri-county area. As I get more data I will post it here.

Twitter Activated

During the threat of Noel I will be posting quick messages on Twitter. You can find the posts at

http://twitter.com/howpomp

From the page you can sign up to receive updates via email or text message.

Possible Tropical Storm Watches for south Florida

This is the first of a couple of updates for tonight and tropical storm Noel. In the 8PM advisory the NHC mentioned that tropical storm watches may be required for southeast Florida. The trend over the past six hours is that Noel may become a bigger threat than previously stated. During the next hour new model data will become available and I will expand from there.

Please stay tuned.

Noel and this Week

TD16 was upgraded to Tropical storm Noel this afternoon in a special advisory at 2PM. Currently winds are up to 60mph as the system moves NNW at 4mph. Minimum pressure is estimated at 996mb.

The future of the storm is very uncertain. There are two main possibilities. The first follows the official forecast and brings the storm through the Bahamas out into the open Atlantic. The second possibility is that Noel meanders around Cuba for the next five days.

There will be a recon flight reaching Noel around 2am and hopefully the overnight model runs may bring some clarity to the eventual track of Noel.

Guess we will see you tomorrow.

Updated Local Forecast

Tropical storm conditions are now forecasted for the area Wednesday night and Thursday. Much more tomorrow as this system evolves.

Tropical Depression #16

TD16 will be announce at 11PM tonight. This is the system south of the Dominican Republic and the one that brought the rain to Puerto Rico Thursday and Friday. It is a bit early to relay on the longer term output of the models but there is a trend starting to bring this storm towards the northwest then north, then possible northeast. This system could affect the Bahamas and/or south Florida the middle to late this coming week. I would not be surprised if we are in the cone by tonight or tomorrow.

Though we are late in the season, we are still in the season so please remain prepared and check for further updates.

This Morning's Rain

This morning for the 7am report to CoCoRaHS we reported 3.72 inches of rain. Most of that came between 2:30am and 6am. It did start to rain around 10pm last night and we had at least two thunderstorms pass through, the first of which was about 2:30am. Road were slightly flooded at 6:45 am but rain drained pretty well.

It is late now but I will be back in the morning for an update on the tropics.

Thursday Severe Weather

Just a quick recap from yesterday's severe weather, 29 tornadoes, 93 hail reports and 167 wind reports. One of the tornadoes was in Pensacola and one of the wind reports were from Brevard county. Near Rockledge an USAF wind tower recorded a 51kt (59mph) wind gust. Here is a map from the SPC showing where the reports came from.

Flood Watch until 6am for Palm Beach County

As mentioned before, Flood watch until 6am and an Urban Flood Advisory for Palm Beach county. Some areas have seen more than two inches of rain tonight with more to come.

More details in the morning.

Flood Watch for Palm Beach County

Flood Watch will be issued shortly for continuing showers over eastern portions of Palm Beach county. A low pressure system has formed off the coast of northern Broward county and is causing the shower activity going on now.

Note that the rainfall total from the weather station might be off a bit, there was no data coming in for the first hour of rain we had. Since then data has resumed and currently we are reading .75 inches for the night. I will report in the morning what is in the manual gauge.

Stay dry ;-)

Rainy Weekend?

TD 15 weakened to an open wave this afternoon and is nearly dissipated. Not much left to talk about on this one.

I think we might see more rain than we expected this weekend. There is a large area of showers to our south over Cuba and extending to Mexico. The cold front I mentioned yesterday is not really visible on satellite and there is some dryer air over central and northern Florida. I do expect a fairly strong easterly breeze over the weekend and think this is what we will need to generate some rain over the weekend. Not a wash out, but most of us will see some rain from time to time.

TD 15

TD 15 formed late this afternoon in the open Atlantic. The official forecast does not call for this system to last very long not strengthen, and I would have to agree with this.

For those of us in Florida it looks like we will have a "cold front " pass over us tomorrow. It really will not have a big effect on us and will probably stall to our south. Breezy conditions will exist due to high pressure building in, so not a bad weekend weather wise coming up.

Rain and a bit More Rain

After being in a Flood Watch for most of the day we have seen the rain abate a bit tonight. Looks like tonight will not be as rainy as we have seen over the past two nights.

The mass of clouds to our east has been labeled system 90L. This area of disturbed weather will likely become our next depression once it crosses the state and emerges in the Gulf of Mexico.

Flood Watch has just been extended until 10am on Tuesday for the tri-county area.

Home weather station went down just after 12 noon due to a power outage so I do not have an accurate rainfall total for today. Try again tomorrow.

Stay dry!

Gabrielle Heading Back Into the Atlantic

As of 11pm all watches and warnings are discontinued for the US. No major damage reported at this time, so on to the rest of the tropics.

