Hanna Getting a Bit Better Organized

Hanna is look somewhat better organized tonight compared to earlier today. As of 11PM maximum winds are 50MPH with a minimum pressure of 997mb. The official forecast calls for Hanna to move in a mostly westerly direction then as she reaches the middle Bahamas turns towards the northwest then north-northwest.

Below is the latest model map from FSU and you can see some consensus on where Hanna may go. But there are couple of outliers, including the very good NOGAPS. If the southerly motion that some of these models are forecasting will have to occur in the next 12 hours or so to be believable. Check back tomorrow morning for more information.

Gustav Getting Stronger, Where is Hanna Going?

I have been watching Gustav become stronger today and a little weaker with the 11PM advisory with a pressure of 948mb and maximum winds at 140mph. The forecast from the NHC is for Gustav to become a category 5 hurricane tomorrow and at least maintain category 4 status through landfall on Monday or Tuesday along the northern Gulf coast.

Hanna on the other hand was moving erratically late this afternoon and this evening. As of 11PM her maximum winds were at 50mph and the pressure has remained steady at 1000mb. The forecast track is still uncertain but south Florida remains in the forecast cone. The official forecast call for Hanna to continue moving in a more westerly direction until Wednesday when Hanna turns towards the northwest and is located in the eastern Bahama late Thursday. The forecast is certain to change as the models get a better handle on her so please check back for more tomorrow. Intensity forecast for Hanna does not strengthen her beyond a tropical storm at this time though there are a good number of models who do.

If you have not done so already please make sure you are prepared for whatever may come your way.

Gustav Now a Cat 4

From the NHC:

HURRICANE GUSTAV SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
200 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

....GUSTAV BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
...WESTERN EYEWALL DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE ISLE OF YOUTH...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE
JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE
OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN
PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND
CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GUSTAV. A HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GUSTAV WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST...NEAR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH...OR ABOUT 155 MILES...250 KM...EAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA AND ABOUT 110 MILES...180 KM...SOUTH OF HAVANA CUBA.

GUSTAV IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GUSTAV WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY ON SUNDAY...AND REACH THE NORTHERN
GULF BY MONDAY MORNING.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND ARE NOW NEAR 145
MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTAV IS AN EXTREMELY
DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. AN UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATION OF A SUSTAINED WIND OF
140 MPH...220 KM/HR...HAS BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE ISLE OF YOUTH. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND GUSTAV COULD BECOME A CATEGORY
FIVE HURRICANE EITHER BEFORE OR SHORTLY AFTER CROSSING WESTERN
CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 23 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR WHERE THE CENTER OF GUSTAV CROSSES WESTERN
CUBA...INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE IN THE DRY TORTUGAS AS GUSTAV
PASSES TO ITS WEST.

GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO
12 INCHES ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 25 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER FLORIDA KEYS
AND EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...21.6 N...82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB.

THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

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Funnel Cloud East of Pompano Beach

This morning I took the above photo from the parking lot at Costco in Pompano Beach, Florida. From where I was it appeared to be a funnel cloud but later the NWS stated that it was a waterspout. Special thanks to Clare, Kalie and Jamie who were with me at saw this event.

Of course when I spotted this I called the NWS and they shortly thereafter issued a Special Marine Warning and a strongly worded Special Weather Statement which included:

..WATERSPOUT DUE EAST OF POMPANO AIRPORT AT 956 AM EDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A WATERSPOUT DUE EAST OF THE POMPANO BEACH AIRPORT. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THIS SHOWER WAS MOVING NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COAST IN BETWEEN POMPANO BEACH AND DEERFIELD BEACH. THIS STORM WILL AFFECT... LIGHTHOUSE POINT... DEERFIELD BEACH... AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE WATERSPOUT MOVES ONSHORE IN WHICH CASE A TORNADO WARNING MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

The waterspout did not come ashore and the event that began at about 9:50am ended just before 10am.

Here is the Local Storm Report detailing the event:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 
303 PM EDT SAT AUG 23 2008 
  
.TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON 
  
.DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. 