There are now three areas to watch as we head into the new week. The most interesting one is well east of Puerto Rico. Some of the models develop and bring this system into the Bahamas later this week. I will be watching this closely so check back tomorrow for an update (or two).

The next area is in the Gulf of Mexico and if this system were to develop it would probably head into Texas. The other area is in the central Atlantic and poses no immediate threat to land.

Subtropical Storm Gabrielle

Slight correction to the previous post. The system is not TD7 but Subtropical Storm Gabrielle with winds of 45mph and a pressure of 1011mb. Tropical storm watches are now issued for portions of the coasts of North and South Carolina.

TD7 Forms

After almost five days of expected development, the area of disturbed weather that has been meandering in the western Atlantic has now been upgraded to tropical depression #7. This will be announced at 11PM for its first advisory.

Tropical storm watches will be issued for areas of the mid-Atlantic coast.

Here is the latest IR image.

Felix Images and Models

As category five hurricane Felix continues to move east near 18mph the storm continues its symmetrical presentation on satellite as seen below, a classic hurricane.



At this point Felix will have fluctuations in intensity, as all major hurricanes do, caused by eye wall replacement cycles. These cycles are not really predictable but are signaled usually by concentric eye walls, with the inner one "collapsing" and the outer wall taking over. As the new eye starts to contract that is when you will see a decrease in barometric pressure followed by an increase in wind speed. Below is the latest graph on what the intensity models are predicting. (Graphic from University of Colorado)


As far as the future path, models are very consistent for the next three days but after that there is a pretty good spread. Tomorrow we will look at the later forecast in greater detail. Below is the latest track guidance from the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD).


One other area of interest is the system called 98L. Though thunderstorm activity is very minimal there is a distinct low center. If this holds together for another couple of days this could become our next depression as environmental condition may improve for development.

No More Recon Data Tonight

There will be no more data tonight from the recon plane since it aborted its mission due to severe turbulence and grouple (ice chunks). I will still have another update in about an hour or so.

Felix Now a Category 5 Storm

At 8PM the NHC issued a special advisory to update the location and intensity of Felix. Winds are now 165mph and the pressure is 934mb. That is a 59mb drop in 21 hours, 46mb in the last 9 hours. This makes Felix the second category five storm this season.

I will have another update when the next recon report comes out.

Felix Image

Not much new in the 11PM advisory. Pressure is 993mb and maximum winds are estimated at 75mph but may be higher. The next recon trip will confirm this. Here is the latest IR image of Felix from 10:15pm tonight.

Hurricane Felix

Tonight at the 8PM advisory the NHC upgraded Felix to a hurricane. Track models are unanimous in taking Felix towards the west and into the Yucatan Peninsula. Intensity models are all over the place. The GFNI and HWFI weaken the storm to a minimal tropical storm over the next few days while the LGEM and SHIPS takes it a mjor hurricane in three days.

Conditions appear very favorable for strengthening and the official forecast brings Felix up to a major hurricane in four days. Some of the last visible images indicated that an eye feature was becoming present.

Elsewhere there is another system I am watching in the mid-Atlantic. This system was looking better this afternoon but the latest IR images are not very impressive so we will see what happens overnight.

Tropical Depression #6

A quick post and I will be back in the morning. TD6 formed late this afternoon east of the Windward Islands. Official forecast has the storm moving generally towards the west for the next five days. This is somewhat on the same path as Dean. TD6 should be upgraded tomorrow to Tropical Storm Felix tomorrow.

Almost all the models depict the same path, but one model to keep an eye on is the HWRF which stalls the storm south of Cuba in four days. We will see what the next run generates and go from there.

Be back in September! (Amazing how fast August past us by.)

Dean Goes South of Jamaica

Jamaica is spared the worst of Dean but is certainly lashing out at the island. At this time Dean is speeding away from the island about 20mph. The latest data from the recon plane indicates the pressure is at 926mb and the highest winds found at this time are 143mph at flight level so that would translate to about 120mph at the surface. Of course that is just a sample of what the aircraft can measure. When the National Hurricane Center announce the wind speed for any storm that also take into account satellite images and surface readings and they come up with the maximum winds for a storm. I would expect the winds to be maintained at 145mph for the 11pm advisory.

Due to work I will not be able to post again until tomorrow night. More then...

Dean from San Juan Radar

Here is Dean from the San Juan radar at 11:18pm EDT.

Category Four Dean

Dean is now a category four hurricane. At 9:30pm tonight the NHC issued a special statement announcing the the recon plane out there now had measured winds estimated at the surface of 145mph. This measurement was used for the 11pm advisory.

The pressure has dropped about 25mb over the past six hours as well as the wind radii expanding in all quadrants.

Jamaica is the next land mass in the forecast track. The official forecast maintains category four status. As far as US landfall it is too early to tell, but at this time there are no expectations of any direct impact from Dean on Florida.

Could South Florida be in the Clear?

At this point it looks like it. The models have been extremely consistent and very agreeable with one another on Dean. Usually over a 24 hour period at least one of the major models will give some doubt to the others but in this case this has not happened. The GFDL did have a run that brought the center out of the consensus but it came back in line on the next run.

So we should see a category two hurricane strike the Lesser Antilles tonight and tomorrow and a category four hurricane near Jamaica on Sunday.

Please remember anytime we have a storm to our east and/or south we must always keep an eye on it. Actually that goes for any storm out there.

Dean is Intensifying

As of 5PM Dean's winds have increased to 65mph and looks as if it is well on its way to become a hurricane by tomorrow. It has trended more to the WNW this afternoon and I will have a further discussion tonight after the 11PM advisory.

Images from Tonight

Here are the latest images of Dean and TD5.

TD5 To Be Announced at 11PM, Dean Update

The NHC will upgrade the system in the Gulf of Mexico to TD5 at 11PM. This should become tropical storm Erin tomorrow. This will pose a threat to southern Texas over the next 72 hours.

Meanwhile tropical storm Dean did not look impressive at all this afternoon may be getting its act together and I am expecting Dean to strengthen overnight and throughout tomorrow. This is also supported by the models. In fact the HWFI takes it to a category five storm in five days.

I am posting this now and will get a couple pictures up in a few minutes.

Tropics Are Now Acting Up

There are two items I am watching at this time. The first is TD4 which formed this morning in the eastern Atlantic. Models are insisting that this system will continue to strengthen and become a hurricane by the end of the week. This system will bar watching as it continues to move mostly in a westward direction. At 11PM TD4 was at 12.0N, 35.0W, winds at 35mph and minimum pressure is at 1005mb. The NHC stated that there has not been much change in organization tonight.

Another area I am watching is in the southern Gulf of Mexico. This area looks like it is becoming organized and could be a depression by tomorrow if this trend continues. Current models take this system into southern Texas or northern Mexico.

Check back tomorrow for further updates, especially on Dean.

NOAA Lowers Forecast for 2007 Hurricane Season

Today NOAA issued their forecast for the remainder of this hurricane season and they have lowered the storm count to 13 to 16 named storms from the initial forecast of 13 to 17 storms.

Not much of a change but if this or Dr. Gray's forecasts were to materialize we are looking at a very busy second half of the season.

Here is a link to the story from the Sun-Sentinel about the new forecast. And here is the official statement from NOAA.

Let's keep in mind that these forecasts are still calling for an above normal active season.

Hot is South Florida/Tropical Update

This weekend south Florida has been under a dome of high pressure that has dried out our air and minimize any normal land/sea breezes that normally form. Today Miami had a record high of 97F and it looks like Pompano topped out at 93F. This mixed with our humidity has given us heat index value between 101F and 107F. Though low 90s is not unusual for the area but anything in the mid and upper 90s is unusual.

Tropics remain somewhat quiet, a couple things I am watching out there but nothing to mention at this moment.

As I stated in my previous post Dr. Gray has reduced his prediction of storms slightly. Here is a link to a story about his new report from the Palm Beach Post.

Dr. Gray Updated Forecast

Dr. Gray will issue an updated forecast tomorrow. According to news reports the new numbers will be revised slightly downward with a total of 15 names storms. That is from 17 his team predicted early this season. More on this tomorrow.

I may also need to look at the Caribbean system again, some data suggests that the area that it is headed into may not be as hostile as I first thought. We will look at this again in the morning.

Tropics Not Very Active

The two tropical waves I have been watching are not growing and are becoming less of a concern. The wave west of the Windward Islands has lost most of its deep convection that it had this morning and is moving into an area less favorable for development. A reconnaissance plane this afternoon did not find a closed circulation so we should not have to worry about this one.

The area of cloudiness in the Gulf of Mexico has not become any better organized and the cloud pattern is not impressive at this time. I will continue to monitor for any flare-ups from both systems.

Also wanted to take a moment to wish Kalie a very happy fifth birthday on Friday!!!

Chantel Becoming Extratropical, The Other Disturbance

Chantel was upgraded to a tropical storm this morning and tonight is becoming extratropical over the open north Atlantic waters. The 11pm advisory is the last advisory issued by them. That was quick.

About 500 miles east of the Windward islands is an area of concern, though nothing immediate for south Florida. This system is moving into an area the appears to favor development, so I will continue to watch it. Models are forecasting this to develop and head towards the west, well south of Florida. Here is an IR image of this system from tonight.

Image of TD3

Here is TD3 in the Atlantic tonight.

Tropical Depression #3

Quick post, TD3 will be announced at 11PM. Initial coordinates will be 35.5N/66.5W max winds 35mph. Minimum pressure 1007mb.

This system poses no threat to Florida or the east coast of the United States.