           ..REMARKS.. 

0953 AM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 E POMPANO BEACH       26.23N 80.09W  
08/23/2008                   AMZ651             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER  

           SPOTTER BR264 REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD OFFSHORE POMPANO  
           BEACH VIEWED FROM I-95 AT SAMPLE ROAD. 

0955 AM     WATER SPOUT      2 E POMPANO BEACH       26.23N 80.09W  
08/23/2008                   AMZ651             FL   TRAINED SPOTTER  

           TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED WATERSPOUT EAST OF POMPANO BEACH 
           VIEWED FROM COPANS ROAD. 

Fay continues its track across Florida and is looking better than ever. Maximum winds are now 65mph with gusts to hurricane strength near Lake Okeechobee reported. The weather is calming down here in southeast Florida but getting more interesting for central Florida where there is currently a Tornado Warning in effect for several counties until 2:15PM.

Live Blog - Good Night

Thanks for reading my blog tonight. Time for bed. Depending on conditions we might try to do this again.

Fay at 11PM

Here is the 11PM summary of Fay:

25.3 / 81.9

Moving north at 9mph.

Pressure 995mb.

Winds at 60mph.

FLL - 20 KTS Last Hour

Fort Lauderdale had the strongest wind last hour with a reading of 22 knots (24mph). Rain has just begun here at the house.

Activity Approaching

Here you can see the feeder bands lining up for the next couple of hours. The official center of the storm is about 50 miles off the coast of Naples. Landfall will be tomorrow morning.

We are less than 30 minutes away from the next advisory and forecast pachage.

Rain is About to Begin Again

After a break from any significant weather radar is indicating that we have some coming ashore. Channel 7 is currently on showing all the people at the beach today.'

Two Tornado Warnings currently in effect, the one for Broward expires in three minutes.

Tornado Warning - Central Collier Conty

Until 10:30pm.

Tornado Warning - South Central Broward County

Tornado Warning until 10:15PM.

Recon Update

Latest message from the recon aircraft:

Location 25.0N/81.9W
Pressure 997mb
Max flight level winds were 58 knots in the southwest quadrant at 9:15PM ET.

Watch Update

SPC states that the severe threat remains for the entire watch area.

STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 837

VALID 190130Z - 190240Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..KERR..08/19/08

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

Currently in Pompano

Pompano Airport at 9PM (actually 8:53PM) had a temperature of 77F, barometer reading of 1010.2 (29.83 inches) and the wind is out of the east at 15mph with a gust of 23 in the past hour.

We are currently cloudy with no rain at the moment.

Waterspout Has Knocked Out Power in Hallendale

Here is the story from the Sun-Sentinel. They report this occured around 5:30PM.

Live Blog - Tropical Storm Fay

I am on the east coast but we are getting a good amount of weather over here. Just had a squall line drop .19 inches of rain since 8:04PM. Currently cloudy outside and radar indicates more rain shortly. Since 7AM we have had 2.33 inches of rain.

I am going to "live blog" for a while so check back for updates.

Tropical Storm Watch Issued

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties. I will have an expected weather break down tonight. Please keep an eye on the Twitter box for quick updates and use today to prepare for the storm.

Morning Models for Fay

There has been a shift to the east of the models this morning towards the east. If this trend continues then southeast Florida could see more of the core of the storm. Also the intensity models are showing a higher confidence that Fay could be a hurricane as it approaches Florida regardless which path she may take.

ALL INTERESTS in southern Florida must pay close attention to Fay.

Next advisory will be at 11am and the highlights will be over on the left side under the Twitter updates.

Stay tuned!

Depression Appears to be Forming

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE MONA
PASSAGE IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR
OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THIS AFTERNOON. NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO PORTIONS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
EASTERN CUBA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INTERESTS IN THESE
AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...THE REMAINDER
OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

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New Depression or Tropical Storm Tomorrow

Very quick note tonight. The system I have been watching all week and have been predicting to develop appears to be getting better organized and at this rate should be a tropical depression tomorrow morning and a tropical storm by afternoon or early evening. The only thing that could hinder this would be interaction with Puerto Rico.