More Storms on Sunday

Very active weather day this afternoon. One tornado in Miami-Dade county and a funnel cloud over Boca Raton near the intersection of Palmetto Park Road and Powerline Road around 3:35pm. As of now it looks like more thunderstorms will be around tomorrow afternoon so we will have to look at the morning upper air parameters to get an idea of what kind of severe threat we may have. So please check back in the morning.

Also we are watching the area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas. Upper air conditions are starting to become a bit more favorable for development so I will be monitoring this area very closely, again more on this in the morning.

Low Over South Florida

The low that is currently over south Florida is producing some showers over Glades county and not much else at the moment. We had 1.57 inches of rain today, most of which fell before 7am from this system. Due to it being over land and some hostile wind shear development is not expected during the next 24 hours. But as th system moves over the Atlantic waters the shear should relax some and there is some possibility that it could get its act together.

I will have another update in the morning.

Rainy Future

We have been getting some very nice rainfall over the past week. On Tuesday here at Weather Central we had a rainfall rate of 12 inches an hour at 4:40pm. Overall that storm dropped over 2 inches of rain.

As far as tomorrow and Saturday go I think we will see some more heavy rain events. Currently the QPF for south Florida peaks around 2 inches. The system that may bring the heavy rain is being watched by the Hurricane Center and they may send a plane out tomorrow if there is any sign of development. Models have been run on this area and I will continue to monitor. Here is an image of the system from tonight.

Atlantic System Fizzles

The system I mentioned last night has fizzled and will not pose a threat to much of anything. Please check back tomorrow night for an update on this week's forecast, could be interesting if one model ends up being correct. The NAM is indicating possible tropical development by mid-week. This is not likely but will be watched. So please come back tomorrow night for a more complete update.

System Off the Coast of Africa

A very well defined area of low pressure has developed about 600 miles off the west coast of Africa. This system has the potential to develope for the next 48 hours before encountering cooler waters. It is very unusual to have this type of system with this organization for the second week of June.

The GFDL output of this system that ran tonight has it dissipating in the next 6 hours, we will see what happens to this system on Sunday.

Tropical Storm Barry

On the first day of Hurricane Season we get our second named storm, Barry. As of this writing we are having our strongest cell of this system pass over. Winds have been in the 20-25mph range and as of last hour a little over 1.73 inches of rain. That will be higher by the time I get the next update from the station here at Weather Central.

Barry looked so much better this afternoon when the center became visible on satellite and a burst of convection popped up. Tonight on infrared you can see how most of the rain is now removed from the center due to strong southwesterly shear being caused by a trough in the northern Gulf.

My forecast for Barry is right on with the NHC, coming ashore Saturday afternoon north of Tampa. No further strengthening is expected due to the storm structure.

The rain for SE Florida should start to move out by tomorrow afternoon and at this moment Sunday may not be too bad weather wise around here.

Also of note, Lake Okeechobee depth fell .05 feet to 8.89 feet. Rain from Barry should reverse this trend tomorrow.

Just a report of a tornado earlier in Cutler Ridge, power lines down in the area. This occurred around 9:50pm.

Lake Okee Record Low. Low to the Southeast

Just a couple quick notes...Lake Okeechobee hit a record low water level today with a depth of 8.94 feet. This is after tying the low yesterday at 8.97 feet.

Watching the area of disturbed weather to our southeast that will bring some much needed rain to the area. After looking at all the available model data tonight looks like the system will not become very potent. The actual track of the system appears to be towards the central west coast of Florida, this is after a some relocation of where the center of the system is supposed to be towards the east. This gives the impression that the area is heading more towards us. By tomorrow morning we will see rain in the area and will also know how much the storm will strengthen (if any at all) and a better guess of the future location of the weather.

Florida Hurricane Tax-Free Shopping

Here is an article about the tax-free shopping for hurricane supplies in Florida:

Link

June 1 through June 12 are the dates. Be prepared!!

Almost There

Just a few days to go before hurricane season 2007 will be underway. Hopefully by now I was to have had a new web site up, that has not happened. Do not worry I will be posting all the information here. From my personal analysis to model data I will publish here when there is something going on. In between you find almost anything else. Please check back.

Home weather station is back to normal with wind data not being uploaded again. I had to reset the weather station and it came right back up. Nice easy fix this time around. I will also have a link to the home weather data shortly here on the blog.

Have a good night.

A Bit of Rain

I am still getting the blog and a site set up for hurricane season so postings may still be sporadic at best, but I am here.

We did have a thunderstorm overnight around 3am, a very nice surprise. Also saw some scattered showers during the morning and some severe weather out west over the Everglades. Next best chance of rain will be Monday with the passing of a cold front, but at this time it looks somewhat light.

I will leave it at that for now and keep checking for updates over the next few weeks.