I will update tomorrow evening at the latest with my prognosis with this storm (Fran) and its possible impacts on south Florida. If you have not yet started to get your emergency supplies please take some time to do that tomorrow.

New Systems in the Atlantic

As we approach the middle of August we are seeing activity ramp up in the Atlantic. The most notable is currently know as 92L. This system has become a bit better organized during the afternoon and evening. If this trend continues then the NHC may send a plane out tomorrow afternoon. Below is the current model map from The Weather Underground.

This is also an area of disturbed area west of this system and an area in the southern Gulf of Mexico. I will continue to watch these areas.

Locally we had almost an inch of rain here at weather central and it appears we may see another round of storms tomorrow afternoon. This was our third afternoon in a row of strong thunderstorms sweeping across the area from the west in the afternoon, today's rainfall was the greatest of the days.

Finally I would like to address a couple of comments about my blog. Some of you have asked why I do not update more frequently or at least on a regular basis. Time is the biggest challenge to posting. I work two jobs and have a great family, all of whom know how much I enjoy studying meteorology and sharing it with others. I do use my Twitter feed for quick and short updates but sometimes there is just not enough time.

I would like to share two blogs that I read on a very regular basis that can fill the gap when I am not around. The first one is from the Weather Underground. Dr. Jeff Master's shares a lot of information and I only wish I could compare this to what he does. The second is a almost daily discussion posted at Crown Weather. Again a very thorough run down of the tropics. Please check them out and bookmark them. You can also find the link on the right side of this page.

Have a good night.

Strong Storms May be Developing Over Southern Florida

From the SPC:


AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 091451Z - 091645Z

THE RISK FOR GUSTY AND PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR DEVELOPING STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA
...GENERALLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE...BETWEEN NOW AND 18-19Z. SOME HAIL
IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE NEED FOR A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND MORNING RAOBS SUGGEST THAT THE VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...CHARACTERIZED BY MID 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS...IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PENINSULA. AND...CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS...AIDED BY AN AREA OF STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION IN THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH.
WITH 20-25 KT MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER...STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY FAST...LIKELY ENHANCING THE RISK FOR AT
LEAST LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR
EASTERN COASTAL AREAS BETWEEN MIAMI AND MELBOURNE BECOMES MORE FULLY
MIXED BY 18-19Z. AN OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT ALONG THE
EAST COAST WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OUTFLOWS...PROBABLY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT.
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Tropical Depression 5 Forms

Here is the latest on watches and warnings from the NHC:

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE LOUISIANA COAST FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
WESTWARD TO INTRACOASTAL CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT WEST OF
INTRACOASTAL CITY TO PORT OCONNOR TEXAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

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Statement from the NHC

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 150
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS THE WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

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Watching Three Areas

Looks like the tropics are starting to become active again with three areas of disturbed weather we are now watching. The first one is around 35W and does not look like it will develop for the next couple of days.

The second is around 55W and is now moving into an ares less conducive for development. This wave could bring some storminess to the northern Leeward Islands in the next 24 to 48 hours.

Finally there is an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms in the Gulf of Mexico. Pressures are now falling and shear is fairly low. The NHC gives this area a moderate chance of development and they plan on sending a reconnaissance plane into the area later today.

As for south Florida today we are still looking for about a 70% chance of rain. There was a nice thunderstorm offshore Deerfield around 6AM producing some very nice lightning.

Further posts and Twitter updates as we go through today.

Possible Rain on Sunday and Watching the Tropics

Looks like the mostly rain free weekend we had in store may be interrupted by locally heavy rainfall and thunderstorms on Sunday. An area of weather to our southeast has been firing up some thunderstorms and this area appears to be heading towards the southeast coast of Florida. Keep an eye on the Twitter feed for the latest.

Tomorrow I will return to discuss the three area of tropical activity we currently have out there.